Energy news in general

dealyboy

@JSHarris said:

dealyboy said:

@JSHarris said:

There has been a marked change in personal behaviour as a side effect of the introduction of the welfare state all those years ago, that I believe accounts for a part of the problem.  My parents grew up in a time when there was very little in the way of government assistance with anything, only private health care, far fewer social benefits and things were definitely bloody grim for anyone that was unable to work, for any reason.

Thankfully we're more enlightened now and have made massive changes aimed at addressing social and financial inequality.  In the main these have been overwhelmingly beneficial, but the downside is that this support has created a view by some that they are entitled to everything they want, whether they can afford it or not. Obviously there are a lot of genuine cases of hardship where the system doesn't provide the support it should, but equally there are some that play the system for all they can get.

I knew a chap many years ago that did this.  He had five children, was living in two terraced council houses that had been knocked into one to house his family and had never worked in his life.  He was proud of never having officially worked (although he did loads of cash jobs on the side).  He was no fool, I'd describe him as a likeable rogue.  He knew every trick in the book to avoid work and get as much out of the benefits system as he could.  He's not alone, talk with anyone working within the benefits sector and they will know of people doing this.  Not really a solution for this problem, either.  Either we, as a society, want to provide care and support for all, or we don't.  Just as we can never eradicate crime, we will never eradicate the small proportion of society that want to freeload.

As a final point, back when I was a student I lived in a bedsit with coin meters for gas and electricity.  There were many winter evenings when I sat in the dark with no heating, because I didn't have the money for the meter.  Often it was a decision between buying food or having heating, food usually won out.  I didn't die or get ill, but I do remember how grim some of those nights were.  I wouldn't wish that on anyone, TBH.

I think it's a far wider question than 'abuse' of the welfare system, that is but one part of a malaise in society that has perhaps always existed in one form or another and pervades every class and culture.

We can all think of 'groups' that 'take advantage' or whose interest is self interest to the detriment of wider society and to consequentially impoverish individuals.

It is, but is also, in my view, a problem compounded by those making legislation not being that good at understanding human behaviour, and how changes in policies will impact that.  The old adage "When your up to your !!!!!! in alligators it's hard to remember that your objective was to drain the swamp" applies in part, as an illustration as to how ill thought-through plans have unintended consequences, and a LOT of government policy mirrors this problem.

We all adjust our behaviour to take advantage of anything and everything.  I'm as good an example as anyone else, I've optimised our energy usage to take (a perhaps unfair) advantage of cheap off-peak prices.  I've done this in a similar way to my old friend and his playing the benefits system.  The result is that about 99.5% of our energy usage is at the cheap rate, plus I'm still getting paid about £1,000/year for the electricity we generate from our solar system (which has long since paid for itself.  Without a doubt I'm gaming the system to my advantage.

Firstly - no ... I don't see those as morally equivalent at all.
Secondly - wow ... heavens above  .

JSHarris

dealyboy said:

@JSHarris said:

dealyboy said:

@JSHarris said:

There has been a marked change in personal behaviour as a side effect of the introduction of the welfare state all those years ago, that I believe accounts for a part of the problem.  My parents grew up in a time when there was very little in the way of government assistance with anything, only private health care, far fewer social benefits and things were definitely bloody grim for anyone that was unable to work, for any reason.

Thankfully we're more enlightened now and have made massive changes aimed at addressing social and financial inequality.  In the main these have been overwhelmingly beneficial, but the downside is that this support has created a view by some that they are entitled to everything they want, whether they can afford it or not. Obviously there are a lot of genuine cases of hardship where the system doesn't provide the support it should, but equally there are some that play the system for all they can get.

I knew a chap many years ago that did this.  He had five children, was living in two terraced council houses that had been knocked into one to house his family and had never worked in his life.  He was proud of never having officially worked (although he did loads of cash jobs on the side).  He was no fool, I'd describe him as a likeable rogue.  He knew every trick in the book to avoid work and get as much out of the benefits system as he could.  He's not alone, talk with anyone working within the benefits sector and they will know of people doing this.  Not really a solution for this problem, either.  Either we, as a society, want to provide care and support for all, or we don't.  Just as we can never eradicate crime, we will never eradicate the small proportion of society that want to freeload.

As a final point, back when I was a student I lived in a bedsit with coin meters for gas and electricity.  There were many winter evenings when I sat in the dark with no heating, because I didn't have the money for the meter.  Often it was a decision between buying food or having heating, food usually won out.  I didn't die or get ill, but I do remember how grim some of those nights were.  I wouldn't wish that on anyone, TBH.

I think it's a far wider question than 'abuse' of the welfare system, that is but one part of a malaise in society that has perhaps always existed in one form or another and pervades every class and culture.

We can all think of 'groups' that 'take advantage' or whose interest is self interest to the detriment of wider society and to consequentially impoverish individuals.

It is, but is also, in my view, a problem compounded by those making legislation not being that good at understanding human behaviour, and how changes in policies will impact that.  The old adage "When your up to your !!!!!! in alligators it's hard to remember that your objective was to drain the swamp" applies in part, as an illustration as to how ill thought-through plans have unintended consequences, and a LOT of government policy mirrors this problem.

We all adjust our behaviour to take advantage of anything and everything.  I'm as good an example as anyone else, I've optimised our energy usage to take (a perhaps unfair) advantage of cheap off-peak prices.  I've done this in a similar way to my old friend and his playing the benefits system.  The result is that about 99.5% of our energy usage is at the cheap rate, plus I'm still getting paid about £1,000/year for the electricity we generate from our solar system (which has long since paid for itself.  Without a doubt I'm gaming the system to my advantage.

Firstly - no ... I don't see those as morally equivalent at all.
Secondly - wow ... heavens above  .

Perhaps not morally equivalent, but the principle is similar.  We are both taking advantage of what is available to us, by taking what some might see as extreme measures.  In my old friends case he worked hard to maximise his benefit money, in my case it's me working hard to maximise my share of an overly generous government incentive scheme plus the way off-peak prices are lowered as an incentive to get people to change their energy usage behaviour.

I would be the first to say that I'm an extreme example of the latter.  For reasons not associated with saving money we need backup power here, as we suffer grid power cuts every winter, without fail.  That's always meant having a generator ready, plus a changeover switch on the house supply.  Battery storage, with a backup function, came down enough in price to be affordable, especially given that my generator was on its last legs and needed replacing.  The bonus with the battery system is that we can charge it for free through the summer, using solar generation we'd otherwise export.  When there's no solar we charge it overnight at the cheap rate.  This means the house is effectively off-grid (although grid tied) during the whole peak rate period each day, and running from the battery system.  So far this year (since 1st January) we have used only 10kWh of peak rate electricity (we use a little bit whenever our demand exceeds the 3kW that the battery system can deliver).

the_lunatic_is_in_my_head

MattMattMattUK said:

Whilst in general I agree, I actually think that financial education should be compulsory in schools (I think Wales already introduced a limited program) there are a few issues with this.

Ours is too young so I'm not sure what they do here in Wales along those lines yet but yes better education all round at a young age would be most wise.

Not just with this, I assume the old cooking for girls and wood work for boys has gone out the window but cooking should be taught to all kids and anything improving their practice skills would be of benefit also. I think they should be taught how to repair some of the more popular tech we all have in our pockets, I know it evolves quickly but some basics might be give future generations more confidence in opening such things up and having a go at fixing stuff. 

Regarding the rest, I imagine there's people who have fallen on hard times, large rent/mortgage increases, sudden job loses and there is no doubt those out who simply can't afford, well, life, but you would hope they are in a minority and the majority probably fall within the parameters you mention. 

JSHarris said:

I knew a chap many years ago that did this.  He had five children, was living in two terraced council houses that had been knocked into one to house his family and had never worked in his life.  He was proud of never having officially worked (although he did loads of cash jobs on the side).  He was no fool, I'd describe him as a likeable rogue.  He knew every trick in the book to avoid work and get as much out of the benefits system as he could.  He's not alone, talk with anyone working within the benefits sector and they will know of people doing this.  Not really a solution for this problem, either.  Either we, as a society, want to provide care and support for all, or we don't.  Just as we can never eradicate crime, we will never eradicate the small proportion of society that want to freeload.

I think those out there who want to be on benefits either know how to work the system or accept a certain level of living in exchange for not working, and it's not just the work, the responsibility is factor, if my wife and I don't bring money into the household our child would suffer, a government cheque covering everything would take a huge mental load off. 

In turn I think who don't want to be on benefits but find themselves on hard times probably genuinely struggle and need that assistance, possible for a brief period, to survive.

Of course there are the vulnerable who can't survive on their own due to disability or similar and I'm sure we'd all agree that's who the welfare system should be geared towards. 

Our household income isn't massive, we work hard, spend smart and perhaps sacrifice indulgences that would be nice to have, although ultimately I think things like new cars and expensive possessions don't add any real value to life any way, we could possibly not be much worse off cutting hours and claiming benefits particularly considering the cost of living payments. We also paid £7000 to have have our central heating sorted, low income and it would have been completely free as would have a lot of insulation improvements to the house over the years which also cost a lot of money to install.

JSHarris

Whilst on the topic of benefits and the way the system is structured, I have a serious issue with the winter fuel payment.  Every year I get this (£500 this year) and frankly we don't need it.  That's not because we're well off (we are not -  we've both been retired for some years), it's because our total electricity bill  for the whole year (heating the house, hot water, charging the car etc) will be less than £800.  I cannot see any justification in taxpayers funding the running costs of my car, which is in reality what they would be doing if I kept the WFP (the winter heating part of our  bill is only around £200 in total).  To ease my conscience I give the money to charity every year, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the government targeted this properly, so those that have most need get a bit more and those with no need don't get it at all.

dealyboy

@JSHarris said:

Whilst on the topic of benefits and the way the system is structured, I have a serious issue with the winter fuel payment.  Every year I get this (£500 this year) and frankly we don't need it.  That's not because we're well off (we are not -  we've both been retired for some years), it's because our total electricity bill  for the whole year (heating the house, hot water, charging the car etc) will be less than £800.  I cannot see any justification in taxpayers funding the running costs of my car, which is in reality what they would be doing if I kept the WFP (the winter heating part of our  bill is only around £200 in total).  To ease my conscience I give the money to charity every year, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the government targeted this properly, so those that have most need get a bit more and those with no need don't get it at all.

Without meaning to be at all patronising ... you're doing the decent thing, in common with many.

As you know the 'benefits' and 'allowances' system is a mess, producing a lot of anomalies and unfairness at the margins, but the person who fixes it will be 'a better man than I am Gunga Din!'.

The_Green_Hornet

Octopus Energy raises $800m and aims to create 3,000 green jobs in UK

Extra cash values firm at nearly $8bn, as it says it has greater share of home electricity market than British Gas

Octopus Energy has raised $800m (£630m) from its shareholders in a move that values the company at nearly $8bn, weeks after it became Britain’s biggest power supplier.

Its existing investors, which include Japan’s Tokyo Gas and Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management, have ploughed in extra cash as the value of the utility company surged by 60% since its last fundraising round two years ago.

The company said the investment was expected to create “3,000 green jobs” in the UK in 2024.

Octopus Energy raises $800m and aims to create 3,000 green jobs in UK | Energy industry | The Guardian

GingerTim

UK typical energy bill expected to fall to £1,660 by April

The UK’s energy price cap is predicted to fall by 14% in April, lowering household bills further.

A typical duel fuel consumer is expected to pay £1,660 a year, down £268 from January bills of £1,928, according to forecasters Cornwall Insight.

Bills expected to drop further, £1,590 in July before a slight increase to £1,640 from October.

Cornwall Insight explains:

Since mid-November, wholesale energy prices have experienced a significant decline, triggering the anticipated drop in the price cap. Contrary to initial concerns, the Israel-Hamas conflict and problems such as potential LNG [liquefied natural gas] production strikes in Australia have as yet failed to materially impact energy supplies.

Additionally, the absence of further pipeline disruptions, similar to the Finnish Balticconnector rupture, further bolstered confidence in energy security. These factors, coupled with a relatively mild winter to date, have left European gas-in-store levels above expectations for the remainder of winter. This situation has helped to drive down wholesale prices, as seen in the current forecasts of the price cap.

While forecasts have improved for now, global events such as the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza have highlighted the susceptibility of UK energy prices to external factors. Prices may therefore rebound if future incidents, such as the disruption to shipping through the Red Sea, raise concerns over disruption to supplies.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/20/uk-inflation-data-to-reveal-whether-price-rises-continuing-slow-cost-living-crisis-business-live?page=with:block-6582cf188f0840199197f1d8#block-6582cf188f0840199197f1d8

molerat

That is gas below 6p and electric between 22.5p and 24p, gas down 1p and electric down 2.5p to 3p on previous forecasts.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

A good page to bookmark as it updates.

JSHarris

Looking at the wholesale electricity price data from week 44 (first week in November) onwards and comparing 2023 to 2022 the scale of the price drop is pretty massive for some weeks.  These are average weekly day-ahead auction wholesale electricity prices for weeks 44 to 52, for 2022 and 2023:

	2023	2022
Week 44	8.628p/kWh	10.565p/kWh
Week 45	9.340p/kWh	9.379p/kWh
Week 46	8.906p/kWh	12.280p/kWh
Week 47	9.619p/kWh	14.197p/kWh
Week 48	12.006p/kWh	31.270p/kWh
Week 49	9.109p/kWh	32.839p/kWh
Week 50	7.467p/kWh	35.852p/kWh
Week 51		16.066p/kWh
Week 52		9.517p/kWh

ArbitraryRandom

As someone who doesn't know much about the UK electrical infrastructure, this video (and the link in the description) was interesting - posting on the basis that others might also be interested:

https://youtu.be/F0JDK_71yDg?si=wOR0hbVZjRBnPOa-