Energy news in general

GingerTim

Perhaps we might even see office blocks turning their lights off overnight/at weekends. Buildings at Canary Wharf not being lit up like a Christmas tree every night would be a start. 

MattMattMattUK

lisyloo said:

Mstty said:

lisyloo said:

Mstty said:

lisyloo said:

Mstty said:

I don't subscribe to any more help this winter. I think energy customers need a big shock, reduce their energy usage and then some target help next year for winter if gas futures are still this high or higher.

I guess someone on dialysis can go to the hospital and disrupt their life.
Not sure how it works for those on oxygen machines
or my elderly dad who's just got over cancer from not having the heating on.

having said that he does get quite a lot of help being a disabled pensioner, but there will be people for whose circumstances that could be interpreted as pretty heartless.
You can't reduce your energy needs for essential health devices or in some case heating for the elderly or unhealthy.

If it gets really cold of there is a power cut I'll be bring my Dad to my house, but I guess not everyone will have that option.

Oh please, we can all come up with a fringe issue and this is down to poorly targeted help which has been rightly in the press and media and does need attention.

I am sorry for anyone in your family that may be in these fringe situations but in most cases my point stands in my opinion. 

ok, take you point.
I don't think being elderly or disabled are "fringe" issues.

It got me googling

For dialysis 

https://www.kidneycareuk.org/about-kidney-health/living-kidney-disease/keeping-well-home/

Elderly is different but they are getting a lot of financial support this winter.

Disabled, I believe the system is broken and that a lot of people are missing out on badly needed financial help. But to blame everything on energy costs for a broken system is wrong.

I do believe the money being dished out this winter was fair and a lot of money in most cases.

It may have been fair at the time (apart from some fringe groups like park homes etc.)

I'm happy to agree to disagree.
I'm more aligned with Martin's views on this expressed here

Martin Lewis urges more help over 'desperate' energy bills - BBC News

I think Martin is a great consumer champion, but even he admits is would not want to be in the position of trying to balance the national books. It is very easy to demand the government spend more money when you do not have to worry about funding that spending.

There is an international energy crisis, we are likely entering a sustained period of global economic downturn, perhaps a global recession that lasts a couple of years. It might not be fun, it might not be we want, but there is nothing we or the government can do to stop it. There will be a short term drop in living standards, just as there has been with every other major recession and global downturn, followed by a bounce back after. This generation, just like every generation before them, will have to get used to that. The UK will feel it worse than many other advanced economies due to our particular self inflicted economic pains and the fact that we do not have the level of welfare spending of most other advanced nations, but that is the choice the electorate have made again and again, regardless of if they vote Labour or Conservative. 

tghe-retford

brewerdave said:

GingerTim said:

Coming here soon, too. The university where I work usually provides 24-hour access to buildings for staff, but is shutting most of them down in the evening during the week, and entirely at the weekend, to save money on energy costs.

Suspect that most local Councils will take a similar approach for their public buildings eg libraries - so those who suggested going to keep warm in the Winter in local public buildings ,are going to be sadly disappointed.

Public buildings either reducing opening hours or closing. Bus services being cut to curb high fuel costs and prevent a mass exodus of passengers. Business cutting their opening hours to save money. Pubs closing because of cost, may even start implementing minimum purchase requirements to stay in their property to dissuade freeloaders.

I think people are going to be in for a nasty shock come October if they intend to ride out the wave outside of their home.

GingerTim

Latest estimate from Cornwall Insights is a 'typical' energy bill reaching £3,358 in October, £3,615 in January, and 'Given the current level of the wholesale price, this level of household energy bills currently shows little sign of abating into 2024'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62380728

Sea_Shell

GingerTim said:

Latest estimate from Cornwall Insights is a 'typical' energy bill reaching £3,358 in October, £3,615 in January, and 'Given the current level of the wholesale price, this level of household energy bills currently shows little sign of abating into 2024'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62380728

When is a cap not a cap?......When the sky's the limit!!!!   




(I know, I know.....but that's how many people will view this "news")

tghe-retford

GingerTim said:

Latest estimate from Cornwall Insights is a 'typical' energy bill reaching £3,358 in October, £3,615 in January, and 'Given the current level of the wholesale price, this level of household energy bills currently shows little sign of abating into 2024'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62380728

It appears this is not a blip, but a correction and a permanent one. Fixing won't help you in the long term. Fracking is not the holy grail as some commentators think it is. Nor will nuclear, renewables or even coal, gas and oil help now. Putin is planning ahead into 2028 at least, he has no plans to end war any time soon. And we're also seeing heightened rhetoric from other world leaders too who are using energy as a weakness to exploit 

We need to have a frank discussion as a society about energy now as a luxury rather than an essential going forward because we can't afford to keep paying subsidies to households every winter. The way we live is going to have to change, maybe more communal sharing and living arrangements to pool resources and keep groups warm rather than the distant living we have today. A more European style of living where generations share a family home will have to become the norm.

Sea_Shell

tghe-retford said:

GingerTim said:

Latest estimate from Cornwall Insights is a 'typical' energy bill reaching £3,358 in October, £3,615 in January, and 'Given the current level of the wholesale price, this level of household energy bills currently shows little sign of abating into 2024'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62380728

It appears this is not a blip, but a correction and a permanent one. Fixing won't help you in the long term. 

You're right, it does just feel like, by fixing, the can has just been kicked down the road for a little while, but at least it gives a chance for people to have a little breathing space over what's coming, and for those who can afford it to plan for when their fixes end.

However, will those that are currently "borderline" as to being able to afford the new "normal" realise that they should seriously think about cutting back on energy and other costs, NOW, before it all catches up with them?   

I hope so, but I fear not. 



We're fixed until mid-April 2023.  We can afford the increases....but I'd rather not have to!

Mstty

I fail to see how a price cap fixing deal won't help in the long term. Surely pounds saved now will always help long term?

However it does appear to be all doom and gloom out there.

It is also getting more difficult to advise of a way out of the gloom for people coming to the forum for help and assistance.

@tghe-retford do you have a source for Putin's future plans for 2028 and beyond or is this just your personal opinion?

I do agree big changes are required as to how we all live. First step energy reduction guidance as can be seen by posts on this forum. Grants to make homes more energy efficient and new building regs for new houses so they are as off grid as possible.

Much more than just the above its such a broad and emotive issue. 

MattMattMattUK

Mstty said:

I fail to see how a price cap fixing deal won't help in the long term. Surely pounds saved now will always help long term?

I think because one can only delay the inevitable, rather than avoid it entirely, at least unless one is in the position of being able to install a significant amount of solar(20kW+) (and possibly wind) for self-generation, as well as 15kWh+ of battery storage to all but avoid grid energy, but that is of course going to have a significant cost.

Mstty said:

However it does appear to be all doom and gloom out there.

I agree, we are looking at 3-4% mortgage rates within two years which is going to have a huge negative impact on the economy. I know people say that there were 15%+ interest rates in the nineties, but that conveniently ignores the fact that those rates were on much lower borrowing levels. 15% were on people who had borrowed 2x their household income, but now we are looking at 4% on 4.5 times income but with also significantly higher overall costs of living. The mortgage interest rate rises will be sucking £140-200 billion a year out of the real economy by the end of next year, energy price rises (domestic and vehicle) are estimated to suck another £90-120 billion a year out of the economy and food £40-50 billion. We are going to be looking at a substantial fall in the standard of living that will probably last five years and in terms of economic damage it will likely be comparable to the 1919-1921 depression and the the Great Depression. I am a pragmatist, I accept this, but it does not mean it is going to be pleasant. 

Mstty said:

It is also getting more difficult to advise of a way out of the gloom for people coming to the forum for help and assistance.

I agree, on top of that people's ability to help others is going to be significantly impacted as the effects hit us all. Going back to 2019 I could have paid the mortgages and bills of my siblings, so if needed I would have been able to bail them out. Now, whilst I can pay my own comfortably, I am certainly not in a position to be able to help anyone else out long term and that constraint will only get worse over the next two years. 

Mstty said:

@tghe-retford do you have a source for Putin's future plans for 2028 and beyond or is this just your personal opinion?

I am not sure Putin really had a plan, it appears he thought he would have a decisive victory in a few weeks at most, now he has lost operational capability in a significant proportion of his conventional forces and is using energy as his major weapon, a weapon that he knows has a very limited window of effectiveness. 

Mstty said:

I do agree big changes are required as to how we all live. First step energy reduction guidance as can be seen by posts on this forum. Grants to make homes more energy efficient and new building regs for new houses so they are as off grid as possible.

I agree with that, depending on the level of the grants, I would say for private owners they should largely be self funded and for landlords they should be legally compelled to bring homes up to a required standard. I think we also all have to accept that there will be a drop in living standards over the next few years, whilst it might not be particularly pleasant it is a certainty for anyone who is not a very high earner or on a steep upward career trajectory. 

Mstty said:

Much more than just the above its such a broad and emotive issue. 

Too emotive for a lot of people, we largely need to keep emptions out of it and work on the facts. Emotions will not help people, facts and solid advice will. 

littleteapot

My assumption was that prices are unlikely to decrease significantly even after 2024. I believe that high energy and fuel prices will be the 'new normal'.

The logic when fixing for 2 years from April 2022 was that it would give us some breathing space to save and make improvements to our house and learn how to adjust our lifestyle before the proverbial brown stuff really hits the fan.

My reasoning that energy prices are unlikely to go down is that no country is going to return to using cheap gas from Russia after this conflict. Returning to using solid fuel is politically and environmentally unsound and besides most mining facilities have been closed in recent years. Nuclear power plants take over 10 years and are extremely expensive to build so that won't help in the foreseeable future either. Renewable energy is simply not reliable enough outside of equatorial/tropical regions and bulk storage is extremely expensive to build. We don't have the terrain for significant hydro power either and it would upset too many rich NIMBYs.

As per the WEF agenda, only the super-rich elite will be able to continue with the lifestyles that the majority of us have become accustomed to over the last 30 years. It is going to be unpleasant for the vast majority of us going forward.

Going back to the Putin issue and my personal assessment which is _not_ based on hard facts, only observation;

Putin is a very calculating and patient man, as are his cronies who began their careers at the height of the USSR. I had suspected for many years that Putin's long term aim was to break the European Union in order to 'rebuild the USSR' or whatever he has decided to call his new empire. Supplying large amounts of cheap energy which western europe becomes dependant on over decades in favour of locally-generated energy was the perfect way to do this, whilst simultaneously allowing Russia to rebuild its wealth.

To then use this dependency as leverage to devalue and break western european (including the UK) economies is the next logical step in his plan, to weaken NATO and the EU. Whether he will see his plan come to fruition before he dies or before Russia's funds and resources become depleted is yet to be seen, but so far it seems to be progressing well.