Fuel shortage - statistical assumptions

JohnB47

I was just wondering, as a purely statical exercise, if it was possible to estimate the likely outcome of every car owner filling their car up In the next few weeks and the likely effect on fuel supply. I mean, you can't actually stockpile petrol can you? What I'm saying is that, after a certain period, we would all be full up and any rush would abate. My car is three quarters full and I'm not rushing to add another quarter. Ok this is not strictly techie, but a bit mathematical, hence my posting here. Perhaps something for the More Or Less radio 4  program to discuss?    Thoughts?

tacpot12

Yes, you could model the time that it takes for a certain volume of fuel to make its way from the production/storage locations to the consumer's (vehicle) tanks. The one thing you can be fairly sure of is that this time will be longer if there is a shortage of delivery drivers to deliver fuel to the filling stations. 

m-holland

JohnB47 said:

I mean, you can't actually stockpile petrol can you?

Never underestimate the stupidity of human beings:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1220240.stm

RumRat

The shortage is only due to the brainless idiots who filled up their tanks instead of the usual £20 they pump in once a week. The same brainless idiots who bought bog roll by the gross, knuckle draggers of the first order.
Tanker drivers are not just everyday truckers and there are no less than there was on the run up to this. If the idiots hadn't panicked there would have been enough to last until deliveries commence again during the week.
OP I believe your analysis is correct and now that the brainless have filled up the demand will ease. 

OK rant over....Apologies....

Neil_Jones

JohnB47 said:

I was just wondering, as a purely statical exercise, if it was possible to estimate the likely outcome of every car owner filling their car up In the next few weeks and the likely effect on fuel supply. I mean, you can't actually stockpile petrol can you? What I'm saying is that, after a certain period, we would all be full up and any rush would abate. My car is three quarters full and I'm not rushing to add another quarter. Ok this is not strictly techie, but a bit mathematical, hence my posting here. Perhaps something for the More Or Less radio 4  program to discuss?    Thoughts?

Well yes you can stockpile petrol (within legal limits), but if stored improperly it will a) go off and b) evaporate.  Evaporation isn't unique to jerry cans, as it happens when the petrol is in the car too, as its not a completely enclosed system.  But of course the other key point is:  It's volatile.  And flammable.  And it stinks.

But anyway, there always comes a point where the initial rush subsides and then you're as you were.  We see this every time there is a rush on something - be it toilet roll, petrol or pasta (I dare say if some media outlet reported a shortage of cows milk would fly off shelves).  The "panic" lasts a few days (usually a week to 10 days), and then it just vanishes into thin air.

Uxb1

All of which is fine - unless YOU are the one who did not panic and assumes it will as you say be back to normal shortly - except that it isn't and then you are the one without the transport.
This was the position I was in during the 2000 petrol strikes - out of fuel and only able to ring my employer and say I'll be in when normal service resumes..whenever that is.
All which leads to the explanation of why people are panicking.
It's a perfectly logical reaction in that if you believe there is going to be a panic then if you are yourself going to panic you should panic early and not leave it.
As well the the 2000 strikes, the Northern Rock bank run, the Icelandic bank collapses etc told us that those who panic early and get out or stock up quick fare the best.
So add in that no one believes a word HMG says as they are all a bunch of liars as soon as they said there was no problem that was the signal to panic.

Laz123

BTW petrol has a shelf life of 3 to 6 months.

Now going into political mode: there is a fuel crisis, obviously caused by moronic panic buying. Many petrol stations have completely run out. This situation has been fuelled (sorry) buy Brexit and lack of HGV drivers. This idiotic government has made noises that the army may have to intervene. Well, make it happen then.

Whitefiver

We have just had a Tesco delivery. Our driver said that they have enough fuel for today's delivery, but if their base store doesn't get a fuel tanker in today, they won't be making deliveries tomorrow. 

You cannot credit the stupidity of some people, panic buying. One good thing is that just maybe HGV drivers will be better paid, and be better thought of in the future. They also need access to better facilities on the road, and that may just encourage more people to apply for such jobs.

Andy_L

Laz123 said:

BTW petrol has a shelf life of 3 to 6 months.

Now going into political mode: there is a fuel crisis, obviously caused by moronic panic buying. Many petrol stations have completely run out. This situation has been fuelled (sorry) buy Brexit and lack of HGV drivers. This idiotic government has made noises that the army may have to intervene. Well, make it happen then.

Isn't the new E10 blend worse than that though?

[Deleted User]

JohnB47 said:

Ok this is not strictly techie, but a bit mathematical, hence my posting here. Perhaps something for the More Or Less radio 4  program to discuss?    Thoughts?

I'm up for the mathematical challenge on this one:

Normally £800 million of fuel sold per week:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/287970/weekly-automotive-fuel-retail-sales-monetary-value-great-britain/

So using £1.35 per litre, that would equate to about 600 million litres sold per week.

There are 31.7 million cars in the UK (ok I'm not including goods vehicles / buses etc here so might need to refine things)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/312594/motorcycle-and-car-registrations-in-the-united-kingdom/

I reckon a car has an average fuel tank size of 60 litres so lets play with the above numbers and see what comes out:

Assume all tanks are empty and all 31.7 million car users want to fill up to the brim then 1,900 million litres (1.9 billion) so that would be about 3 times more than the normal weekly supply.

I know that is very rough maths and doesn't account for lots of factors so hopefully this discussion can revert to the maths and have a discussion on refining this numbers to something useful but it does give a rough idea of what is going on.

Some of the factors we need to include:

• On average all tanks won't be empty at the start of the panic, maybe average 30% full
• Some people don't need much and a full tank will last a month or more, others will use that in a few days
• There could be a pattern of fuel purchases for low users - eg on payday like Friday or end of month
• Some just put £10 a go in to keep them going for a week, others run till near empty and then fill to brim, others may like to keep a minimum half a tank for example.
• Motorcycles have small tanks
• Fuel used for non-car use - eg lawnmowers etc
• Fuel used in goods vehicles and transport etc

Sandtree

JohnB47 said:

I was just wondering, as a purely statical exercise, if it was possible to estimate the likely outcome of every car owner filling their car up In the next few weeks and the likely effect on fuel supply. I mean, you can't actually stockpile petrol can you? What I'm saying is that, after a certain period, we would all be full up and any rush would abate. My car is three quarters full and I'm not rushing to add another quarter. Ok this is not strictly techie, but a bit mathematical, hence my posting here. Perhaps something for the More Or Less radio 4  program to discuss?    Thoughts?

You can model anything you want but there will be a lot of assumptions in there.

The normal household is allowed to store 30L of petrol as standard and can store more with the proper notifications or licenses. That said, there is no one going round checking people's sheds etc to see how much they have... my father would have been in trouble if there was as he worked in the oil industry and often kept the left over samples he was taking for clients to do quality analysis. 

You need to consider things like how much fuel people are actually using... there are some that drive hundreds of miles a day so will need frequent refills... How good is the distribution of fuel, obviously they've suspended the Competition Act for now but you could find one area where ever station has fuel and another where every station is empty... how many do you consider will be filling cans as well as tanks? How much is in depots at the moment for distribution? Does the army get involved?