Market timers - when are you going back in?

Aristotle67

Bobziz said:

So you're happy to lose this year's ISA allowance then ? As Thrug said, you can put it in your s&s ISA as cash and invest when you're comfortable doing so.

Is an alternative option to put this year's allowance into a Cash Isa with a bank or BS and after 6 April add next year's allowance, with the intention of transferring the balance to a S&S Isa when feeling comfortable enough to invest? That way if the period of non-investment is not short term the funds would attract interest in the Cash Isa, though admittedly not very much?

Steve182

Aristotle67 said:

Bobziz said:

So you're happy to lose this year's ISA allowance then ? As Thrug said, you can put it in your s&s ISA as cash and invest when you're comfortable doing so.

Is an alternative option to put this year's allowance into a Cash Isa with a bank or BS and after 6 April add next year's allowance, with the intention of transferring the balance to a S&S Isa when feeling comfortable enough to invest? That way if the period of non-investment is not short term the funds would attract interest in the Cash Isa, though admittedly not very much?

I agree, but if you got 1% PA interest on £20K over 6 months before transferring that would just about be enough for a meal for 2 with wine in a cheap restaurant!

mears1

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

Steve182

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

Mission193

People really do make me laugh.

markets go up and down and if you are wanting a quick buck then don’t put your hard earned money into the stock market.

if you are gonna invest for 15/20 years then who cares where the market is. You will never time the market. Please don’t put your money in if you are not prepared to do this.

Before you invest please look at the fundamentals of a business. 

mears1

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

Thrugelmir

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

Very easy to lose money on the stock markets by having flutters. The real test for your risk tolerance will be when the broader markets move downwards in uninson. Assigned risk ratings to collective funds will mean something tangible rather just being a random number. . 

Steve182

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

I've been relatively fortunate in that I started investing seriously in 2016 so had the tide with me for 4 years before any major upset. In just one month, mid Feb to mid March 2020 covid (temporarily) wiped out much of that 4 years growth, but at no point have I ever sat on an overall loss, which helps bolster risk tolerance.

Audaxer

Mission193 said:

if you are gonna invest for 15/20 years then who cares where the market is. 

I agree you can't time the market with any certainty, but now is a better time to invest a lump sum for 15/20 years than at the end of last year. It might be an even better time to invest next month, but it might not - no-one really knows.

k6chris

Audaxer said:

Mission193 said:

if you are gonna invest for 15/20 years then who cares where the market is. 

I agree you can't time the market with any certainty, but now is a better time to invest a lump sum for 15/20 years than at the end of last year. It might be an even better time to invest next month, but it might not - no-one really knows.

And that's my point.  'knowing' when to reduce equity holding is one thing, knowing when to increase it is quite another!