Energy news in general

wrf12345

TOU contracts presumably negate some of those balancing costs and should definitely have zero s/c option...

MattMattMattUK

wrf12345 said:

TOU contracts presumably negate some of those balancing costs and should definitely have zero s/c option...

Or not, as they still have to pay for the rest of network costs. 

The_Green_Hornet

Britain’s wind farms paid to switch off at a record rate

Britain’s wind farms were paid to switch off for 13 per cent of the time they should have been generating last year, a record level of disconnections that highlights the strains on the UK’s electricity system.

Planned cable outages in Scotland and high summer winds added to existing pressures on the network, the National Energy System Operator (Neso) said on Thursday.

The grid operator had to pay £2.7bn during the 2024-25 financial year to make sure electricity supply and demand was constantly balanced, with wind farms a “major driver” of the bill.

Britain’s wind farms paid to switch off at a record rate [FT subscription needed]

Scot_39

Afaik Seagreen still the biggest single wind farm off Scotland had the dubious honour of receiving 40% of Scotlands curtailment payments for sub 10% of total installed wind generation capacity.

And is asked to reduce or cut generation 71% of time. 

Much worse than the 13% average.

And more worryingly since SSEN are i believe the area TNO and DNO - and SSE Group subsidiary a major investor in the field - they must surely have been aware entirely likely.

Just another classic example of the lack of joined up thinking and oversight.  

Squandering ovef £1bn on curtailment charges last year - on ave around £30 per connection - which have been doubling annually.

Last year grid balancing cost us over £40 on 2700kWh tdcv - official NG ESO 2024 figure.

Add £30 for CfDs, add financing costs for new grid - pylons, cables, hvdc links etc etc.

But with curtailment payments rising rapidly - grid thermal alone forecadt to peak £3bn pa - treble last years combined demand and grid total - and GW more capicity installed ahead of grid upgrades -- the cost on our power bills is only going to increase. 

Unless something radical happens to contract terms - including retrospectively.
IMO it won't with the current 95% by 2030 target - giving suplliers the negotiating edge - as that target is estimated to need c£40bn of private investment per year. 
Round 6 auction 57% CfD rate increase for Fos wind - just the start of them using that leverage.

michaels

We wouldn't build a Nike station or a ccgt without a grid connection large enough to use the power generated so why do we do it with wind?

pfpf

anyone know if emoncms wind forcast tool is finished? its not updated in recent days.

Effician

Don't know what's happening with them but try https://agilepredict.com/B/ to keep you going.

Scot_39

michaels said:

We wouldn't build a Nike station or a ccgt without a grid connection large enough to use the power generated so why do we do it with wind?

Govt policy - past and present.

Timescales

Big stations take years to build.  Sizewell if goes to plan 10 yrs - Hinkley didnt its still not complete, nor did EDFs Flamanville 3 it was meant to share proven design with (11yrs late nearly 12).
Renewables licensed with as little as 2 year deliveries since ar1 in 2015 [earliest delivery FOS wind at a premium £120/MWh iirc]., Sep 24 AR6 includes 2026/7 year target delivery.

Scale

Far more locations per year too.  

Grid cos were essentially sitting on large backlog of connection requests small medium and large etc - they have been given different rules now to prioritise.

Distribution

Auctions for licenses with generation levels, locations agreed completely out of proportion to /  relative to local demand and date targets that take insufficient account of reality of grid infrastructure delivery.

Delays to Grid

Planning - with rounds of nay sayers objections (councils, local MPs, inc Greens coleader ni WM iirc on a pylon project to deliver green energy, nimbys, environmental groups etc)
Regulator review and authorisations timescales (articles talk of 2 yrs of negotiations with Ofgem before final approval late 2024 on EGL2 HVDC project just one recent example).

Too much focus on wholesale costs  - not delivered to our doors costs -  especially when dropping - not so much fanfare as rising dramatically since.

Costs / Risks(*)

Its widely estimated "95% by 2030" needs an accelerated roll out and around £40bn pa private investment in just renewables until then.  Add grid to support - connections, curtailment bottlenecks and added capacity - maybe another £11-15+ bn per year (just the 3 TNOs - thats the very HV grid end operators forecast £55bn to £77bn 5 yr spend - and EM/DESNZ/ESO has brought forward some of  £22bn).

And turns out (*) that private investment - just isn't working that well anymore - like the "freeze" / delay to Hornsea 4 -  huge 2.4GW project - despite a 57% CfD £/MWh rate rise for fixed off shore wind in AR6 it was sold at vs AR4 2 years earlier.  Thats serious power - about 10% of UKs average summer demand - imagine the accusations of folly if Ofgem authorised £10bn on pylones - and was cancelled in end.

Non Private Alternatives

British Energy budget reduced to £8.3bn - £2.,5bn of which now it seems split to support SMR nuclear - so £5.8bn. It pales by comparison to scale required. 

And alternatives to the £50bn+ - like direct govt CAPEx or taxation to replace that c50bn pa  are particularly problematic in UK. CAPEx - with its already higher govt gilt rates on debt vs international competitors.  With debt interest alone well over £100bn in recent years already vying with DfE as the third biggest spending "dept". £250bn at current rates would add c£12bn pa extra interest pa by 2030.

On direct wage taxation instead - pushing towards extra well over 10% (based on OBRs est £9.4bn savings net to us / cost to treasury for recent 2% ni cuts) - so back to the c30-35% rates of 60s/70s - and higher upper rates - the 60s coincidently also last time debt to gdp so consistently this high. Arguably where they should be heading anyway to stabilise or heaven forbid actually aim to reduce that debt (somethng that hasnt really happened this century - possibly if count 19/20 - deficits since 2020/21 (but could be a year out on that).

michaels

Scot_39 said:

michaels said:

We wouldn't build a Nike station or a ccgt without a grid connection large enough to use the power generated so why do we do it with wind?

Govt policy - past and present.

Timescales

Big stations take years to build.  Sizewell if goes to plan 10 yrs - Hinkley didnt its still not complete, nor did EDFs Flamanville 3 it was meant to share proven design with (11yrs late nearly 12).
Renewables licensed with as little as 2 year deliveries since ar1 in 2015 [earliest delivery FOS wind at a premium £120/MWh iirc]., Sep 24 AR6 includes 2026/7 year target delivery.

Scale

Far more locations per year too.  

Grid cos were essentially sitting on large backlog of connection requests small medium and large etc - they have been given different rules now to prioritise.

Distribution

Auctions for licenses with generation levels, locations agreed completely out of proportion to /  relative to local demand and date targets that take insufficient account of reality of grid infrastructure delivery.

Delays to Grid

Planning - with rounds of nay sayers objections (councils, local MPs, inc Greens coleader ni WM iirc on a pylon project to deliver green energy, nimbys, environmental groups etc)
Regulator review and authorisations timescales (articles talk of 2 yrs of negotiations with Ofgem before final approval late 2024 on EGL2 HVDC project just one recent example).

Too much focus on wholesale costs  - not delivered to our doors costs -  especially when dropping - not so much fanfare as rising dramatically since.

Costs / Risks(*)

Its widely estimated "95% by 2030" needs an accelerated roll out and around £40bn pa private investment in just renewables until then.  Add grid to support - connections, curtailment bottlenecks and added capacity - maybe another £11-15+ bn per year (just the 3 TNOs - thats the very HV grid end operators forecast £55bn to £77bn 5 yr spend - and EM/DESNZ/ESO has brought forward some of  £22bn).

And turns out (*) that private investment - just isn't working that well anymore - like the "freeze" / delay to Hornsea 4 -  huge 2.4GW project - despite a 57% CfD £/MWh rate rise for fixed off shore wind in AR6 it was sold at vs AR4 2 years earlier.  Thats serious power - about 10% of UKs average summer demand - imagine the accusations of folly if Ofgem authorised £10bn on pylones - and was cancelled in end.

Non Private Alternatives

British Energy budget reduced to £8.3bn - £2.,5bn of which now it seems split to support SMR nuclear - so £5.8bn. It pales by comparison to scale required. 

And alternatives to the £50bn+ - like direct govt CAPEx or taxation to replace that c50bn pa  are particularly problematic in UK. CAPEx - with its already higher govt gilt rates on debt vs international competitors.  With debt interest alone well over £100bn in recent years already vying with DfE as the third biggest spending "dept". £250bn at current rates would add c£12bn pa extra interest pa by 2030.

On direct wage taxation instead - pushing towards extra well over 10% (based on OBRs est £9.4bn savings net to us / cost to treasury for recent 2% ni cuts) - so back to the c30-35% rates of 60s/70s - and higher upper rates - the 60s coincidently also last time debt to gdp so consistently this high. Arguably where they should be heading anyway to stabilise or heaven forbid actually aim to reduce that debt (somethng that hasnt really happened this century - possibly if count 19/20 - deficits since 2020/21 (but could be a year out on that).

Thanks.  Still seems like madness to build power plants of any sort where there is insufficient grid to distribute (for more than a short period) the power but where they are offered a take or pay production contract.  And really counterproductive as it is effectively giving RE critics a free hit.

The_Green_Hornet

UK gas plants in line for large windfall payments to keep lights on this winter

More UK gas plants will be in line for windfall payments to help keep the lights on this winter after generators received multimillion-pound payouts last winter.

Britain’s energy system operator expects the UK’s winter power supplies to reach their highest level in five years, in part due to a rising number of gas plants willing to generate electricity during the colder months.

Gas plants are typically called on to generate electricity when wind and solar power are in short supply. During still winter periods when freezing temperatures drive demand for energy higher, they can often request large fees to fire up their generators.

In early January this year, two gas power plants in Hertfordshire and Flintshire, north Wales, were paid a total of £17.8m to run their gas turbines between 4pm and 7pm when demand for electricity was forecast to reach its peak.

UK gas plants in line for large windfall payments to keep lights on this winter | Energy | The Guardian