Is it a bad idea to buy a new non electric car right now?

Herzlos

Chris_English said:

Arklight said:Do we seriously believe car manufacturers are putting effort into new ICE lines? 

Yes, they are.

I've got two new cars arriving this year, a GR Yaris and Lotus Emira; both are traditional cars with manual gearboxes and internal combustion engines, and both are very good.

Both having already been developed.
I don't think anyone is spending serious R&D on ICE technology beyond some minor tweaking. 
The remaining generations of combustion engines won't be notably different from the current ones. Some manufacturers likely won't even launch ICE variants.

troffasky

Arklight said:Do we seriously believe car manufacturers are putting effort into new ICE lines? 

They aren't putting "no effort" in, just enough effort to see them through the transition. Most effort will be going elsewhere. Manufacturers are queueing up to put a date on when they're stopping ICE sales.
Car manufacturers that would have traditionally built and developed their own engine designs will be buying in engines for their run-out ICE models.
To give one example, Hyundai have downsized an ICE development facility and are moving staff to electrification projects:
https://www.kedglobal.com/newsView/ked202112230013

Chris_English said:

Yes, they are.

I've got two new cars arriving this year, a GR Yaris and Lotus Emira; both are traditional cars with manual gearboxes and internal combustion engines, and both are very good.

The Emira is an interesting example to give in response to Arklight's question, given that it's Lotus's final ICE vehicle.

troffasky

Username03725 said:

I meant to type near-monopoly, given the number of filling stations that have closed since supermarkets started selling fuel. The point remains though; take away the widespread choice of supermarket fuel and the remaining places would find it easier to raise their prices.

Are you sure about this? Supermarkets have 19% of sites and 49% of petrol sales:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/382178/fuel-sales-through-supermarkets-in-the-united-kingdom-uk-by-fuel-type/

49% is not a "near-monopoly" in my book, and I doubt it is in anybody else's either. The trend is only going in one direction, though. High fixed costs and low margins mean that only the biggest sites will survive as sales drop.

troffasky

tightauldgit said:

I think the second hand market on EVs is still questionable due to the lifetime of batteries so that problem will have to be addressed one way or another. 

EV residuals are slightly better than ICE at 48% vs 40%, although this is from a year ago:

https://www.carwow.co.uk/blog/do-electric-cars-depreciate

It might just be due to the novelty and relative scarcity of EVs.

Arklight

Chris_English said:

Arklight said:Do we seriously believe car manufacturers are putting effort into new ICE lines? 

Yes, they are.

I've got two new cars arriving this year, a GR Yaris and Lotus Emira; both are traditional cars with manual gearboxes and internal combustion engines, and both are very good.

I am sure they are fine cars, but the lead in time to develop vehicles is 3 -5 years +. Cars coming out now would have been signed off last decade. And they are entering a market which is changing very rapidly, party due to government and partly due to consumer sentiment. The demand for ICE vehicles can survive neither of things, let alone both.

goldieandblackie

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

troffasky

Fuel duty will need to be replaced with something else so maybe local authorities charging for road use could be the replacement?

Chris_English

troffasky said:

Fuel duty will need to be replaced with something else so maybe local authorities charging for road use could be the replacement?

Khan in London is already suggesting this.

Any pretence that the policies were about pollution or congestion seems to be falling away.

sevenhills

goldieandblackie said:

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

For those that don't live near cities, it won't be a problem.

Many don't like the range of an electric car, it may be 200 miles when advertised, but in winter and when the car is 2+ years old. What is the range then?

DrEskimo

sevenhills said:

goldieandblackie said:

Unfortunately councils are seeing taxing cars, trucks,vans etc as a cash cow for driving into city centres and this will only grow in size.

For those that don't live near cities, it won't be a problem.

Many don't like the range of an electric car, it may be 200 miles when advertised, but in winter and when the car is 2+ years old. What is the range then?

Mine is 5yrs old and I haven't noticed a change in range for the last 3yrs I've had it.

Battery health is still 97%.

You learn how the range is affected by temperature, conditions and speed.