Fuel shortage - statistical assumptions

MattMattMattUK

JohnB47 said:

I was just wondering, as a purely statical exercise, if it was possible to estimate the likely outcome of every car owner filling their car up In the next few weeks and the likely effect on fuel supply. I mean, you can't actually stockpile petrol can you? What I'm saying is that, after a certain period, we would all be full up and any rush would abate. My car is three quarters full and I'm not rushing to add another quarter. Ok this is not strictly techie, but a bit mathematical, hence my posting here. Perhaps something for the More Or Less radio 4  program to discuss?    Thoughts?

You could if you could find all the data, but I cannot.
The UK currently uses a combined total of around 41 billion litres of petrol and diesel per year, so roughly 790 million litres per week. 
Best estimates from what I can find (pre-Brexit) appear to put maximum delivery capacity at 1.05-1.35 billion litres per week, with the driver shortage that will be somewhat reduced and the peak figure requires using extra capacity in terms of driver hours, above their normal driving hours. Realistic current surge capacity might be around the 1.1 billion litres , which is still 1.5 times normal requirements. 
The current increase in fuel purchase seems to be around 85%, so the week starting last Wednesday when panic buying started will be around 1.45 billion litres. 

The questions that are unknown are:
The usage patter of the panic buyers, eg. would they have used a fuel over one week, two weeks, a month.
Will the panic buyers keep topping off their tanks every journey/day.
How much of the panic buying was stockpiled in fuel cans (likely very small, but even 2% would have an impact) and how long will people wait before putting this into their vehicles.
How much has the panic buying increased consumption, there are hundreds of cars sitting in queues for petrol stations with their engines idling (yes, people are that stupid), driving to multiple petrol stations in search of fuel, or smaller queues.
How much additional capacity can be provided by the army driving vehicles. 

So without both additional information and more granular data the best answer would be a very wide range. It could all be over by Wednesday this week, it could take several more weeks for supply to be back to normal. My best guess is that it will likely be over by the weekend in most of the country, with issues in some parts going on another week. 

JohnB47

Thanks everyone and particularly those who had a go.

Laz123

Just to illustrate how stupid and selfish some people can be:

greyteam1959

Laz123 said:

BTW petrol has a shelf life of 3 to 6 months.

Now going into political mode: there is a fuel crisis, obviously caused by moronic panic buying. Many petrol stations have completely run out. This situation has been fuelled (sorry) buy Brexit and lack of HGV drivers. This idiotic government has made noises that the army may have to intervene. Well, make it happen then.

Rubbish...........
My petrol engine car has stood in a car park in Spain for 11 months with a full tank of petrol.
Just driven 400 miles in it.

[Deleted User]

greyteam1959 said:

Laz123 said:

BTW petrol has a shelf life of 3 to 6 months.

Now going into political mode: there is a fuel crisis, obviously caused by moronic panic buying. Many petrol stations have completely run out. This situation has been fuelled (sorry) buy Brexit and lack of HGV drivers. This idiotic government has made noises that the army may have to intervene. Well, make it happen then.

Rubbish...........
My petrol engine car has stood in a car park in Spain for 11 months with a full tank of petrol.
Just driven 400 miles in it.

It is a bit like best before dates, doesn’t suddenly go rotten but the quality deteriorates. 

I’ve used 5 year old petrol in my lawnmower and it worked ok but if somebody did a laboratory analysis of the petrol they would find it had degraded and probably taken on water etc. 

J_B

greyteam1959 said:

Laz123 said:

BTW petrol has a shelf life of 3 to 6 months.

Rubbish...........
My petrol engine car has stood in a car park in Spain for 11 months with a full tank of petrol.
Just driven 400 miles in it.

Ditto Cyprus 22 months! Although I only drove it to the MOT station and then the petrol station without issues

Username03725

RumRat said:

The shortage is only due to the brainless idiots who filled up their tanks instead of the usual £20 they pump in once a week. The same brainless idiots who bought bog roll by the gross, knuckle draggers of the first order.
Tanker drivers are not just everyday truckers and there are no less than there was on the run up to this. If the idiots hadn't panicked there would have been enough to last until deliveries commence again during the week.
OP I believe your analysis is correct and now that the brainless have filled up the demand will ease. 

OK rant over....Apologies....

I hope you feel better for that outburst. However...

I managed to get some today, having left it for a few days as I wasn't going anywhere and still had ~60 miles range left, and I'd assumed that by now the queues would be starting to tail off. They aren't and as I've got better things to do than queue for fuel for an hour or so every few days I'll take the pragmatic option and put more in to see me through the next week or two.

Yes I can see the contradiction, but it's the real world we live in and I know full well that if I were to just put enough in for the next couple of days, two things are an absolute certainty: me putting £20 in instead of £50 won't make the slightest difference to the current crisis, and that relying on everybody else to do their bit is such a preposterous idea that it's not even worth suggesting it as a solution. We don't live in a mythical war-time Britain where everybody pulled together. We never did; that's a myth conjured up from darker times. We live in age where stepping aside in the hope of helping things is a waste of time. A self-fulfilling prophecy maybe, but that's where this country is in 2021.

I'd love it to be like the village where I grew up where you left your keys in the ignition if you left your car outside the pub on a Friday night so that anyone blocked in could move it before you got back on Saturday morning, but that's gone. Britain is full of selfish buggers, sadly I've realised that, and other than feeling good about it there's no upside to sticking £20 of fuel in instead of £50. 

grandadgolfer

Laz123 said:

Just to illustrate how stupid and selfish some people can be:

How do you know that......he might run a fleet of vans for a business

Username03725

grandadgolfer said:

How do you know that......he might run a fleet of vans for a business

Saw a similar one on yesterday doing the rounds; the 'culprit' calmly pointed out that she runs a gardening service that involves running lawn mowers, strimmers etc and routinely fills a container of petrol to keep her business and therefore her livelihood going.

As ever, jumping to the wrong conclusion may lead to the wrong conclusion.

grandadgolfer

If you want to see stupid/selfish

https://metro.co.uk/2021/09/27/panic-buyer-filmed-filling-up-water-bottles-with-petrol-at-m25-garage-15324320/

This takes first prize for stupidity......just a shame her face wasn't shown to embarrass her