Energy news in general

Ultrasonic

QrizB said:

Mstty said:

How does this sit with your own personal small rise in the price cap @QrizB does any of this make sense to you with the data you are seeing?

I honestly don't see how you can get to £2800 based on the published data.

It could be that Ofgem have their own private source of wholesale price data that is considerably higher than the day-ahead spot prices I'm using, and/or there are a bunch of additional add-ons (more SoLR costs, perhaps) that haven't been announced yet.

Do you know how close your current methodology would have got you to the April cap?

QrizB

Ultrasonic said:

QrizB said:

Mstty said:

How does this sit with your own personal small rise in the price cap @QrizB does any of this make sense to you with the data you are seeing?

I honestly don't see how you can get to £2800 based on the published data.

It could be that Ofgem have their own private source of wholesale price data that is considerably higher than the day-ahead spot prices I'm using, and/or there are a bunch of additional add-ons (more SoLR costs, perhaps) that haven't been announced yet.

Do you know how close your current methodology would have got you to the April cap?

My prediction for April was about £150 high. The only change to my methodology since then has been to switch from Drax's day-ahead electricity prices to Nordpool's.

The effect of this change is relatively small. So far this period:

• February - Drax 15.7p/kWh, Nordpool 16.2p.
  
• March - Drax 23.7p, Nordpool 25.0p
• April - Drax 17.2p, Nordpool 17.7p

If I get time tonight I'll go back and recalculate my April forecast based on Nordpool figures, to see what effect that has.

Effician

This is just a thought & simplistic approach , perhaps this winters costs are already set if you take the futures for winter gas is around 7.5p/kwh , add the other costs of the network lets say 50% so 3.75p,  making 11.25p/ kwh for the consumer.

If we had unlimited storage we could buy large scale at today rates but we don't so we can't .

bristolleedsfan

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529560630813933572

bristolleedsfan

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/25/money-energy-bills-every-household-rishi-sunak-rescue-plan/

Thrugelmir

fryedslyce said:

bristolleedsfan said:

The boss of the UK's energy regulator has warned that the energy price cap is expected to rise to around £2,800 in October.

Jonathan Brearley told MPs that the price cap, now at £1,971, would increase by nearly £1,000, due to continued volatility in the gas market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61562657

£829 is not nearly a £1,000, it's almost as if he's deliberately trying to scaremonger, and of course the media will lap it up.

Social media scaremongers and misquotes. 

Ofgem’s chief executive, Jonathan Brearley, told parliament’s business, energy and industrial strategy committee (BEIS) the figure was provisional but was based on the most accurate current estimate.

Provisional being the operative word. Certainly didn't say "would". 

dry_ice

Energy Lies?

Hi. 

I had a smart meter fitted recently by a nice man from Octopus Energy. And he told me that the UK doesn't have an energy shortage at all. That in fact we have plenty of our own gas and leccie - in fact we sell a lot of it - and the huge price rises are purely exploitation with the war as an excuse. 

I took that with a pinch of salt. 

But then I asked friends, and a couple of people who've worked in the energy industry said that "We certainly have no shortage ... our islands produce more renewable energy than we can use", and "There certainly is no shortage of electricity or gas. The generators are profiteering at our expense."

Can anybody verify this?? 

Is there a genuine reason for the enormous hike in prices, or are we being taken for a ride? Is there anything we can do? I feel like we're the consumers and should be able to revolt against this... but we're basically powerless. No? We can't just refuse to pay them, as we'd have no energy. 

What if we all switched provider on the same day? What if we all cancelled our direct debits? 

These huge energy companies are reporting billions of dollars in profits. We need a revolution.

markin

Cyber criminals target desperate householders with bogus electricity rebates as Action Fraud reveals they have received 800 complaints about fake Ofgem emails in just FOUR DAYS

markin

dry_ice said:

Energy Lies?

Hi. 

I had a smart meter fitted recently by a nice man from Octopus Energy. And he told me that the UK doesn't have an energy shortage at all. That in fact we have plenty of our own gas and leccie - in fact we sell a lot of it - and the huge price rises are purely exploitation with the war as an excuse. 

I took that with a pinch of salt. 

But then I asked friends, and a couple of people who've worked in the energy industry said that "We certainly have no shortage ... our islands produce more renewable energy than we can use", and "There certainly is no shortage of electricity or gas. The generators are profiteering at our expense."

Can anybody verify this?? 

Is there a genuine reason for the enormous hike in prices, or are we being taken for a ride? Is there anything we can do? I feel like we're the consumers and should be able to revolt against this... but we're basically powerless. No? We can't just refuse to pay them, as we'd have no energy. 

What if we all switched provider on the same day? What if we all cancelled our direct debits? 

These huge energy companies are reporting billions of dollars in profits. We need a revolution.

We are awash with Gas from LNG, As we have 4 LNG terminals, We are piping it to the EU at max, And burning it to send power on the interconnections, But its temporary, We don't have storage to keep any for winter, And as soon as Europe build temporary terminals we will be competing with Europe again for the tankers.

You can go on the Octopus Tracker to get cheap power and Gas but it will rise certainly at the end of summer and going into winter.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6360323/energy-price-cap-to-rise-to-2-800-in-october-ofgem-chief-exec/

https://youtu.be/4TenksrSL_0

spot1034

dry_ice said:

Energy Lies?

Hi. 

I had a smart meter fitted recently by a nice man from Octopus Energy. And he told me that the UK doesn't have an energy shortage at all. That in fact we have plenty of our own gas and leccie - in fact we sell a lot of it - and the huge price rises are purely exploitation with the war as an excuse. 

I took that with a pinch of salt. 

But then I asked friends, and a couple of people who've worked in the energy industry said that "We certainly have no shortage ... our islands produce more renewable energy than we can use", and "There certainly is no shortage of electricity or gas. The generators are profiteering at our expense."

Can anybody verify this?? 

Is there a genuine reason for the enormous hike in prices, or are we being taken for a ride? Is there anything we can do? I feel like we're the consumers and should be able to revolt against this... but we're basically powerless. No? We can't just refuse to pay them, as we'd have no energy. 

What if we all switched provider on the same day? What if we all cancelled our direct debits? 

These huge energy companies are reporting billions of dollars in profits. We need a revolution.

Whilst there are times when we most certainly are awash with energy, there are other times when the reverse is the case. As others have said we have a surplus of gas at present when demand is low, but in cold winter conditions we do not have sufficient domestic supplies to meet our needs and are therefore dependent on imports which cannot be relied upon - perhaps much less so now that there is likely to be greater demand from other countries for gas from the sources we import from to replace that lost from Russia. 

With electricity, the nightmare scenario which we would find hard to deal with would be a prolonged period of calm weather in the depth of winter - high pressure sitting over not just the UK but quite possibly much of northern Europe meaning frosty nights, cold foggy days, demand as high as it ever gets and very little generation from either wind or solar. We have already seen days when large users have been asked to cut their consumption.

All of this is largely the result of poor decisions made over the past couple of decades by governments not just here but in other countries, primarily in Europe. This is not a problem unique to the UK as you seem to be suggesting.