Is it a bad idea to buy a new non electric car right now?

Chris_English

sevenhills said:

goldieandblackie said:

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

For those that don't live near cities, it won't be a problem.

I think that it will be; as fuel duty stops being paid the government will want to replace it, and road pricing seems a likely target.

I agree with you on the range issue. I bought a shiny new Model S, and when trying to use it on long trips had to plan on a recharge about every 180 miles on the continent if I wanted to drive at my normal speed.

Flight3287462

DrEskimo said:

sevenhills said:

goldieandblackie said:

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

For those that don't live near cities, it won't be a problem.

Many don't like the range of an electric car, it may be 200 miles when advertised, but in winter and when the car is 2+ years old. What is the range then?

Mine is 5yrs old and I haven't noticed a change in range for the last 3yrs I've had it.

Battery health is still 97%.

You learn how the range is affected by temperature, conditions and speed.

And how many extra cells you are caring around that make up the shortfall when the batteries output starts to deteriorate?

Lithium batteries deteriorate quite markedly over time.  The fact you don't notice the deterioration is down to the inbuilt grace capacity.

At some point depending on a number of factors (number of charge cycles how the battery has been charged, temperature etc) the range will fall off a cliff.  You will get 8 years or so but then who knows but I suspect the life expectancy of car will drop below the ~14 years that ICE cars tend to last for.

Petriix

Flight3287462 said:

DrEskimo said:

sevenhills said:

goldieandblackie said:

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

For those that don't live near cities, it won't be a problem.

Many don't like the range of an electric car, it may be 200 miles when advertised, but in winter and when the car is 2+ years old. What is the range then?

Mine is 5yrs old and I haven't noticed a change in range for the last 3yrs I've had it.

Battery health is still 97%.

You learn how the range is affected by temperature, conditions and speed.

And how many extra cells you are caring around that make up the shortfall when the batteries output starts to deteriorate?

Lithium batteries deteriorate quite markedly over time.  The fact you don't notice the deterioration is down to the inbuilt grace capacity.

At some point depending on a number of factors (number of charge cycles how the battery has been charged, temperature etc) the range will fall off a cliff.  You will get 8 years or so but then who knows but I suspect the life expectancy of car will drop below the ~14 years that ICE cars tend to last for.

Real world data says you're wrong. Lithium based batteries tend to see the greatest degradation within the first 12 months, then it slows and remains fairly constant. By only using the cells within the middle 90% of their voltage range, the vast majority of the potential degradation is avoided.

With batteries typically warrantied to retain > 70% capacity after 7 years, the reality is that manufacturers are confident most EVs won't be anywhere near troubling this. I anticipate having around 80% of my original range after 10 years. That means my MG5 will still have more range than a brand new 40kWh Leaf.

DrEskimo

Flight3287462 said:

DrEskimo said:

sevenhills said:

goldieandblackie said:

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

For those that don't live near cities, it won't be a problem.

Many don't like the range of an electric car, it may be 200 miles when advertised, but in winter and when the car is 2+ years old. What is the range then?

Mine is 5yrs old and I haven't noticed a change in range for the last 3yrs I've had it.

Battery health is still 97%.

You learn how the range is affected by temperature, conditions and speed.

And how many extra cells you are caring around that make up the shortfall when the batteries output starts to deteriorate?

Lithium batteries deteriorate quite markedly over time.  The fact you don't notice the deterioration is down to the inbuilt grace capacity.

At some point depending on a number of factors (number of charge cycles how the battery has been charged, temperature etc) the range will fall off a cliff.  You will get 8 years or so but then who knows but I suspect the life expectancy of car will drop below the ~14 years that ICE cars tend to last for.

I know there is a buffer, which is why many see the car reporting over 100% SoH at the start.

The degradation pattern is quite the opposite to what you describe from all the data I have seen. Most data has shown an initial decrease, but then a very gradual linear pattern thereafter. 

As you say, age is not really a good marker. It's mileage. A know a big factor is how much it is rapid charged, but beyond that most other factors will have only minor effects.

Where are you getting you conclusions that they will be unusable after 8yrs? Why would my car see 3% degradation in the first 5yrs (maybe 5% including buffer), but then large degradation (i.e. range will fall off the cliff) in the next 3years?

Money_Grabber13579

A few people seem to be making the assumption that as the batteries only have an 8 year warranty, the car will be scrap after that period of time. Working on that basis, the vast majority of ICE cars would be scrap after 3 years… 

I accept the point that there is a bit of an unknown as to what will happen batteries when they get to 10, 15, 20 years old but the way things are going at the minute, it doesn’t look like batteries will be the problem which results in scrapping.

Chris_English

Money_Grabber13579 said:

A few people seem to be making the assumption that as the batteries only have an 8 year warranty, the car will be scrap after that period of time. Working on that basis, the vast majority of ICE cars would be scrap after 3 years… 

I accept the point that there is a bit of an unknown as to what will happen batteries when they get to 10, 15, 20 years old but the way things are going at the minute, it doesn’t look like batteries will be the problem which results in scrapping.

It may not be common, but there’s the occasional case being reported.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mercedes-owner-could-scrap-car-22886801

Herzlos

Chris_English said:

Money_Grabber13579 said:

A few people seem to be making the assumption that as the batteries only have an 8 year warranty, the car will be scrap after that period of time. Working on that basis, the vast majority of ICE cars would be scrap after 3 years… 

I accept the point that there is a bit of an unknown as to what will happen batteries when they get to 10, 15, 20 years old but the way things are going at the minute, it doesn’t look like batteries will be the problem which results in scrapping.

It may not be common, but there’s the occasional case being reported.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mercedes-owner-could-scrap-car-22886801

£15k for a hybrid battery sounds horrendous, but being a hybrid I assume you can drive it without one?

Chris_English

Herzlos said:

Chris_English said:

Money_Grabber13579 said:

A few people seem to be making the assumption that as the batteries only have an 8 year warranty, the car will be scrap after that period of time. Working on that basis, the vast majority of ICE cars would be scrap after 3 years… 

I accept the point that there is a bit of an unknown as to what will happen batteries when they get to 10, 15, 20 years old but the way things are going at the minute, it doesn’t look like batteries will be the problem which results in scrapping.

It may not be common, but there’s the occasional case being reported.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mercedes-owner-could-scrap-car-22886801

£15k for a hybrid battery sounds horrendous, but being a hybrid I assume you can drive it without one?

Maybe, but in the same way that you can drive a car with a holed piston it’d not be a good solution. 

The odd case like this isn’t enough to put me off, but it shows that the claims that it’s never an issue are a bit wide of the mark.

DrEskimo

Chris_English said:

Herzlos said:

Chris_English said:

Money_Grabber13579 said:

A few people seem to be making the assumption that as the batteries only have an 8 year warranty, the car will be scrap after that period of time. Working on that basis, the vast majority of ICE cars would be scrap after 3 years… 

I accept the point that there is a bit of an unknown as to what will happen batteries when they get to 10, 15, 20 years old but the way things are going at the minute, it doesn’t look like batteries will be the problem which results in scrapping.

It may not be common, but there’s the occasional case being reported.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mercedes-owner-could-scrap-car-22886801

£15k for a hybrid battery sounds horrendous, but being a hybrid I assume you can drive it without one?

Maybe, but in the same way that you can drive a car with a holed piston it’d not be a good solution. 

The odd case like this isn’t enough to put me off, but it shows that the claims that it’s never an issue are a bit wide of the mark.

I've seen more than a few examples of cells failing and then causing an issue. Most manufacturers will opt to replace the entire battery, rather than identify and swap the faulty cell. But third party repairers are available that can do individual cell replacement for much cheaper.

I have yet to ever see a case of a car being scrapped because of battery degradation though. Very early 2011 Leafs with the chameleon battery chemistry and lack of battery cooling saw some quite high degradation making the range quite low (around 60% health, which for a 21kWh battery results in a low range of about 40miles), but still useable...Not seen anything close to that sort of degradation from any other BEV though.

A quick look on eBay should that the Mercedes mild hybrid 13.5kWh pack could be bought second hand for around £2k, so the £15k repair cost must be due to inflated dealer rates or the fact the battery is very difficult to remove due to being a hybrid...

Herzlos

Chris_English said:

Herzlos said:

Chris_English said:

Money_Grabber13579 said:

A few people seem to be making the assumption that as the batteries only have an 8 year warranty, the car will be scrap after that period of time. Working on that basis, the vast majority of ICE cars would be scrap after 3 years… 

I accept the point that there is a bit of an unknown as to what will happen batteries when they get to 10, 15, 20 years old but the way things are going at the minute, it doesn’t look like batteries will be the problem which results in scrapping.

It may not be common, but there’s the occasional case being reported.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mercedes-owner-could-scrap-car-22886801

£15k for a hybrid battery sounds horrendous, but being a hybrid I assume you can drive it without one?

Maybe, but in the same way that you can drive a car with a holed piston it’d not be a good solution. 

The odd case like this isn’t enough to put me off, but it shows that the claims that it’s never an issue are a bit wide of the mark.

Not really, it probably runs for 95% of the time using the combustion engine anyway. It's not as if the battery is providing power most of the time.

So it's more like driving around with an LPG conversion fitted that you don't use.