cryptocurrency and bitcoin

Cus

Imo (and I am of an age just between young and old)

Firstly, I think people using the word crypto and bundling it all together is as incorrect as bundling buying Dow futures derivatives versus investing in us treasuries. People don't appreciate the nuances.

I do think that many older people don't understand Blockchain and crypto, and I think they are very defensive against something they don't understand. There is also an element of disappointment that they have not invested and have missed out on a lot of profit 

I also think that there are many younger people that see it as some way to make a fortune, rebel against the system, use the subject as a way to denigrate older people that are part of an investment/market system/establishment  etc etc.  Also greed is age agnostic.

I worry that a lot of young people may get burnt in the next year or two, and I worry that when younger people finally only see it as store of value and not expect rapid price rises then it may crash to a realistic level. If bitcoin went to $10mn each, would people sell? I think that selling into fiat contradicts the whole idea.

But blockchain, crypto payments in the metaverse etc etc are concepts that are going to dominate the near future.

Scottex99

tebbins said:

The problem with cultists and conspiracy theorists is that their ego is tied into their commitment to the cause. Especially for men this makes admitting you're believing in something silly very difficult, and it's easier to believe in the minority of analogous success stories, the same way gamblers keep believing they can win - everyone needs a hobby but some people need healthier addictions.

I think the technology behind bitcoin, and maybe the thing itself probably has some utility over the coming decades. I don't expect it to change my life in the same way I have seen mobile phones change over my life. There is no way to calculate the value of bitcoin without wild speculation, e.g. we're at 18.5m coins and about $1tn of mkt cap out of global wealth of $418tn (Credit Suisse World Wealth Report 2021), if everyone in the world in 2050 owns $1,000 of BTC the market cap will be $8-$10tn and at most 21 million coins, so I don't see BTC having much more than another 10x return left in it over the next 3 decades - this is average for stocks.

I do know that over the long term, i.e. the rest of my life I have a vested interest in the UK continuing to be a strong economy (as in strong regulations, employee and consumer rights, strong institutions, rule of law, business friendly, environmentally and politically stable) and as a result a nice place to live. I know that UK equity indices (I'm talking about the FTSE 100, 250 and All Share mainly) are correlated with and grow at similar rates to UK GDP over the long term (covered in previous posts, too lazy to find links, it's easy to work out on your own just use ONS and Barclays Equity gilts Study data), they are resilient dividend payers and dividends usually at least keep up with inflation. I know how to make an educated guess about future returns. I do not know how to make educated guesses about the future returns of an asset with no intrinsic value, no reliable method of determining value, that relies entirely on the internet, other people being willing to buy it for me in future, and huge amounts of power, for an activity of no net economic utility to anyone.

Why do I/we have to be cultists because we’re interested in something that you’re not?

I know it’s volatile and risky, I’ve seen $100k drop off my portfolio in a day and been like…Meh.

Pretty sure most people would take a 10x over a decade or two, I’d like to think it’s more like 4 years than 40 but whatever. I’m not brainwashed, I don’t even really care about the $ value although that’s what we’re all here for. I think it’s the future of money. I have my opinion,  you have yours, we can disagree.

im telling you to HFSP because I find it funny not because I’m actually shilling BTC to randos on the internet in the hope of pumping my bags. 

I don’t have the links to back it up either but there’s a lot more green energy going into BTC mining and ETH is moving to POS, it’s not the world killer that people think it is and still way behind the world banks for energy use anyway.

One final point, it’s not going to be me relying on anyone buying my bags, it’ll be that they are desperate to take them off my hands, probably at a figure we’ll in excess of what I paid for them

tebbins

Scottex99 said:

tebbins said:

The problem with cultists and conspiracy theorists is that their ego is tied into their commitment to the cause. Especially for men this makes admitting you're believing in something silly very difficult, and it's easier to believe in the minority of analogous success stories, the same way gamblers keep believing they can win - everyone needs a hobby but some people need healthier addictions.

I think the technology behind bitcoin, and maybe the thing itself probably has some utility over the coming decades. I don't expect it to change my life in the same way I have seen mobile phones change over my life. There is no way to calculate the value of bitcoin without wild speculation, e.g. we're at 18.5m coins and about $1tn of mkt cap out of global wealth of $418tn (Credit Suisse World Wealth Report 2021), if everyone in the world in 2050 owns $1,000 of BTC the market cap will be $8-$10tn and at most 21 million coins, so I don't see BTC having much more than another 10x return left in it over the next 3 decades - this is average for stocks.

I do know that over the long term, i.e. the rest of my life I have a vested interest in the UK continuing to be a strong economy (as in strong regulations, employee and consumer rights, strong institutions, rule of law, business friendly, environmentally and politically stable) and as a result a nice place to live. I know that UK equity indices (I'm talking about the FTSE 100, 250 and All Share mainly) are correlated with and grow at similar rates to UK GDP over the long term (covered in previous posts, too lazy to find links, it's easy to work out on your own just use ONS and Barclays Equity gilts Study data), they are resilient dividend payers and dividends usually at least keep up with inflation. I know how to make an educated guess about future returns. I do not know how to make educated guesses about the future returns of an asset with no intrinsic value, no reliable method of determining value, that relies entirely on the internet, other people being willing to buy it for me in future, and huge amounts of power, for an activity of no net economic utility to anyone.

Why do I/we have to be cultists because we’re interested in something that you’re not?

I know it’s volatile and risky, I’ve seen $100k drop off my portfolio in a day and been like…Meh.

Pretty sure most people would take a 10x over a decade or two, I’d like to think it’s more like 4 years than 40 but whatever. I’m not brainwashed, I don’t even really care about the $ value although that’s what we’re all here for. I think it’s the future of money. I have my opinion,  you have yours, we can disagree.

im telling you to HFSP because I find it funny not because I’m actually shilling BTC to randos on the internet in the hope of pumping my bags. 

I don’t have the links to back it up either but there’s a lot more green energy going into BTC mining and ETH is moving to POS, it’s not the world killer that people think it is and still way behind the world banks for energy use anyway.

One final point, it’s not going to be me relying on anyone buying my bags, it’ll be that they are desperate to take them off my hands, probably at a figure we’ll in excess of what I paid for them

1. You use the vocabulary, that is what cults do.
2. You believe people will be "desperate" to buy the thing you believe in.
3. You will and are literally, categorically,. indisputably, definitely, absolutely, solely and exclusively and only be relying on others being willing to buy your coins for more than you paid for them.
4. You think an asset with a mkt cap of $1tn, in the middle of its current bubble and a global savings glut is going to attract a further $9tn before 2025 is out.
5. Nothing I have said is opinion. This is not a debate of opinions, this is me correcting your wrong facts.
6. You, and many others in this forum exhibit behaviours of addicts, cult members and conspiracy theorists when talking about crypto.

Scottex99

At least put some effort in, reminds me why I can’t be bothered “debating” the future of money on here.

1. like what?
2. They’ll buy it off me at 10-20x what I paid for it, imo
3. already covered, I’ll sell my bags when I want to
4. that’s the rest of the gold MC so yeah, maybe. Doesn’t have to be BTC though, plenty of other crypto assets out there that will do well. If TradFi dislocates from Crypto and people see it as a genuine inflation hedge, it could go anywhere
5. nah
6. also nah, I’m pretty open about why I like it and why people may not, or shouldn’t get involved if they haven’t done the adequate research or have the required risk tolerance. From my side I’d think its absolutely crazy not to have 1-2% of NW in good crypto assets at this stage but, each to their own.
7. See you at 100k

[Deleted User]

Scottex99 said:

At least put some effort in, reminds me why I can’t be bothered “debating” the future of money on here.

1. like what?
2. They’ll buy it off me at 10-20x what I paid for it, imo
3. already covered, I’ll sell my bags when I want to
4. that’s the rest of the gold MC so yeah, maybe. Doesn’t have to be BTC though, plenty of other crypto assets out there that will do well. If TradFi dislocates from Crypto and people see it as a genuine inflation hedge, it could go anywhere
5. nah
6. also nah, I’m pretty open about why I like it and why people may not, or shouldn’t get involved if they haven’t done the adequate research or have the required risk tolerance. From my side I’d think its absolutely crazy not to have 1-2% of NW in good crypto assets at this stage but, each to their own.
7. See you at 100k

I don't see a problem with people investing 1-2% in crypto and I'm not sure why anyone would. I do the same for fun more than anything else. At the same time, it's obvious that a lot of what gets written about crypto online is irrational gibberish that's been picked up from self-serving YouTube videos, Reddit or wherever else. It's cringeworthy at best and dangerous at worst - in the same way I'd find endless naive comments about how to beat casinos at roulette cringeworthy/dangerous even if I occasionally play it myself for fun.

As for the long-term future, there are some obvious question marks about bitcoin in particular for me. The first is that it can never function as a standard currency and a golden ticket investment opportunity at the same time. The reason people invest in it is that it's volatile and they anticipate gains. But a volatile currency is largely useless for facilitating trade - people will refrain from spending it if they anticipate a price rise and refuse to accept it if they anticipate a price fall. It's either one or the other and right now it's an investment opportunity not a currency.

The second is the threat of it being regulated out of existence. There are numerous reasons why political and financial institutions might choose to do this (the environment, control, etc.) The idea none of that matters because we're all going to live some beautiful anarchic existence outside the system is juvenile nonsense for me. Politics will shape the future of bitcoin just as it shaped the internet (which was also supposed to be free from political control) and because bitcoin is an investment opportunity instead of a real currency it can easily tank once the casual investors who are just interested in making gains sense danger. The fact it hasn't happened yet is irrelevant.

Which is why, just like roulette, it's nothing more than fun for me and not a viable path to getting rich (even if some people have got rich off it).

adamp87

eskbanker said:

adamp87 said:

I have crypto currencies but it isn’t without its challenging. Some comments above are correct, it is essentially used currently to store wealth on the promise the returns will be greater than the other options (I.e stocks)

Who is promising this?

Nobody. It’s a risk. The same way you invest in a stock predicting it is going to go higher or keep value long term.

promise us maybe the wrong word perhaps premise is better.

You only have to look at the growth of value Bitcoin has had over the past few years to see why people do so

IvanOpinion

I find these bitcoin threads quite comical. 
If anybody ever wants to see examples of confirmation bias they only need to read a bitcoin thread.

RolandFlagg

People looking at this thread in 10 to 20 years will find the ignorance here hilarious, just like watching a Youtube clip of a tv show in the late 90s with people explaining what email is.

Bitcoin and the blockchain has already proven itself. The battle is over. Yet some will still close their eyes and stick their fingers in their ears.

But it's all part of the process.
See you all at $100k.

Zola.

It goes both ways for sure.

Those young whipper snappers throwing their money away on digital froth. 

Those old boomers who simply just dont get it.

There's no need to be so tribal one way or the other. I invest in index funds, active funds, property and bitcoin. 

I think not having any position in bitcoin is much more risky than having a moderate position which could one day turn into a huge sum. 

If it doesn't, no worries, if it does, happy days. 

Now that its on wall street it certainly isn't going anywhere. 

Scottex99

I don't see a problem with people investing 1-2% in crypto and I'm not sure why anyone would. I do the same for fun more than anything else. At the same time, it's obvious that a lot of what gets written about crypto online is irrational gibberish that's been picked up from self-serving YouTube videos, Reddit or wherever else. It's cringeworthy at best and dangerous at worst - in the same way I'd find endless naive comments about how to beat casinos at roulette cringeworthy/dangerous even if I occasionally play it myself for fun.

As for the long-term future, there are some obvious question marks about bitcoin in particular for me. The first is that it can never function as a standard currency and a golden ticket investment opportunity at the same time. The reason people invest in it is that it's volatile and they anticipate gains. But a volatile currency is largely useless for facilitating trade - people will refrain from spending it if they anticipate a price rise and refuse to accept it if they anticipate a price fall. It's either one or the other and right now it's an investment opportunity not a currency.

The second is the threat of it being regulated out of existence. There are numerous reasons why political and financial institutions might choose to do this (the environment, control, etc.) The idea none of that matters because we're all going to live some beautiful anarchic existence outside the system is juvenile nonsense for me. Politics will shape the future of bitcoin just as it shaped the internet (which was also supposed to be free from political control) and because bitcoin is an investment opportunity instead of a real currency it can easily tank once the casual investors who are just interested in making gains sense danger. The fact it hasn't happened yet is irrelevant.

Which is why, just like roulette, it's nothing more than fun for me and not a viable path to getting rich (even if some people have got rich off it).

Sometimes I get annoyed repeating myself 10 times but then I remember that there has been multiple threads on crypto and not everyone is going to read the 110 pages of the Bitcoin one.

Decent points here and I'll happily give the concession that anyone with 100k-10m (which is what I assume covers most of the regular posters in this part of the forum) in ISAs, Funds, Bonds etc are not exactly going to be queuing up to throw cold hard bundles of cash at something new and risky. But the pro crypto people aren't telling you to do that either. I tell my childhood mate to do the same with £250 as I do a clueless rich client of mine with £500k. Buy BTC and ETH, be well aware they could easily do -30% in a day and then do some research into the whole industry and the tech. Or don't, and check they coins value in 5 years.

I don't see that may people just blindly shilling here that haven't already previously explained why they are bullish. If you come on and say "Guys! You all need to buy Sh1tCoinX and you'll do 1000x by next week", the pro crypto people would get in before anyone else, telling them to p1ss off.

You're right about the currency aspect but remember BTC is just 1 of 10,000 digital assets, even the name cryptocurrency is not really accurate (as Darren said somewhere). You can actually buy whatever you want with the lightning network, coffee, food etc but BTC has become much more like digital gold than for payments in recent years. Plus i'd never spend my BTC on random !!!!!! when I'm so certain its going to be worth way more than it is now. You can use LTC/XRP/XLM for payments or any of the stablecoins. I trade BTC and ETH for my firm every week but I trade USDT/USDC in the millions every day. You dont need to stress about BTC moving 20% daily when you can sell/move stablecoins and they worth a dollar constantly (Tether queries aside). There's a few EUR/GBP stablecoins coming at some point too. 

Regulation is already here, Gibraltar where I live and work has had a DLT Framework since 01/01/2018. Estonia has regs, German does, the UK is catching up. Where crypto interacts with fiat (normal money) there will also be regs and tax and governments making sure they get their cut. Fair enough, it adds legitimacy to space and should "protect users" although I'm not entirely for it either. On the flip side there is a whole world of decentralised products and transactions happening daily that are more or less unstoppable. Even at the most simplest, nobody can stop me sending BTC out of my wallet to whoever I want right this second. They can't affect the network in any way. They can try to clamp down on the user, the exchanges, the banks etc but they can't actually stop someone moving it from one wallet to another.

In summary, I dont blame people for not knowing much about BTC, but Bitcoin is just the very beginning. Crypto/Blockchain isn't going anywhere