Market timers - when are you going back in?

adindas

Stock markets reaction to modern conflicts / wars

Source: CFA Institute

Malthusian

Aristotle67 said:

Yes, I guess it is another way of trying to time the market and the general advice regarding this is not to try it. But, as you say, it does seem to make sense at the moment. I think it is a question of what feels right, at least for me anyway, and that is sitting tight. When most people pile lumps into their investments I wonder how wise it is to follow suit? Gordon Gekko made the point that "sheep get slaughtered!"

People piling lumps into their investment at the moment are the opposite of sheep. Sheep are selling investments en masse bleating "nuclear war is coming" "the debt-fuelled global economy is collapsing" "let's wait until things are more settled" etc. That's why the markets are falling.

Always remember that MSE forum regulars are not the general public. MSE forum regulars are essentially mad, in the sense of "not agreeing with the social consensus".

eskbanker

Malthusian said:
MSE forum regulars are essentially mad

Speak for yourself!

Nice to read about 'mad' rather than MAD just now though....

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Stock markets reaction to modern conflicts / wars

Source: CFA Institute

Bottom line is that stock markets will react to company fundamentals. 

Albermarle

Malthusian said:

Aristotle67 said:

Yes, I guess it is another way of trying to time the market and the general advice regarding this is not to try it. But, as you say, it does seem to make sense at the moment. I think it is a question of what feels right, at least for me anyway, and that is sitting tight. When most people pile lumps into their investments I wonder how wise it is to follow suit? Gordon Gekko made the point that "sheep get slaughtered!"

People piling lumps into their investment at the moment are the opposite of sheep. Sheep are selling investments en masse bleating "nuclear war is coming" "the debt-fuelled global economy is collapsing" "let's wait until things are more settled" etc. That's why the markets are were falling.

Always remember that MSE forum regulars are not the general public. MSE forum regulars are essentially mad, in the sense of "not agreeing with the social consensus".

Up dated your post on latest info .

 European markets are up around 5% today on average.

Of course no mention of it in the media, who were quick to report on 'plunging' markets a few days ago.

Thrugelmir

Albermarle said:

Malthusian said:

Aristotle67 said:

Yes, I guess it is another way of trying to time the market and the general advice regarding this is not to try it. But, as you say, it does seem to make sense at the moment. I think it is a question of what feels right, at least for me anyway, and that is sitting tight. When most people pile lumps into their investments I wonder how wise it is to follow suit? Gordon Gekko made the point that "sheep get slaughtered!"

People piling lumps into their investment at the moment are the opposite of sheep. Sheep are selling investments en masse bleating "nuclear war is coming" "the debt-fuelled global economy is collapsing" "let's wait until things are more settled" etc. That's why the markets are were falling.

Always remember that MSE forum regulars are not the general public. MSE forum regulars are essentially mad, in the sense of "not agreeing with the social consensus".

Up dated your post on latest info .

 European markets are up around 5% today on average.

Of course no mention of it in the media, who were quick to report on 'plunging' markets a few days ago.

Retail investors buying the dip? Major markets are highly correlated these days. 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Stock markets reaction to modern conflicts / wars

Source: CFA Institute

Bottom line is that stock markets will react to company fundamentals. 

In the very long run yes all companies will be ruled by the fundamental, that is where the equilibrium is. But you will never now when that long run will start. It could 5 years, etc.

Just look at BABA (Alibaba) now. Who could fail this company fundamental, profitability, you name any profitability measure, they will meet, a lot of cash, etc?? How long they have been under performing almost two year now.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Stock markets reaction to modern conflicts / wars

Source: CFA Institute

Bottom line is that stock markets will react to company fundamentals. 

Just look at BABA (Alibaba) now. Who could fail this company fundamental, profitability, you name any profitability measure, they will meet, a lot of cash, etc?? How long they have been under performing almost two year now.

Chinese companies carry enormous political risk. The Chinese version of capitalism is somewhat different to the West's. Maximising shareholder returns isn't one of the key objectives set by the state. 

Prism

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Stock markets reaction to modern conflicts / wars

Source: CFA Institute

Bottom line is that stock markets will react to company fundamentals. 

In the very long run yes all companies will be ruled by the fundamental, that is where the equilibrium is. But you will never now when that long run will start. It could 5 years, etc.

Just look at BABA (Alibaba) now. Who could fail this company fundamental, profitability, you name any profitability measure, they will meet, a lot of cash, etc?? How long they have been under performing almost two year now.

Could well be one of the best performing companies in the world going forward but the added risk of only being able to hold ADRs reduces the price significantly. The same with most of the Chinese tech stocks.

adindas

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Stock markets reaction to modern conflicts / wars

Source: CFA Institute

Bottom line is that stock markets will react to company fundamentals. 

In the very long run yes all companies will be ruled by the fundamental, that is where the equilibrium is. But you will never now when that long run will start. It could 5 years, etc.

Just look at BABA (Alibaba) now. Who could fail this company fundamental, profitability, you name any profitability measure, they will meet, a lot of cash, etc?? How long they have been under performing almost two year now.

Could well be one of the best performing companies in the world going forward but the added risk of only being able to hold ADRs reduces the price significantly. The same with most of the Chinese tech stocks.

Could be but remember reasonable number of big companies have dropped out from S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ Composite index or even went bankrupt. All of them used to be fundamentally sound companies.

A few dinosaurs tech companies which are still in the indexes for instance IBM, AT&T are now struggling.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2021/03/16/avoid-ibm-stock---its-fighting-the-future/?sh=62448bac3dac

Keeping eyes on the Company fundamental is only one aspect in making judgement in the long run the others are the things like environment, the ability to adapt. the management,

It Is not the Strongest of the Species that Survives But the one who constantly adapt to the environment.