Is FTSE 100 (This Yr coming Yr) better investment than VLS100 & S&P500 Your Opinion Please !!

Thrugelmir

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

Valuation metrics can be successfully applied to markets as well as companies. Some markets are dominated by companies that are better suited to certain parts of the economic cycle. Markets can therefore have a style bias in the same way that funds do. The S&P 500 being a rather extreme example of this.

With 500 companies to overview predicting the potential movement of the market requires an enormous amount of data. The market can go rise even though there are more share prices that are falling rather than increasing. In the short term money flow drives markets , longer term it's financial fundamentals that keep everything in check. In the midsts of an ongoing pandemic this is no ordinary economic cycle. Going to be a number of twists and turns yet. 

tebbins

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

Valuation metrics can be successfully applied to markets as well as companies. Some markets are dominated by companies that are better suited to certain parts of the economic cycle. Markets can therefore have a style bias in the same way that funds do. The S&P 500 being a rather extreme example of this.

With 500 companies to overview predicting the potential movement of the market requires an enormous amount of data. The market can go rise even though there are more share prices that are falling rather than increasing. In the short term money flow drives markets , longer term it's financial fundamentals that keep everything in check. In the midsts of an ongoing pandemic this is no ordinary economic cycle. Going to be a number of twists and turns yet. 

1929, WWII, start and breakup of Bretton Woods, leaving the gold standard, Cold War, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, 9/11, .com bubble, early 2000s corporate scandals, 1968 civil unrest, rising interest rates, double digit inflation, 20% 30 year bond yields, GFC "greatest depression since the 30s", rise of China and globalisation... When was the last ordinary economic cycle?

Thrugelmir

tebbins said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

Valuation metrics can be successfully applied to markets as well as companies. Some markets are dominated by companies that are better suited to certain parts of the economic cycle. Markets can therefore have a style bias in the same way that funds do. The S&P 500 being a rather extreme example of this.

With 500 companies to overview predicting the potential movement of the market requires an enormous amount of data. The market can go rise even though there are more share prices that are falling rather than increasing. In the short term money flow drives markets , longer term it's financial fundamentals that keep everything in check. In the midsts of an ongoing pandemic this is no ordinary economic cycle. Going to be a number of twists and turns yet. 

1929, WWII, start and breakup of Bretton Woods, leaving the gold standard, Cold War, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, 9/11, .com bubble, early 2000s corporate scandals, 1968 civil unrest, rising interest rates, double digit inflation, 20% 30 year bond yields, GFC "greatest depression since the 30s", rise of China and globalisation... When was the last ordinary economic cycle?

I was referring to truly global events. You are missing the most damaging economically damaging of the past century, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 - 1920 from your list. 

Be carefull not to confuse the real economy with stock market cycles and investors knee jerk reactions to events. Investment depends on confidence. That's human nature. 

adindas

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

I think there is misunderstanding here. You will not contrast or argue with the company auditors. You are using the financial data published by the company which has been audited by auditors to investigate the company balance sheet, revenue growth, profitability, healthy, calculating the important ratios. The company auditors do not get paid to do that for you.

Many of this already available in the investing public spaces for free and have been done/calculated for you using the basic data published by the company which have been audited.

But some people still cannot understand that figures, how use it, understand the figure on the report, calculating the ratios, etc so it will still need to learn how to use it where to find it, etc.

coastline

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

Valuation metrics can be successfully applied to markets as well as companies. Some markets are dominated by companies that are better suited to certain parts of the economic cycle. Markets can therefore have a style bias in the same way that funds do. The S&P 500 being a rather extreme example of this.

With 500 companies to overview predicting the potential movement of the market requires an enormous amount of data. The market can go rise even though there are more share prices that are falling rather than increasing. In the short term money flow drives markets , longer term it's financial fundamentals that keep everything in check. In the midsts of an ongoing pandemic this is no ordinary economic cycle. Going to be a number of twists and turns yet. 

That seems to be the case since April where there's less shares participating in the rally. Number above the 50 day moving average is 58%.

S&P 500 vs % of S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators (indexindicators.com)

Again shown here with the grey shaded area falling on the bottom of the chart.

E9UXhCYWYActwQ1 (900×534) (twimg.com)

Nobody is saying a crash as you just can't predict these things but the probability of some sort of correction is high. There's lot's of blogs highlighting the price compared to the long term average and in some cases it's decades since we've been in this situation. Not testing the 200 day moving average in a full year only happened 13 times in history. 

Technically Speaking: A Test Of The 200-DMA Is Coming (realinvestmentadvice.com)

As Good As it Gets? (awealthofcommonsense.com)

bostonerimus

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

I think there is misunderstanding here. You will not contrast or argue with the company auditors. You are using the financial data published by the company which has been audited by auditors to investigate the company balance sheet, revenue growth, profitability, healthy, calculating the important ratios. The company auditors do not get paid to do that for you.

Many of this already available in the investing public spaces for free and have been done/calculated for you using the basic data published by the company which have been audited.

But some people still cannot understand that figures, how use it, understand the figure on the report, calculating the ratios, etc so it will still need to learn how to use it where to find it, etc.

No misunderstanding. IMO Technical Analysis is misguided over short time periods. I have more respect for Fundamental Analysis, but you have to believe the data and with modern accounting techniques the data can be misleading. 

adindas

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

I think there is misunderstanding here. You will not contrast or argue with the company auditors. You are using the financial data published by the company which has been audited by auditors to investigate the company balance sheet, revenue growth, profitability, healthy, calculating the important ratios. The company auditors do not get paid to do that for you.

Many of this already available in the investing public spaces for free and have been done/calculated for you using the basic data published by the company which have been audited.

But some people still cannot understand that figures, how use it, understand the figure on the report, calculating the ratios, etc so it will still need to learn how to use it where to find it, etc.

No misunderstanding. IMO Technical Analysis is misguided over short time periods. I have more respect for Fundamental Analysis, but you have to believe the data and with modern accounting techniques the data can be misleading. 

Well, you choose what you want to believe or not to believe. It is noone duty here to make other people to believe or not to believe in something including the usefullness of TA or FA. To me I am using them both. Professional Traders certainly used both of them.

But I highlight what you said in your previous post

"if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful"

Are the big four accounting companies, the auditors are doing Technical Analysis (TA) for you ??

The the big four accounting companies, do not even do the Fundamental Analysis (FA) for you, they are simply auditing the company, the balance sheet to be reported to public. So the investors could make an informed decision whether to add, to buy, to hold or even sell the company's shares using their own analysis.

They are getting paid by the companies to meet the bare minimum legal requirement of the public companies listed in the stock exchange.

They do not get paid to do FA & TA for you.

bostonerimus

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

I think there is misunderstanding here. You will not contrast or argue with the company auditors. You are using the financial data published by the company which has been audited by auditors to investigate the company balance sheet, revenue growth, profitability, healthy, calculating the important ratios. The company auditors do not get paid to do that for you.

Many of this already available in the investing public spaces for free and have been done/calculated for you using the basic data published by the company which have been audited.

But some people still cannot understand that figures, how use it, understand the figure on the report, calculating the ratios, etc so it will still need to learn how to use it where to find it, etc.

No misunderstanding. IMO Technical Analysis is misguided over short time periods. I have more respect for Fundamental Analysis, but you have to believe the data and with modern accounting techniques the data can be misleading. 

Well, you choose what you want to believe or not to believe. It is noone duty here to make other people to believe or not to believe in something including the usefullness of TA or FA. To me I am using them both. Professional Traders certainly used both of them.

But I highlight what you said in your previous post

"if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful"

Are the big four accounting companies, the auditors are doing Technical Analysis (TA) for you ??

The the big four accounting companies, do not even do the Fundamental Analysis (FA) for you, they are simply auditing the company, the balance sheet to be reported to public. So the investors could make an informed decision whether to add, to buy, to hold or even sell the company's shares using their own analysis.

They are getting paid by the companies to meet the bare minimum legal requirement of the public companies listed in the stock exchange.

They do not get paid to do FA & TA for you.

Auditors are paid by public companies to look at their books and satisfy financial disclosure rules. There is an obvious conflict of interest. Stock traders will look at that data, but should have a little cynicism. I keep my dabbling in TA to long time periods,  but I still emphasize basic frugality and avoidance of debt over long term stock and bond market statistics. 

adindas

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

I think there is misunderstanding here. You will not contrast or argue with the company auditors. You are using the financial data published by the company which has been audited by auditors to investigate the company balance sheet, revenue growth, profitability, healthy, calculating the important ratios. The company auditors do not get paid to do that for you.

Many of this already available in the investing public spaces for free and have been done/calculated for you using the basic data published by the company which have been audited.

But some people still cannot understand that figures, how use it, understand the figure on the report, calculating the ratios, etc so it will still need to learn how to use it where to find it, etc.

No misunderstanding. IMO Technical Analysis is misguided over short time periods. I have more respect for Fundamental Analysis, but you have to believe the data and with modern accounting techniques the data can be misleading. 

Well, you choose what you want to believe or not to believe. It is noone duty here to make other people to believe or not to believe in something including the usefullness of TA or FA. To me I am using them both. Professional Traders certainly used both of them.

But I highlight what you said in your previous post

"if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful"

Are the big four accounting companies, the auditors are doing Technical Analysis (TA) for you ??

The the big four accounting companies, do not even do the Fundamental Analysis (FA) for you, they are simply auditing the company, the balance sheet to be reported to public. So the investors could make an informed decision whether to add, to buy, to hold or even sell the company's shares using their own analysis.

They are getting paid by the companies to meet the bare minimum legal requirement of the public companies listed in the stock exchange.

They do not get paid to do FA & TA for you.

Auditors are paid by public companies to look at their books and satisfy financial disclosure rules. There is an obvious conflict of interest. Stock traders will look at that data, but should have a little cynicism. I keep my dabbling in TA to long time periods,  but I still emphasize basic frugality and avoidance of debt over long term stock and bond market statistics. 

I quote again your previous post:

"if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful"

Are the four accounting companies doing Fundamental Analysis (FA) for you?? The accounting firms are doing auditing they are not doing FA for you. So you still need learn how to do that or ask someone to do that for you especially if you are doing DIY investing.

And your comment in TA; TA is mainly used for trading and not intended for LT investment. By definition trading is for short term.

People are using TA in trading to identify trading opportunities by analysing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.

But in investing people and fund managers also used TA (for instance VWAP) to help them buy particular stock on particular day at relatively inexpensive prices. DIY investors are also using it to determine the best possible entry on particular stock.

What you believe is up to you. But saying that TA is no use just because you do not use it as you just buy an index fund/mutual fund, do not know how to use it, it is absurd to claim that TA is not useful.

bostonerimus

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

I think there is misunderstanding here. You will not contrast or argue with the company auditors. You are using the financial data published by the company which has been audited by auditors to investigate the company balance sheet, revenue growth, profitability, healthy, calculating the important ratios. The company auditors do not get paid to do that for you.

Many of this already available in the investing public spaces for free and have been done/calculated for you using the basic data published by the company which have been audited.

But some people still cannot understand that figures, how use it, understand the figure on the report, calculating the ratios, etc so it will still need to learn how to use it where to find it, etc.

No misunderstanding. IMO Technical Analysis is misguided over short time periods. I have more respect for Fundamental Analysis, but you have to believe the data and with modern accounting techniques the data can be misleading. 

Well, you choose what you want to believe or not to believe. It is noone duty here to make other people to believe or not to believe in something including the usefullness of TA or FA. To me I am using them both. Professional Traders certainly used both of them.

But I highlight what you said in your previous post

"if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful"

Are the big four accounting companies, the auditors are doing Technical Analysis (TA) for you ??

The the big four accounting companies, do not even do the Fundamental Analysis (FA) for you, they are simply auditing the company, the balance sheet to be reported to public. So the investors could make an informed decision whether to add, to buy, to hold or even sell the company's shares using their own analysis.

They are getting paid by the companies to meet the bare minimum legal requirement of the public companies listed in the stock exchange.

They do not get paid to do FA & TA for you.

Auditors are paid by public companies to look at their books and satisfy financial disclosure rules. There is an obvious conflict of interest. Stock traders will look at that data, but should have a little cynicism. I keep my dabbling in TA to long time periods,  but I still emphasize basic frugality and avoidance of debt over long term stock and bond market statistics. 

I quote again your previous post:

"if  the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful"

Are the four accounting companies doing Fundamental Analysis (FA) for you?? The accounting firms are doing auditing they are not doing FA for you. So you still need learn how to do that or ask someone to do that for you especially if you are doing DIY investing.

And your comment in TA; TA is mainly used for trading and not intended for LT investment. By definition trading is for short term.

People are using TA in trading to identify trading opportunities by analysing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.

But in investing people and fund managers also used TA (for instance VWAP) to help them buy particular stock on particular day at relatively inexpensive prices. DIY investors are also using it to determine the best possible entry on particular stock.

What you believe is up to you. But saying that TA is no use just because you do not use it as you just buy an index fund/mutual fund, do not know how to use it, it is absurd to claim that TA is not useful.

My point about FA is that for single companies you need to approach the publicly available data with a degree of sensible skepticism as bad data will cause you to make bad choices. At the fund and macro economic level that's not so much of a problem. My lack of faith in short term TA also comes down to the data. It's easy to see patterns in stochastic data.