The time has come to buy more units during this ‘’sale’’

wiseonesomeofthetime

Well, today, the S&S ISA I opened and funded last April, has finally hit a negative paper value, after hitting the glossy heights of +10% return during the year.

I knew it was coming, however, as it is a planned 10-year investment, I am not too concerned atm.

Won't be investing 2022-23 year's allowance in a hurry come April though.

[Deleted User]

wiseonesomeofthetime said:

Won't be investing 2022-23 year's allowance in a hurry come April though.

Hi,

why?

If you're happy with a ten year period, buy now, buy cheap.

MEM62

The general wisdom is that you cannot guess / time the market.  With my ISA I make regular monthly payments.  However, over the past couple of years I have made three lump sum payments as I had the cash available.  When our wedding in Greece was cancelled in March 2020 I stuck £3K in.  Using todays values the units I bought are now worth £4,496.  The £16K of units I purchased last October is currently £15,334.  I made a final payment to use up the last few hundred quid of this year's ISA allowance this morning.  

Prism

wiseonesomeofthetime said:

Well, today, the S&S ISA I opened and funded last April, has finally hit a negative paper value, after hitting the glossy heights of +10% return during the year.

I knew it was coming, however, as it is a planned 10-year investment, I am not too concerned atm.

Won't be investing 2022-23 year's allowance in a hurry come April though.

I will be doing the opposite and for once likely to contribute a higher amount at the start of the tax year. Normally I just contribute when I get spare cash, regardless of the markets.

adindas

k6chris said:

GeoffTF said:

"Don't buy the dip":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvkqIDE9itg

Good video, though it focuses on a continuous drip feed over 30 years.  Many people on this forum seem to have a large pot of cash waiting to go back in, and certainly now is 10-20% better than a few months ago.  Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

It seems there are some misconception (or disingenuous comparison) that buying the dip mean you need go full scale using the money you have at that moment in one go such as shown in the previous post video clip link

https://youtu.be/UvkqIDE9itg with the headlines Don't Buy The Dip!

What preventing people "to combine both buy the dip and drip feeding (Dollar Cost Averaging down) ???"

You drip feed 1 stocks (or small amount of money) at a time but only add when there is "quite significant drop in price" due to for instance news (war, nuclear, interest rate hike unexpectedly, etc), earning season, etc. Only drip feed buy a small chunk in the red days, not in the green days where the price has moved up significantly on that particular days; not blindly drip feed buying at any price even the price has moved up significantly reaching all time high, instead of waiting for another pull back before starting the drip feeding clock again.

If it is already moving up significantly and do not pull back, stop FOMO chasing it and divert the rest of your dry powder to find other similar opportunities e.g any assets that currently sale at a discounted price. Not necessarily stocks, could be used for other funds, or other type of assets. So your money will not be sitting idle, but to be used to a better opportunity where your money work harder.

You will be more flexible doing this if you use platforms or assets that allow people an instant execution and/or where you could buy/sale various types of assets.

In the current "bear market", shares or fund with a lot of growth stocks in the portfolio are moving up and down significantly, not uncommon moving within a channel.

adindas

coastline said:

k6chris said:

GeoffTF said:

"Don't buy the dip":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvkqIDE9itg

Good video, though it focuses on a continuous drip feed over 30 years.  Many people on this forum seem to have a large pot of cash waiting to go back in, and certainly now is 10-20% better than a few months ago.  Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

Video is summed up in the early minutes. Waiting to buy at a set percentage below the recent high won't work. It might go up 100% before it falls 20% and it could be years away. Buy the dip is just a general term for buying after any sell off. Many ways to do it but most people just simply drip feed monthly or add money when available.
I use charts and lower indicators for buying and selling and yes nothing works all of the time. There's certainly a link with indicators such as RSI and Full Stochastic shown on the chart. Could even top up at a moving average such as 50 day although we are way below that now.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

On another thread in July last year I highlighted that all indicators were on the top in all timeframes. That's doesn't happen often . Here's the weekly chart today which shows lower indicators near the bottom of the range . Look at RSI and Stochastic. Market of course is lower and generally a good time to buy when the weekly is oversold. Again it doesn't happen that often.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Here's the monthly chart in July last year. All indicators on the top so long term overbought.

usa+m+jun30.png (640×614) (bp.blogspot.com)

Today they are moving lower. What happens next who knows as monthly indicators don't play out that often. If they do then the market will have crashed.

AVvXsEgcL3k-821Je9tSZTBwPey65Pdz_xARTqBUraTe21HNZVxigcIyNDU_EMHlAFe-8IB2-8YrFvmxviFmhhdzKYP-O5RGy846lJY_eamcghQGPaN0Hichg4RGBuGWuPy6f-vAGB4f___szlJLcBzJ8k8Zjv4jbX4-a-QpHx9w8gim3sMJVvipLQnap72Vyg=w640-h614 (640×614) (googleusercontent.com)

Fear and Greed Index, The ViX are useful the gauge general mood in the stock market. RSI, MACD, EMA for particular stocks/funds.

But the strategists Analysts on fast money traders are using the "S&P Short Range Oscillator" to gauge the short range pulse of S&P500, especially usefull in the bear market.

https://www.sposcillator.com/

Unfortunately this oscillator is not available for free.

coastline

adindas said:

coastline said:

k6chris said:

GeoffTF said:

"Don't buy the dip":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvkqIDE9itg

Good video, though it focuses on a continuous drip feed over 30 years.  Many people on this forum seem to have a large pot of cash waiting to go back in, and certainly now is 10-20% better than a few months ago.  Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

Video is summed up in the early minutes. Waiting to buy at a set percentage below the recent high won't work. It might go up 100% before it falls 20% and it could be years away. Buy the dip is just a general term for buying after any sell off. Many ways to do it but most people just simply drip feed monthly or add money when available.
I use charts and lower indicators for buying and selling and yes nothing works all of the time. There's certainly a link with indicators such as RSI and Full Stochastic shown on the chart. Could even top up at a moving average such as 50 day although we are way below that now.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

On another thread in July last year I highlighted that all indicators were on the top in all timeframes. That's doesn't happen often . Here's the weekly chart today which shows lower indicators near the bottom of the range . Look at RSI and Stochastic. Market of course is lower and generally a good time to buy when the weekly is oversold. Again it doesn't happen that often.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Here's the monthly chart in July last year. All indicators on the top so long term overbought.

usa+m+jun30.png (640×614) (bp.blogspot.com)

Today they are moving lower. What happens next who knows as monthly indicators don't play out that often. If they do then the market will have crashed.

AVvXsEgcL3k-821Je9tSZTBwPey65Pdz_xARTqBUraTe21HNZVxigcIyNDU_EMHlAFe-8IB2-8YrFvmxviFmhhdzKYP-O5RGy846lJY_eamcghQGPaN0Hichg4RGBuGWuPy6f-vAGB4f___szlJLcBzJ8k8Zjv4jbX4-a-QpHx9w8gim3sMJVvipLQnap72Vyg=w640-h614 (640×614) (googleusercontent.com)

Fear and Greed Index, The ViX are useful the gauge general mood in the stock market. RSI, MACD, EMA for particular stocks/funds.

But the strategists Analysts on fast money traders are using the "S&P Short Range Oscillator" to gauge the short range of S&P500 in the bear market.

https://www.sposcillator.com/

Unfortunately this oscillators is not available for free.

Not a day trader so that doesn't apply to me. I trade short term normally from the daily timeframe but I've highlighted in my previous post the weekly timeframe is near oversold. Generally a good time to buy any funds ,IT's ,ETF's. Monthly timeframe usually doesn't play out unless there's a huge move downwards such as the 2008 GFC.
There's enough out there for free for anyone to gauge sentiment but it's a case of finding genuine data. For all it's negatives the likes of twitter and youtube do have very informative subscribers.
A 5 year view of stocks above the 50 day and 100 day average. All on the bottom. More clues unless we are crashing but we are trying to buy dips ?

Dow Jones Industrial Average vs % of DJIA Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators (indexindicators.com)

Dow Jones Industrial Average vs % of DJIA Stocks Above 100-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators (indexindicators.com)

UK 100 vs % of UK 100 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators (indexindicators.com)

UK 100 vs % of UK 100 Stocks Above 100-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators (indexindicators.com)

This guy updates every day and shows all the stuff I've mentioned on the first two pages. Daily , weekly and monthly timeframes. The connection is there with the index price and the indicators but most people choose not to believe. What can I do ? At the end of the day the long term annual performance of the MSCI World Index is 10.3% since launch . Most funds over time won't get there. So to me if I ride the waves say four times a year I'll get there . Not for everyone but I'll be in that top quartile on the Trustnet tables apart from specialist funds which of course won't be there a year later. Always evolving. Sorry if I'm boring people but we are talking about timing the market.

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

GeoffTF

k6chris said:
Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

The problem is that the market may be resilient for the next few months and then crash. There is no substitute for not getting out of your depth. Getting out of your depth gradually does not work. You need to decide how much risk you can take. The old adage says do not put more on the stock market than you can afford to lose.

Audaxer

GeoffTF said:

k6chris said:
Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

The problem is that the market may be resilient for the next few months and then crash. There is no substitute for not getting out of your depth. Getting out of your depth gradually does not work. You need to decide how much risk you can take. The old adage says do not put more on the stock market than you can afford to lose.

GeoffTF said:

k6chris said:
Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

The old adage says do not put more on the stock market than you can afford to lose.

The saying "Never invest money that you can't afford to lose" seems a bit out of date as most retirees have significant sums invested that they can't afford to lose as it provides needed income.

Thrugelmir

Audaxer said:

GeoffTF said:

k6chris said:
Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

The problem is that the market may be resilient for the next few months and then crash. There is no substitute for not getting out of your depth. Getting out of your depth gradually does not work. You need to decide how much risk you can take. The old adage says do not put more on the stock market than you can afford to lose.

GeoffTF said:

k6chris said:
Perhaps drip feed that in over the next few months.  Guessing how low the market will go is impossible.

The old adage says do not put more on the stock market than you can afford to lose.

The saying "Never invest money that you can't afford to lose" seems a bit out of date as most retirees have significant sums invested that they can't afford to lose as it provides needed income.

Perhaps they need to consider themselves fortunate to have benefitted from the longest bull market in history. Rather than expect the good times to keep on rolling indefinately. You can't have your cake and eat it too.