Energy news in general

[Deleted User]

Did anyone see Sir Dieter Helm** on Newsnight last night (6th Jan)? Apparently he is issuing a report today, Friday.

"Had ministers acted on the market reviews they commissioned, such as Sir Dieter Helm’s 2017 cost of energy review, many of these problems could have been avoided."

See also https://www.ft.com/content/0dc34e5c-1471-4227-9db2-582aa5aa6f96

**Professor of Energy Policy and Official Fellow in Economics, New College, Oxford. 

GingerTim

"Following further highs in wholesale prices and the costs associated with the raft of supplier failures seen in the last few months, Cornwall Insight is forecasting that the domestic default tariff price cap for Summer 2022 will increase to approximately £1,865 per annum for a typical dual fuel customer, with the potential for further increases between now and February 2022 – when the cap is announced by Ofgem – still apparent. This represents an increase of just under 50% on the current Winter 2021-22 cap level of £1,277 per annum – itself a record high – and an increase of around 12% on our previous estimate of the Summer 2022 cap from October 2021.

With wholesale prices having surged beyond the records seen at the start of October due to ongoing supply concerns for electricity and gas, geopolitical pressures affecting the European gas market and colder weather associated with the winter season, our forecasts reflect these prevailing conditions. Furthermore, our current forecast for the Winter 2022-23 default tariff price cap stands at approximately £2,240 per annum, although we note that this figure may face considerable change before it is formally announced in August 2022."

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/price-cap-set-for-46-rise-for-summer-2022-winter-2022-23-cap-may-exceed-2000/

QrizB

GingerTim said:

... Cornwall Insight is forecasting that the domestic default tariff price cap for Summer 2022 will increase to approximately £1,865 per annum for a typical dual fuel customer ...

Pah, ameteurs. They need to read our thread and update their forecast

Less flippantly, I hope they're right but I'm pretty sure they're going to be wrong. The April cap will be higher than that.

We'll find out who's right in a month!

GingerTim

I fear you are right!

Sea_Shell

Winter 22-23 is going to be the real sting at those levels!!!!

Winter 21-22 is just the warm up act 


(pun intended!)

DiseasedBunny

Sea_Shell said:

Winter 22-23 is going to be the real sting at those levels!!!!

Winter 21-22 is just the warm up act 


(pun intended!)

Don’t worry, Boris is taking control of the issue personally 🙈🙈🙈

[Deleted User]

Further to my earlier post…

Gambling is not an energy policy - Sir Dieter Helm

http://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/energy/energy/luck-is-not-an-energy-policy-the-cost-of-energy-the-price-cap-and-what-to-do-about-it-2/

[Deleted User]

Deleted_User said:

Did anyone see Sir Dieter Helm** on Newsnight last night (6th Jan)? Apparently he is issuing a report today, Friday.

See also https://www.ft.com/content/0dc34e5c-1471-4227-9db2-582aa5aa6f96

**Professor of Energy Policy and Official Fellow in Economics, New College, Oxford. 

Is the FT item behind a paywall? It wasn’t when I read and posted it. 

It can be read on Twitter if you have it. 

[Deleted User]

I note from the Ofgem daily bulletin that, despite the current situation, which has now been ongoing for about 3 months, that companies are still applying for supply licences. And Ofgem is still granting them. 

spot1034

Presumably no one would want to enter the market right now but might it be the case that when wholesale prices drop to more reasonable levels, a new entrant unencumbered by losses might be able to offer more attractive rates? I appreciate that the costs of bailing out customers of failed companies will be shared amongst all consumers, but suppliers who have been forced to offer the SVT to existing customers coming off fixes will be wanting to claw their losses back by building it into future prices. Is this an opportunity, or is there a reason why it wouldn't work like that?