Energy news in general

victor2

StevieD54 said:

I’m confused. Last week, the MSE Energy Club prediction was that over the next year, if I do nothing, I’ll pay -1% than I am paying today. Now it’s suddenly become +2%. Where did that +7% jump in April come from? 

Unfortunately, they are just predictions. Reality is often a little different!

spot1034

StevieD54 said:

I’m confused. Last week, the MSE Energy Club prediction was that over the next year, if I do nothing, I’ll pay -1% than I am paying today. Now it’s suddenly become +2%. Where did that +7% jump in April come from? 

We are now in the assessment period to determine the Q2 (April to June) price cap, and it has started with wholesale prices higher than they have been in recent weeks. That will be the reason why an estimate for April has gone up a bit. With the period running until mid-February, there is plenty of time for it to change. Prices in the market could rise further, in which case the estimate for next year will get higher, or they could fall back. 

Ildhund

The usual prophets are sometimes in broad agreement about what will happen, but not just now (2024-11-22 11:00:00):

Prediction for 2025

Prophet	Q2	Change from Q1
Cornwall	£1,713	-1.40%
EDF	£1,777	2.24%
British Gas	£1,795	3.28%

I wonder if it matters that both EDF and BG are in the business of selling fixed-price deals, while Cornwall aren't.

[Sorry about the table. You get the idea ]

Scot_39

victor2 said:

MattMattMattUK said:

victor2 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Just read on BBC 

"However a period of high prices - which analysts say is likely to continue - means households have collectively built up debt of £3.7bn to suppliers.

The average household in arrears owes more than £1,500 for electricity and £1,300 for gas"

Average?!?    That seems ridiculously high.  Almost 2 years in arrears for dual fuel.

Is this because they aren't allowed to cut people off?  Does it ever get paid back?

You can twist "statistics" to support pretty much anything. Sadly, even the BBC seems to be going for clickbait type statements these days.

I cannot see how that is clickbait or twisting statistics. 

The average household on variable direct debit owes nothing. The average household on a fixed rate tariff will be in credit at this time of year...

The average household on mvdd definitely does not owe nothing, and in reality owes - i.e. pays for after use on average about one months energy.

Based on the payment leaving your account 14 days after monthly statement based on previous days final reading.  And based on that payment taking 3 days to clear - so excl weekends and bank holidays - on the suppliers accounts.

In simple terms in a 31 day month

energy used on day 1 isn't "paid" for for 31+14+3 days = 48 days in arrears
and energy on the last day 14+3=17 days in arrears.

Paying in arrears like that means your constantly in debt to suppliers.

Once tge statement is issued it will I suspect even show as a debit producing a negative balance - a debt due for payment - on your account.

Even if only count that 14 days between billing and the 3 days for clearance at their end (from an EOn forum in Aug 24) after your bank has taken your cash - your in debit until that payment received by them. And that payment might then take another 1-2 days to show on your account balance (again from an EOn forum on why a payment is not shown immediately on accounts).

Your just not considered to be in default on that debit balance as they expect it to be paid as demanded.

But in modern Britain, the sad reality is the unscrupulous could have cancelled that DD mandate and or account and done a "midnight flit" at any point  - net result owing a full months usage as of statement date plus maybe the 14 days plus 3 ? + .... 


And that delay in payment / risk  - 2 of the factors behind the  standard credit cap being £112 higher than DD - maybe why not all offer it, and possibly why - with mounting debts and higher financing costs on that debt - at least one who did has reportedly stopped.

There's certainly an argument that it shouldn't attract the same pricing as annualised plans now at least it appears anecdotaly these are shifting to be more positively biased per individual.

As one reason many here suggest mvdd is to prevent suppliers holding a credit balance.

And even after studying the issue, Ofgems new rules iirc will still allow "stable" suppliers to use 80% of Customer Credit Balances - as removing would be detrimental to market and consumers - less stability - we all paid for SoLR to protect those saving on prices at badly regulated start ups - and/or higher pricing or both potentially. 

By Ofgem's review if firms using credit balances is good for the market and so ultimately us as consumers (after having to SoLR for other failures no desire to repeat) , MVDD and on average in debit / arrears is bad.

Gerry1

Scot_39 said:

victor2 said:

MattMattMattUK said:

victor2 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Just read on BBC 

"However a period of high prices - which analysts say is likely to continue - means households have collectively built up debt of £3.7bn to suppliers.

The average household in arrears owes more than £1,500 for electricity and £1,300 for gas"

Average?!?    That seems ridiculously high.  Almost 2 years in arrears for dual fuel.

Is this because they aren't allowed to cut people off?  Does it ever get paid back?

You can twist "statistics" to support pretty much anything. Sadly, even the BBC seems to be going for clickbait type statements these days.

I cannot see how that is clickbait or twisting statistics. 

The average household on variable direct debit owes nothing. The average household on a fixed rate tariff will be in credit at this time of year...

Paying in arrears like that means your constantly in debt to suppliers.

Apparently not.

I'm not a finance expect but IIRC 'in debt' means you're a defaulter whereas 'in debit' means it's just the usual settlement period.  Much the same as with other accounts where you pay on 30 days, or with credit cards where you pay in full every month.

debitcardmayhem

When you owe somebody which you have not paid for you have a debt, and they are your creditor. If you don’t pay said debt on the due date then you are a defaulter.

ditta

So what are people doing? Stay on the price cap rates for now or switch to a fixed deal?

Ildhund

Gerry1 said:

I'm not a finance expect but IIRC 'in debt' means you're a defaulter whereas 'in debit' means it's just the usual settlement period.  Much the same as with other accounts where you pay on 30 days, or with credit cards where you pay in full every month.

Many of the statistics quoted here will originate from Ofgem's regular surveys of customer debt and credit. They give a pretty clear explanation of the difference between the terms debt and arrears as they use them. This is their latest (as of 30 June 2024):
 


And their methodology:
 

This is a snapshot figure of the total debt and arrears that was owed on the last day of the reporting period for customers repaying debt or arrears, that had existed for >91 days.

Customers in arrears are customers who owe a debt to their supplier, but do not yet have a debt repayment arrangement in place.

Customers in debt have entered a formal arrangement with their supplier to repay outstanding debts, including all prepayment (PPM) customers repaying a debt, and non-PPM customers on debt repayment arrangements extending beyond 91 days/13 weeks.

It does not include those customers with a debit at the end of a payment scheme that will be rolled into a new payment scheme and those who have had their payments increased because previous payments were set too low. All customers on payment schemes (including direct debit) are excluded once the initial debt has been repaid. It includes the outstanding amount of debt that the customer is paying as part of a repayment plan and does not include any debt incurred for consumption since the start of the repayment plan .   

Robin9

Does anyone have any info on the effect of Storm Bert on our power supplies this weekend ?     How much wind power was shut down?

GingerTim

Robin9 said:

Does anyone have any info on the effect of Storm Bert on our power supplies this weekend ?     How much wind power was shut down?

According to https://grid.iamkate.com/, 62% of today's power going into the Grid was generated by wind. Not bad.