Is FTSE 100 (This Yr coming Yr) better investment than VLS100 & S&P500 Your Opinion Please !!

MX5huggy

Just remind me when was the ATH of the Nikkei 225? 

Thrugelmir

sevenhills said:

Thrugelmir said:

Population density perhaps. If you've ever travelled around the country you'll realise how big Germany is. How spread out the major cities are.

The cause is not important, more care home deaths, the effect on the UK economy has been more severe.

The UK had the fourth highest population density (266 people per square kilometre) of the EU countries in 2014, and was most similar to Germany (227 people per sq km).

In 2014 England and Wales was around 380 per sq km. Excluding Scotland paints a very different picture.  (For comparison Greater London was 5.700, whereas Berlin 4,227) 

bostonerimus

adindas said:

bostonerimus said:

tebbins said:

... what is ATH?

All Time High. The difficulty with that is we don’t know what will happen in the future. So All Time High is really just Highest i Has Yet Been. I’ve never sold anything based solely on its price, but I have rebalanced although I stopped doing that now.

The Traders: Swing traders, Day Traders are doing that all the time with individual stock with high volatility with reasonable range to trade. In this case it does not need to be ATH as long as as they believe they have made enought profit they will sell it and move on to another more profitable trade.

It is a game of probability looking into momentum rather than for long term holding.

In term of making profit, some are succesfull some are not.

But AFAIK most traders are also holding index fund that they hardly trade unless they have a very good reason on doing that. It is for long term holding.

Yes, they are trading on local maxima and some basic statistics. I worry about erroneous indicators that will be produced by short term data sets. I think that for the vast majority of investors it is better to minimize trading and have a simple long term portfolio that avoids individual stocks. Hopefully that will allow them to avoid the dangers that lurk in panic trading during crashes.

Alice_Holt

Re, "I sell it when they reach ATH"  (All time high):

"On Friday the 13th, the S&P 500 finished at an all-time high.

It was the fourth all-time high in as many days. This year alone the S&P has hit 48 new highs."

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/08/all-or-nothing-markets/

adindas

Alice_Holt said:

Re, "I sell it when they reach ATH"  (All time high):

"On Friday the 13th, the S&P 500 finished at an all-time high.

It was the fourth all-time high in as many days. This year alone the S&P has hit 48 new highs."

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/08/all-or-nothing-markets/

Well, if you are refering to me. I do not remember I ever said I sold my S&P 500 when it reaches ATH. You have probably misunderstood what I have said. I have S&P 500 and so far, I have not sold any. This is for long-term holding. Not many people will swing trade an index fund anyway as the volatility (the range) is not there.

I said I have traded individual FAANG stock and Microsoft along with other stocks in emerging market. The risk associated of Swing Trading mega cap stocks is very low. But this will be another dicussion as this thread is not about trading.

What I am considering here is to buy more FTSE 100 and then once they reach well above pre-Pandemic level I will sell majority or all of them and put the money into S&P500. In my personal opinion, The acceleration of recovery for FTSE100 should be faster than S&P500 as it has not reached the pre pandemic level while S&P500 has reached ATH since last year and it is currenlty overheated.

bostonerimus said:

Yes, they are trading on local maxima and some basic statistics. I worry about erroneous indicators that will be produced by short term data sets. I think that for the vast majority of investors it is better to minimize trading and have a simple long term portfolio that avoids individual stocks. Hopefully that will allow them to avoid the dangers that lurk in panic trading during crashes.

Make sense. I do not remember anyone ever suggests to do trading without a proper preparation, knowledgewise and mentally prepared inclduing praparing to lose money. The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

george4064

Bit of a random comparison but I think in 2021 order will be (highest performer to lowest): S&P 500, VLS 100, FTSE 100

2022: VLS 100, S&P 500, FTSE 100

bostonerimus

adindas said:

 The basic preparation might include learning Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA).

More numerology...maybe there's something to be learned from an audit of a company's books, but if the big 4 accounting companies are doing it you should be careful.

Thrugelmir

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

Valuation metrics can be successfully applied to markets as well as companies. Some markets are dominated by companies that are better suited to certain parts of the economic cycle. Markets can therefore have a style bias in the same way that funds do. The S&P 500 being a rather extreme example of this.

tebbins

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

Investors buy companies speculators buy markets.  Anyone that predict the financial performance of hundreds of individual companies to determine if a market will rise or fall over a short term time window. Is wasted on this forum. 

Valuation metrics can be successfully applied to markets as well as companies. Some markets are dominated by companies that are better suited to certain parts of the economic cycle. Markets can therefore have a style bias in the same way that funds do. The S&P 500 being a rather extreme example of this.

Plus the US has lot more of its wealth in stocks than other developed countries, and stock buybacks have (at least according to this one source I personally consider credible: https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_54-Lazonick-Value-Extracting-CEO-Mod-2017.pdf) exceeded dividends at extracting value from companies to boost share prices, reversing the previous trend of the S&P 500 index slightly its market cap due to net equity issuance (IPOs, options, new share issuances i.e. dilution, source: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.researchaffiliates.com/documents/FAJ-2003-Two-Percent-Dilution.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiSzqn-zMXyAhXDoVwKHXplAyUQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3k73yZYUiPErU7pmTxLLQD).
Also I don't buy the hype around the S&P's ~50% tech weighting (IT + comms + I count Tesla and Amazon as the same). A lot of these are simply consumer or media companies. I think what's going on is comparable with the extremes of the .com bubble, when companies that had little to do with it could boost their stock price by adding ".com" at the end of their name (no specific source just reading Wikipedia).