Market timers - when are you going back in?

Nebulous2

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

I've been relatively fortunate in that I started investing seriously in 2016 so had the tide with me for 4 years before any major upset. In just one month, mid Feb to mid March 2020 covid (temporarily) wiped out much of that 4 years growth, but at no point have I ever sat on an overall loss, which helps bolster risk tolerance.

I've had moderate earnings, paying for a house which was probably above my income level, with the bonus being I have an LGPS pension. 

We found ourselves with more money than we've ever had before almost a year ago after I took early retirement, and didn't know what to do. We ended up filling two S&S ISAs each and keeping the rest in cash / near cash. After being over 10% up on the ISAs, we are now about 2% up, and could be under water with another couple of big daily drops. We would be better off if we had stuck to world trackers, rather than me trying to pick my own funds. 

So we missed the big gains you had, and came in very late. People tell you that you can't time the market, but its a strange position finding yourself with a lot of cash at retirement, never having had it before, and suddenly the pressure is on with real money. I'm happy with our 50 / 50 arrangement, putting half in equities and keeping half in reserve.... 

Thrugelmir

Nebulous2 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

I've been relatively fortunate in that I started investing seriously in 2016 so had the tide with me for 4 years before any major upset. In just one month, mid Feb to mid March 2020 covid (temporarily) wiped out much of that 4 years growth, but at no point have I ever sat on an overall loss, which helps bolster risk tolerance.

So we missed the big gains you had, and came in very late. People tell you that you can't time the market, but its a strange position finding yourself with a lot of cash at retirement, never having had it before, and suddenly the pressure is on with real money. I'm happy with our 50 / 50 arrangement, putting half in equities and keeping half in reserve.... 

In the broadest sense that's why it's important to understand what you are invested in. Very easy to get swept along in the security of what everybody else is doing. Big gains can rapidly evaporate. Cash is king. Not a number on a computer screen. 

Steve182

Nebulous2 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

I've been relatively fortunate in that I started investing seriously in 2016 so had the tide with me for 4 years before any major upset. In just one month, mid Feb to mid March 2020 covid (temporarily) wiped out much of that 4 years growth, but at no point have I ever sat on an overall loss, which helps bolster risk tolerance.

I've had moderate earnings, paying for a house which was probably above my income level, with the bonus being I have an LGPS pension. 

We found ourselves with more money than we've ever had before almost a year ago after I took early retirement, and didn't know what to do. We ended up filling two S&S ISAs each and keeping the rest in cash / near cash. After being over 10% up on the ISAs, we are now about 2% up, and could be under water with another couple of big daily drops. We would be better off if we had stuck to world trackers, rather than me trying to pick my own funds. 

So we missed the big gains you had, and came in very late. People tell you that you can't time the market, but its a strange position finding yourself with a lot of cash at retirement, never having had it before, and suddenly the pressure is on with real money. I'm happy with our 50 / 50 arrangement, putting half in equities and keeping half in reserve.... 

All I can say is don't give up. You will succeed in the long term if you persevere. Stock market investments should be a for a good 10+ years. Typically expect growth of 5% to 9% a year on average, not accounting for the effects of inflation.

If you are still mainly invested in the types of funds that were most successful during the previous cycle (ie growth funds) you should consider diversifying a bit.  They will surely come back into favour sooner or later, but it may be a while. 

Nebulous2

Steve182 said:

Nebulous2 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

mears1 said:

Steve182 said:

First and foremost, I consider the success of my investment portfolio of lower importance than the plight of Ukraine. 

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21, for reasons unrelated to Ukraine. Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

My plan is now to use that money to invest strategically, looking for opportunities to invest in companies who may benefit from the current global situation, which may exist for some considerable amount of time, but who's share price does not yet reflect this opportunity. 

Just one example of several that I'm currently researching are LNG shipping companies. 

Hadn't realised that some people had come out of the market completely. 

So, is the global market too uncertain now to plough a 6 figure amount into global trackers, with a view of 10 years? 

 Or does buying when fund prices are lower make more sense, if one intends to buy trackers anyway? Although  the price of some global trackers have not dropped a lot from 1 day to the other, even though the ftse has dropped. Eg hsbc ftse all world index fund. But VG ftse developed world index ex uk has. Make sense of that!

I've not left the market completely.

My post reads -

I moved much of my portfolio into more defensive stocks end of 21

Then seeing the writing on the wall with the impending invasion of Ukraine I sold much of my remaining investment in growth stocks mid Feb, before the invasion.

So I'm still about 85% in equities, albeit with not much in US or in growth stocks.

I'm heavily invested in mining, especially gold, and have a fair bit in "dirty" energy.

I'm a very active investor with a lot of direct share holdings and own few trusts or funds.

My own approach may not be successful, certainly this is not an approach I would recommended for the majority of retail investors. 

I didn’t read closely enough! Thank you for clarifying that. You must do a lot of research to have your depth understanding in investing.  If you feel comfortable in sharing the names of the trusts and funds that you do own, would really appreciate it.

I just try to work out which way the wind is blowing to decide what regions, sectors or types of companies I want to invest in, then use tools like Stockopedia and Simply Wall Street to compare companies with their peers. Once I have a shortlist I then try to do as much DD on those companies as I can before investing. 

I'm currently invested in the following IT's -

Scottish Mortgage
Ashoka India
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunty Fund

All 3 are well down from their highs last Autumn. With the benefit of hindsight I now wish I'd sold them too.

 
Thank you for sharing. I had a bit of a small flutter with Scottish Mortgage. It's drop is dispiriting but using it to gauge my risk tolerance for real! This website is great for sharing experiences, lots to learn from the wisdom of others. 

I've been relatively fortunate in that I started investing seriously in 2016 so had the tide with me for 4 years before any major upset. In just one month, mid Feb to mid March 2020 covid (temporarily) wiped out much of that 4 years growth, but at no point have I ever sat on an overall loss, which helps bolster risk tolerance.

I've had moderate earnings, paying for a house which was probably above my income level, with the bonus being I have an LGPS pension. 

We found ourselves with more money than we've ever had before almost a year ago after I took early retirement, and didn't know what to do. We ended up filling two S&S ISAs each and keeping the rest in cash / near cash. After being over 10% up on the ISAs, we are now about 2% up, and could be under water with another couple of big daily drops. We would be better off if we had stuck to world trackers, rather than me trying to pick my own funds. 

So we missed the big gains you had, and came in very late. People tell you that you can't time the market, but its a strange position finding yourself with a lot of cash at retirement, never having had it before, and suddenly the pressure is on with real money. I'm happy with our 50 / 50 arrangement, putting half in equities and keeping half in reserve.... 

All I can say is don't give up. You will succeed in the long term if you persevere. Stock market investments should be a for a good 10+ years. Typically expect growth of 5% to 9% a year on average, not accounting for the effects of inflation.

If you are still mainly invested in the types of funds that were most successful during the previous cycle (ie growth funds) you should consider diversifying a bit.  They will surely come back into favour sooner or later, but it may be a while. 

Oh, I've no intention of giving up. It's money we don't currently need, and may never need. 

We're mainly in global trackers, and they've done ok. I picked some active funds, no out and out growth funds, and they haven't done so well. Lesson learned there. 

My point was more that the tech valuations were looking high March / April last year, when we got the money and while everyone here says you can't time the market, the thought of investing it all at once felt a bit like putting it all on red. 

We also couldn't / can't decide how much to do to our house, or indeed how long we might stay here, so we may need some of the money we haven't invested. 

adindas

Nebulous2 said

Oh, I've no intention of giving up. It's money we don't currently need, and may never need. 

We're mainly in global trackers, and they've done ok. I picked some active funds, no out and out growth funds, and they haven't done so well. Lesson learned there. 

My point was more that the tech valuations were looking high March / April last year, when we got the money and while everyone here says you can't time the market, the thought of investing it all at once felt a bit like putting it all on red. 

We also couldn't / can't decide how much to do to our house, or indeed how long we might stay here, so we may need some of the money we haven't invested. 

When people say you can't time the market you will need to see from the context, their background and what type of investment they are holding so the reason for saying that.
If you are holding globally diversified fund, the volatility and the price movement of the fund like this is relatively small so it is not worthy timing the market. Keep in mind timing the market you will need to perform analysis. Also noone could perfectly time the market. But you only need to get 50%+ right the beat another alternative e.g. not timing the market.

But when you want to invest in individual high growth stock, tech stocks, a fund containing a lot of high growth stocks especially in the bear market, timing the market will make a significant different. For this you will to read the stock market news, report regularly, do your own research, DDs. Understanding the stock market behavior, technical analysis, fundamental as well as stock valuation will help. 

In high growth tech stocks, a fund containing a lot of high growth stocks the swing between high and low could be 100%+ within a month. That is significant not to pay attention.

If for instance you know (or highly likely) that there will be good chance the central bank will increase interest rate higher that  is anticipated next week a it is not better you wait for a week as you could get the same stock for a cheaper price ? Also, if you see a company will be reporting its earning Nextweek and highly like will not meet the expectation, it is not better you wait for a week ??

Also it is not correct to say "Everyone says that". Keep in mind the traders (swing or day traders), the hedge funds are timing the market "EVERY SINGLE TRADING DAY". But in many cases the traders, hedge fund have a good understanding of the stock market behavior. Also they are not only relying on the news but they are also using also technical analysis, fundamental analysis as well as know how to value the stock to time the market, But timing the market watching the news itself could also make a significant different.

Also do not forget there is nothing to prevent people to time the market and to be combined with Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), drip feeding especially in the bear market. Timing the market in this case is just when to trigger starting/ stopping the DCA / drip feeding engine. It does not make sense to just blindly buy the stock, just because you have money available even when the stock price is in the high swing. In the bear market the price tend to nave in a channel. 

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Nebulous2 said

Oh, I've no intention of giving up. It's money we don't currently need, and may never need. 

We're mainly in global trackers, and they've done ok. I picked some active funds, no out and out growth funds, and they haven't done so well. Lesson learned there. 

My point was more that the tech valuations were looking high March / April last year, when we got the money and while everyone here says you can't time the market, the thought of investing it all at once felt a bit like putting it all on red. 

We also couldn't / can't decide how much to do to our house, or indeed how long we might stay here, so we may need some of the money we haven't invested. 

If you are holding globally diversified fund, the volatility and the price movement of the fund like this is relatively small so there is no point of timing the market.

Global funds have over time become reliant on a smaller and smaller pool of companies to drive them upwards. 

badger09

Aristotle67 said:

Bobziz said:

So you're happy to lose this year's ISA allowance then ? As Thrug said, you can put it in your s&s ISA as cash and invest when you're comfortable doing so.

Is an alternative option to put this year's allowance into a Cash Isa with a bank or BS and after 6 April add next year's allowance, with the intention of transferring the balance to a S&S Isa when feeling comfortable enough to invest? That way if the period of non-investment is not short term the funds would attract interest in the Cash Isa, though admittedly not very much?

I don't think anyone has replied yet so...

Yes, that's a perfectly viable option to preserve this year's ISA allowance. Just make sure you choose an instant/easy access Cash ISA, rather than fixed rate/fixed term, which usually entail penalties if you want to withdraw or transfer before the end of the fixed term.

Not much interest to be gained and transfer time could mean a slight delay when you're ready to invest, compared to having cash sitting uninvested in your S&S ISA.   

Aristotle67

badger09 said:

Aristotle67 said:

Is an alternative option to put this year's allowance into a Cash Isa with a bank or BS and after 6 April add next year's allowance, with the intention of transferring the balance to a S&S Isa when feeling comfortable enough to invest? That way if the period of non-investment is not short term the funds would attract interest in the Cash Isa, though admittedly not very much?

I don't think anyone has replied yet so...

Yes, that's a perfectly viable option to preserve this year's ISA allowance. Just make sure you choose an instant/easy access Cash ISA, rather than fixed rate/fixed term, which usually entail penalties if you want to withdraw or transfer before the end of the fixed term.

Not much interest to be gained and transfer time could mean a slight delay when you're ready to invest, compared to having cash sitting uninvested in your S&S ISA.   

Thanks, badger09. I weighed up both options and have put this year's allowance into an S&S ISA with AJ Bell where it will sit as cash until I am ready to commit. I am missing out but, as you have pointed out, not that much and could potentially miss out on more by not being able to invest immediately when I feel ready.

Some time from April 6 onwards I will make a decision with next year's allowance. If I choose a S&S ISA I might go with another platform such as Nutmeg so that there is a bit more diversity in the portfolio. If I decide that one S&S ISA is enough for me in the climate then I doubt I would use a cash or fixed rate/term 1 year ISA as I can beat the ISA rate with a one year fixed-term bond. Then again, if I have enough funds to do both, I could. Depends what happens with markets and interest rates.

P933alilli

Aristotle67 said:

badger09 said:

Aristotle67 said:

Is an alternative option to put this year's allowance into a Cash Isa with a bank or BS and after 6 April add next year's allowance, with the intention of transferring the balance to a S&S Isa when feeling comfortable enough to invest? That way if the period of non-investment is not short term the funds would attract interest in the Cash Isa, though admittedly not very much?

I don't think anyone has replied yet so...

Yes, that's a perfectly viable option to preserve this year's ISA allowance. Just make sure you choose an instant/easy access Cash ISA, rather than fixed rate/fixed term, which usually entail penalties if you want to withdraw or transfer before the end of the fixed term.

Not much interest to be gained and transfer time could mean a slight delay when you're ready to invest, compared to having cash sitting uninvested in your S&S ISA.   

Thanks, badger09. I weighed up both options and have put this year's allowance into an S&S ISA with AJ Bell where it will sit as cash until I am ready to commit. I am missing out but, as you have pointed out, not that much and could potentially miss out on more by not being able to invest immediately when I feel ready.

Some time from April 6 onwards I will make a decision with next year's allowance. If I choose a S&S ISA I might go with another platform such as Nutmeg so that there is a bit more diversity in the portfolio. If I decide that one S&S ISA is enough for me in the climate then I doubt I would use a cash or fixed rate/term 1 year ISA as I can beat the ISA rate with a one year fixed-term bond. Then again, if I have enough funds to do both, I could. Depends what happens with markets and interest rates.

badger09 said:

Aristotle67 said:

Bobziz said:

So you're happy to lose this year's ISA allowance then ? As Thrug said, you can put it in your s&s ISA as cash and invest when you're comfortable doing so.

Is an alternative option to put this year's allowance into a Cash Isa with a bank or BS and after 6 April add next year's allowance, with the intention of transferring the balance to a S&S Isa when feeling comfortable enough to invest? That way if the period of non-investment is not short term the funds would attract interest in the Cash Isa, though admittedly not very much?

I don't think anyone has replied yet so...

Yes, that's a perfectly viable option to preserve this year's ISA allowance. Just make sure you choose an instant/easy access Cash ISA, rather than fixed rate/fixed term, which usually entail penalties if you want to withdraw or transfer before the end of the fixed term.

Not much interest to be gained and transfer time could mean a slight delay when you're ready to invest, compared to having cash sitting uninvested in your S&S ISA.   

Yes, i had thought of this option but then its another way of trying to time the market isnt it? But i think it makes sense at the moment to me anyway! I'm drip feeding £500 per month into VLS60  and my personal rate of return is -4.29% atm which isnt much really. I read in the mail last week that during conflicts the markets generally start to improve after between 3-6 months so in another 'few' months if things sort themselves out, Putin is assassinated/ the Russians run out of funds/lose, then its intuitive that most people would want to pile lumps into their investments isnt it? 

Aristotle67

Collyflower1 said:

Yes, i had thought of this option but then its another way of trying to time the market isnt it? But i think it makes sense at the moment to me anyway! I'm drip feeding £500 per month into VLS60  and my personal rate of return is -4.29% atm which isnt much really. I read in the mail last week that during conflicts the markets generally start to improve after between 3-6 months so in another 'few' months if things sort themselves out, Putin is assassinated/ the Russians run out of funds/lose, then its intuitive that most people would want to pile lumps into their investments isnt it? 

Yes, I guess it is another way of trying to time the market and the general advice regarding this is not to try it. But, as you say, it does seem to make sense at the moment. I think it is a question of what feels right, at least for me anyway, and that is sitting tight. When most people pile lumps into their investments I wonder how wise it is to follow suit? Gordon Gekko made the point that "sheep get slaughtered!"