Petrol or EV for low mileage driver?

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Tesla is a good example, they've been increasing supply by about 60%pa for years, and probably will do so again this year, and they've been significantly increasing prices for 18months or so to manage delivery times, yet delivery dates have continued to lengthen.

Once supply constraints ease (ICE and EV), presumably the recent uplifts in new car prices will reverse?

Will the mass population* be able to afford new cars if prices do not adjust?  I don't think I am alone in that a year ago, I could afford a new car and today I could not even though employment situation and savings are unchanged.

* Mass population = all those who somehow buy a car on clever finance.

Herzlos

New car prices are only going to go up. However once supply/demand shifts you may get better deals.
Also once the new supply is back to normal the bonkers used car prices will start to correct.

Plenty of people can afford new cars, whether you are jealous of them or not.

Grumpy_chap

Herzlos said:

Plenty of people can afford new cars, whether you are jealous of them or not.

I'm not jealous of them. 

I merely stated that a year ago, I could afford a new car and now I cannot but my resources are unchanged so it is only supply side cost movement that changes the equation.

In fact, as recently as September, I was tempted by a new car deal - that same car would now be 30% higher.  Discounts gone and list price risen.  So, I could not afford today what I could have afforded then.

My reason for not buying in September was unknown time scale for return to office.  That event still remains unknown.  It was communicated it would be 4th April, but we await details...

Overall, I prefer not having the commute and walk most places - have only done couple of k miles rather than >30k miles before COVID.

iwb100

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Tesla is a good example, they've been increasing supply by about 60%pa for years, and probably will do so again this year, and they've been significantly increasing prices for 18months or so to manage delivery times, yet delivery dates have continued to lengthen.

Once supply constraints ease (ICE and EV), presumably the recent uplifts in new car prices will reverse?

Will the mass population* be able to afford new cars if prices do not adjust?  I don't think I am alone in that a year ago, I could afford a new car and today I could not even though employment situation and savings are unchanged.

* Mass population = all those who somehow buy a car on clever finance.

Mass population buy their cars on pcp or PCH deals so yes they will still be able to ‘afford’ new cars. 

Thrugelmir

Martyn1981 said:

iwb100 said:

Martyn1981 said:

gandalftheking said:

OP here again - so much great advice here. I think maybe a used Leaf for cash for 12 months+ until the EV market sorts itself out a bit.

Good plan. I would suggest you go for a second gen (2017+) model, as the first gen are a bit dated now, and range is not great, also suffer range degradation.
Then just have fun, so great to drive, instant torque, so confidence building for roundabouts, T junctions, and a pleasure to drive up (or down) hills, and even stop/go traffic.
But you will be hooked.

Purely personal opinion, but I'd also look at the Hyundai IONIQ* 28kWh or 38kWh depending on budget. Lovely car, and exceptionally efficient.

Not sure how long for the new BEV market to sort itself out. I see that a base Tesla model 3 now has Feb 23 delivery dates, unless you spec up the paint and/or wheels. Demand for BEV's is growing faster than supply, and expect the market to keep shifting in favour of BEV's ever faster as we head for mid decade.


*Just to confuse us all, the Hyundai IONIQ (caps) is an ICE based vehicle, available in HEV, PHEV and BEV. I don't know if Hyundai just liked the name so much they had to keep it, but when they later launched their purpose built BEV's, they decide to call the range Ioniq (lower case), such as the Ioniq 5, Ioniq 6 etc..

Demand for all cars is outstripping supply right now due to the semiconductor shortage and disruption of supplies caused by the Ukraine war. Electric or not new cars are in high demand and low supply. 

Tesla is a good example, they've been increasing supply by about 60%pa for years, and probably will do so again this year, and they've been significantly increasing prices for 18months or so to manage delivery times, yet delivery dates have continued to lengthen.

They've had little choice but to increase prices as the cost of raw materials has rocketed. A third of of the production of the EV being the battery and motor drive. Far higher proportion than the engine etc in an ICE vehicle. 

Grumpy_chap

iwb100 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Tesla is a good example, they've been increasing supply by about 60%pa for years, and probably will do so again this year, and they've been significantly increasing prices for 18months or so to manage delivery times, yet delivery dates have continued to lengthen.

Once supply constraints ease (ICE and EV), presumably the recent uplifts in new car prices will reverse?

Will the mass population* be able to afford new cars if prices do not adjust?  I don't think I am alone in that a year ago, I could afford a new car and today I could not even though employment situation and savings are unchanged.

* Mass population = all those who somehow buy a car on clever finance.

Mass population buy their cars on pcp or PCH deals so yes they will still be able to ‘afford’ new cars. 

Out of interest, do car companies ever refuse a sale on PCP?

I mean, at present, I really shouldn't be able to get credit based on income but we were thrown the interest free stuff when buying furniture and I wonder whether it would be exactly the same if we were after a car 

Herzlos

You'll still be credit checked to ensure you can afford it. Obviously the finance is secured against the car so the risk is mitigated somewhat compared to spending the same money on a holiday, but they won't let you take on payments they feel you can't afford. PCP also defers a lot of the capital repayment to bring the monthlies down further and make it more affordable.
I was seeing PCP's for a £20k car for under £200/month.

I think the interest free furniture stuff is slightly different - it's still going to be credit checked but I'm sure they price in some number of defaults and it's a fairly low capital amount.

iwb100

Grumpy_chap said:

iwb100 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Tesla is a good example, they've been increasing supply by about 60%pa for years, and probably will do so again this year, and they've been significantly increasing prices for 18months or so to manage delivery times, yet delivery dates have continued to lengthen.

Once supply constraints ease (ICE and EV), presumably the recent uplifts in new car prices will reverse?

Will the mass population* be able to afford new cars if prices do not adjust?  I don't think I am alone in that a year ago, I could afford a new car and today I could not even though employment situation and savings are unchanged.

* Mass population = all those who somehow buy a car on clever finance.

Mass population buy their cars on pcp or PCH deals so yes they will still be able to ‘afford’ new cars. 

Out of interest, do car companies ever refuse a sale on PCP?

I mean, at present, I really shouldn't be able to get credit based on income but we were thrown the interest free stuff when buying furniture and I wonder whether it would be exactly the same if we were after a car 

They do a credit check. And there is some algorithm that looks at earnings to project some sense of affordability. But afaik they don’t and can’t do affordability like a mortgage. If you have a good credit score and a job you probably get the finance.

And as above risk of lending is lower given they can get the asset back easily and further the monthly cost is relatively low in many cases for the level of borrowing. You are borrowing full amount minus deposit but only making payments on the depreciation. 

gandalftheking

Annnnnnyway, back to the ICE vs EV for mainly short trips debate....

Herzlos

gandalftheking said:

Annnnnnyway, back to the ICE vs EV for mainly short trips debate....

EV is far superior for mainly short trips - no issues with cars heating up, charging at home/destination means you'll rarely need to visit a petrol station (if ever) fuel and maintenance costs are much lower, you can access cheaper home electricity tariffs.

The only downsides are with the purchase - there are less EV's available on the 2nd hand market and nothing for banger money yet.