Funds for a stockmarket downturn/crash

tranquility1

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

Alice_Holt said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

A multi asset portfolio (or fund) would include genuinely diversified components which perform differently in good/bad times. 

Equities and bonds don't do that in reality.

Ah right, so you feel that, because you believe that equities and bonds are correlated, they effectively constitute a single asset class?  So how many otherwise different classes need to be included and in what sort of proportions, in order to satisfy your unilateral definition?  Are there any available funds that fit your definition?

No, I don't think equities and bonds are a single asset class. I just don't think they are the level of diversification which they are perceived as providing.

I've already outlined (two versions) of the portfolio I suggest offers greater true diversification. eg:

60% equities (I like VWRP)
20% gold

5% silver
5% crypto
10% cash

I haven't looked for such a fund, but I'd guess this is a DIY portfolio only. And especially so since I believe that it's important of possible to hold the metals yourself.

So you're effectively saying that there's no such thing as a multi-asset fund, in terms of an off-the-shelf product that would fit your chosen definition?

But regarding holding gold/silver, that's something I can't imagine a fund offering.

     Incorrect.


   https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/fund-tips/2020/02/27/mitigate-market-downside-with-personal-assets-trust/

   https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/im46/personal-assets-trust-plc-ord

  https://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/homepage

  https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/funds/tearsheet/summary?s=GB00B8510Q93:GBX



  Are you aware of EFT's ?

 https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2020/01/23/the-right-routes-to-gold-and-property/



This is an excellent site which may help you improve your investment knowledge: 

https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2021/

They deliver gold/silver to your house?

Thankfully no. When you buy units/shares in a fund or ETF/ETC, you don't become a direct owner of the underlying investments. If it is an equities fund, you don't receive share certificates for each of the fund's holdings in the post, and if there are investments in physical metals, they are held in a vault by a nominee. It does mean that you have to trust the fund manager and their auditors, but on the flip side you don't have to worry about being burgled or paying for storage and insurance. If you want your gold/silver in hand because you think society is going to collapse, then perhaps give collective investments a miss entirely and invest in guns, farmland and a bunker as diversifiers.

I think you're over-egging the pud with the "guns, farmland and bunker" comment. 

Owning the gold isn't only about societal collapse. It's about banking collapse and currency debasement/devaluation, which are realistic scenarios.

Currency debasement/devaluation is a realistic scenario, and happens all the time to a greater or lesser extent. In that scenario, even extreme examples such as happened in Zimbabwe, goods and services were still sold using fiat currency. While it certainly would be inconvenient to experience the effects of hyperinflation while waiting for T+2 settlement on your gold ETC sale, it's vanishingly unlikely even a government as incompetent as our current one could mismanage its way into that sort of situation, and if they did all bets are off as to the fabric of society. Banking collapse would likely have similar consequences. I don't think your local supermarket will be accepting payment in gold in either scenario, so I wouldn't consider "electronic gold" to be inferior as a portfolio diversifier.

Gold wouldn't be used for supermarket payments, quite obviously. Unless you plan on buying the entire Isle of goods with your £300 gold sovereign.

Gold is a store of wealth to ensure that any such currency devaluation doesn't impact that part of your wealth which is stored in gold. 

Currency devaluation is, in my view, the most likely of outcomes, considering the level of debt we are in. 

masonic

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

Alice_Holt said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

A multi asset portfolio (or fund) would include genuinely diversified components which perform differently in good/bad times. 

Equities and bonds don't do that in reality.

Ah right, so you feel that, because you believe that equities and bonds are correlated, they effectively constitute a single asset class?  So how many otherwise different classes need to be included and in what sort of proportions, in order to satisfy your unilateral definition?  Are there any available funds that fit your definition?

No, I don't think equities and bonds are a single asset class. I just don't think they are the level of diversification which they are perceived as providing.

I've already outlined (two versions) of the portfolio I suggest offers greater true diversification. eg:

60% equities (I like VWRP)
20% gold

5% silver
5% crypto
10% cash

I haven't looked for such a fund, but I'd guess this is a DIY portfolio only. And especially so since I believe that it's important of possible to hold the metals yourself.

So you're effectively saying that there's no such thing as a multi-asset fund, in terms of an off-the-shelf product that would fit your chosen definition?

But regarding holding gold/silver, that's something I can't imagine a fund offering.

     Incorrect.


   https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/fund-tips/2020/02/27/mitigate-market-downside-with-personal-assets-trust/

   https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/im46/personal-assets-trust-plc-ord

  https://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/homepage

  https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/funds/tearsheet/summary?s=GB00B8510Q93:GBX



  Are you aware of EFT's ?

 https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2020/01/23/the-right-routes-to-gold-and-property/



This is an excellent site which may help you improve your investment knowledge: 

https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2021/

They deliver gold/silver to your house?

Thankfully no. When you buy units/shares in a fund or ETF/ETC, you don't become a direct owner of the underlying investments. If it is an equities fund, you don't receive share certificates for each of the fund's holdings in the post, and if there are investments in physical metals, they are held in a vault by a nominee. It does mean that you have to trust the fund manager and their auditors, but on the flip side you don't have to worry about being burgled or paying for storage and insurance. If you want your gold/silver in hand because you think society is going to collapse, then perhaps give collective investments a miss entirely and invest in guns, farmland and a bunker as diversifiers.

I think you're over-egging the pud with the "guns, farmland and bunker" comment. 

Owning the gold isn't only about societal collapse. It's about banking collapse and currency debasement/devaluation, which are realistic scenarios.

Currency debasement/devaluation is a realistic scenario, and happens all the time to a greater or lesser extent. In that scenario, even extreme examples such as happened in Zimbabwe, goods and services were still sold using fiat currency. While it certainly would be inconvenient to experience the effects of hyperinflation while waiting for T+2 settlement on your gold ETC sale, it's vanishingly unlikely even a government as incompetent as our current one could mismanage its way into that sort of situation, and if they did all bets are off as to the fabric of society. Banking collapse would likely have similar consequences. I don't think your local supermarket will be accepting payment in gold in either scenario, so I wouldn't consider "electronic gold" to be inferior as a portfolio diversifier.

Gold wouldn't be used for supermarket payments, quite obviously. Unless you plan on buying the entire Isle of goods with your £300 gold sovereign.

Gold is a store of wealth to ensure that any such currency devaluation doesn't impact that part of your wealth which is stored in gold. 

Currency devaluation is, in my view, the most likely of outcomes, considering the level of debt we are in. 

So then why are you implying that it matters where your gold is held (that it should be delivered to your home)?

While it is not a good thing that our debt:GDP ratio is up at around 85%* having doubled since 2008, it has pretty much levelled off and that ratio doesn't even put us in the top 30 nations globally. We've got a long way to go to catch Japan on 240%.

* Actually a little higher in 2020/21, but about half of this is down to a temporary Covid dip in GDP, so perhaps we are now in the high 90s according to typical GDP, Japan has 2.5x our debt:GBP now and the USA is 20% higher.

tranquility1

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

Alice_Holt said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

A multi asset portfolio (or fund) would include genuinely diversified components which perform differently in good/bad times. 

Equities and bonds don't do that in reality.

Ah right, so you feel that, because you believe that equities and bonds are correlated, they effectively constitute a single asset class?  So how many otherwise different classes need to be included and in what sort of proportions, in order to satisfy your unilateral definition?  Are there any available funds that fit your definition?

No, I don't think equities and bonds are a single asset class. I just don't think they are the level of diversification which they are perceived as providing.

I've already outlined (two versions) of the portfolio I suggest offers greater true diversification. eg:

60% equities (I like VWRP)
20% gold

5% silver
5% crypto
10% cash

I haven't looked for such a fund, but I'd guess this is a DIY portfolio only. And especially so since I believe that it's important of possible to hold the metals yourself.

So you're effectively saying that there's no such thing as a multi-asset fund, in terms of an off-the-shelf product that would fit your chosen definition?

But regarding holding gold/silver, that's something I can't imagine a fund offering.

     Incorrect.


   https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/fund-tips/2020/02/27/mitigate-market-downside-with-personal-assets-trust/

   https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/im46/personal-assets-trust-plc-ord

  https://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/homepage

  https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/funds/tearsheet/summary?s=GB00B8510Q93:GBX



  Are you aware of EFT's ?

 https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2020/01/23/the-right-routes-to-gold-and-property/



This is an excellent site which may help you improve your investment knowledge: 

https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2021/

They deliver gold/silver to your house?

Thankfully no. When you buy units/shares in a fund or ETF/ETC, you don't become a direct owner of the underlying investments. If it is an equities fund, you don't receive share certificates for each of the fund's holdings in the post, and if there are investments in physical metals, they are held in a vault by a nominee. It does mean that you have to trust the fund manager and their auditors, but on the flip side you don't have to worry about being burgled or paying for storage and insurance. If you want your gold/silver in hand because you think society is going to collapse, then perhaps give collective investments a miss entirely and invest in guns, farmland and a bunker as diversifiers.

I think you're over-egging the pud with the "guns, farmland and bunker" comment. 

Owning the gold isn't only about societal collapse. It's about banking collapse and currency debasement/devaluation, which are realistic scenarios.

Currency debasement/devaluation is a realistic scenario, and happens all the time to a greater or lesser extent. In that scenario, even extreme examples such as happened in Zimbabwe, goods and services were still sold using fiat currency. While it certainly would be inconvenient to experience the effects of hyperinflation while waiting for T+2 settlement on your gold ETC sale, it's vanishingly unlikely even a government as incompetent as our current one could mismanage its way into that sort of situation, and if they did all bets are off as to the fabric of society. Banking collapse would likely have similar consequences. I don't think your local supermarket will be accepting payment in gold in either scenario, so I wouldn't consider "electronic gold" to be inferior as a portfolio diversifier.

Gold wouldn't be used for supermarket payments, quite obviously. Unless you plan on buying the entire Isle of goods with your £300 gold sovereign.

Gold is a store of wealth to ensure that any such currency devaluation doesn't impact that part of your wealth which is stored in gold. 

Currency devaluation is, in my view, the most likely of outcomes, considering the level of debt we are in. 

So then why are you implying that it matters where your gold is held (that it should be delivered to your home)?

While it is not a good thing that our debt:GDP ratio is up at around 85%* having doubled since 2008, it has pretty much levelled off and that ratio doesn't even put us in the top 30 nations globally. We've got a long way to go to catch Japan on 240%.

* Actually a little higher in 2020/21, but about half of this is down to a temporary Covid dip in GDP, so perhaps we are now in the high 90s according to typical GDP, Japan has 2.5x our debt:GBP now and the USA is 20% higher.

It matters because we don't know what kind of upheaval will occur. A gold ETC may be absolutely fine. But it's just numbers on a screen. If you don't hold the gold, you don't really own it. This is pretty obvious. 

And all that whataboutery regarding Japan is of absolutely no relevance to us. 


Regarding gold, there is also the additional factor that some sort of return to the gold standard may happen. And if that does transpire then the price of gold could rise.

masonic

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

masonic said:

tranquility1 said:

Alice_Holt said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

eskbanker said:

tranquility1 said:

A multi asset portfolio (or fund) would include genuinely diversified components which perform differently in good/bad times. 

Equities and bonds don't do that in reality.

Ah right, so you feel that, because you believe that equities and bonds are correlated, they effectively constitute a single asset class?  So how many otherwise different classes need to be included and in what sort of proportions, in order to satisfy your unilateral definition?  Are there any available funds that fit your definition?

No, I don't think equities and bonds are a single asset class. I just don't think they are the level of diversification which they are perceived as providing.

I've already outlined (two versions) of the portfolio I suggest offers greater true diversification. eg:

60% equities (I like VWRP)
20% gold

5% silver
5% crypto
10% cash

I haven't looked for such a fund, but I'd guess this is a DIY portfolio only. And especially so since I believe that it's important of possible to hold the metals yourself.

So you're effectively saying that there's no such thing as a multi-asset fund, in terms of an off-the-shelf product that would fit your chosen definition?

But regarding holding gold/silver, that's something I can't imagine a fund offering.

     Incorrect.


   https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/fund-tips/2020/02/27/mitigate-market-downside-with-personal-assets-trust/

   https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/im46/personal-assets-trust-plc-ord

  https://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/homepage

  https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/funds/tearsheet/summary?s=GB00B8510Q93:GBX



  Are you aware of EFT's ?

 https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2020/01/23/the-right-routes-to-gold-and-property/



This is an excellent site which may help you improve your investment knowledge: 

https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2021/

They deliver gold/silver to your house?

Thankfully no. When you buy units/shares in a fund or ETF/ETC, you don't become a direct owner of the underlying investments. If it is an equities fund, you don't receive share certificates for each of the fund's holdings in the post, and if there are investments in physical metals, they are held in a vault by a nominee. It does mean that you have to trust the fund manager and their auditors, but on the flip side you don't have to worry about being burgled or paying for storage and insurance. If you want your gold/silver in hand because you think society is going to collapse, then perhaps give collective investments a miss entirely and invest in guns, farmland and a bunker as diversifiers.

I think you're over-egging the pud with the "guns, farmland and bunker" comment. 

Owning the gold isn't only about societal collapse. It's about banking collapse and currency debasement/devaluation, which are realistic scenarios.

Currency debasement/devaluation is a realistic scenario, and happens all the time to a greater or lesser extent. In that scenario, even extreme examples such as happened in Zimbabwe, goods and services were still sold using fiat currency. While it certainly would be inconvenient to experience the effects of hyperinflation while waiting for T+2 settlement on your gold ETC sale, it's vanishingly unlikely even a government as incompetent as our current one could mismanage its way into that sort of situation, and if they did all bets are off as to the fabric of society. Banking collapse would likely have similar consequences. I don't think your local supermarket will be accepting payment in gold in either scenario, so I wouldn't consider "electronic gold" to be inferior as a portfolio diversifier.

Gold wouldn't be used for supermarket payments, quite obviously. Unless you plan on buying the entire Isle of goods with your £300 gold sovereign.

Gold is a store of wealth to ensure that any such currency devaluation doesn't impact that part of your wealth which is stored in gold. 

Currency devaluation is, in my view, the most likely of outcomes, considering the level of debt we are in. 

So then why are you implying that it matters where your gold is held (that it should be delivered to your home)?

While it is not a good thing that our debt:GDP ratio is up at around 85%* having doubled since 2008, it has pretty much levelled off and that ratio doesn't even put us in the top 30 nations globally. We've got a long way to go to catch Japan on 240%.

* Actually a little higher in 2020/21, but about half of this is down to a temporary Covid dip in GDP, so perhaps we are now in the high 90s according to typical GDP, Japan has 2.5x our debt:GBP now and the USA is 20% higher.

It matters because we don't know what kind of upheaval will occur. A gold ETC may be absolutely fine. But it's just numbers on a screen. If you don't hold the gold, you don't really own it. This is pretty obvious.

Then you must feel the same about owning other investments in electronic form. If a necessary condition of owning it is that you have physical possession of it, that rather limits your investment options. Certainly owning shares traded on a stockmarket or units in collective investment funds could not be considered something anyone really owns in that odd definition. So we're back to guns, farmland and a bunker.

tranquility1 said:

And all that whataboutery regarding Japan is of absolutely no relevance to us.

The term 'whataboutery' is used when someone charges you with hypocrisy, when they claim you are guilty of something you are chastising others for. For example, a Soviet dictator may respond to criticism of gulags by pointing out slavery has happened on the soil of his critic. It is more formally known as the tu quoque logical fallacy.

That is not what I am doing. What I am doing is making international comparisons for the purpose of showing that other developed nations have been able to manage high levels of debts over the long term without collapsing into anarchy or facing currency collapse. If you find foreign nations objectionable, then a comparison could be made to the long term mortgage debt carried by many hard working UK families, which may be quite a bit higher than their gross annual income, but in the vast majority of cases does not end in their bankruptcy. The Government is in a great position with respect to its debt as it has levers it can pull to bend the situation to its advantage. It is, however, responsible enough to do so subtly and delicately, so it may let inflation run a little higher than its official target, and it may try to keep interest rates a little lower than they perhaps should be, and over the years this will be to its benefit. What it isn't going to do is shock the economy in some attempt to wipe out the excess debt in the short term.

tranquility1 said:

Regarding gold, there is also the additional factor that some sort of return to the gold standard may happen. And if that does transpire then the price of gold could rise.

If you believe that, I think we are so far apart on our economic views, there probably isn't any point continuing this discussion.

Aminatidi

It does seem a bit odd that people get hung up on owning gold yet generally don't have physical cash or bond certificates or share certificates stuffed under the mattress.

tranquility1

If you don't physically own an asset, it is just numbers on a screen until you cash it in.  I shouldn't have to point this out.

And even if you have cash under your mattress, it's just numbers on a bit of paper.  That bit of paper can be devalued at anytime.


How this is even debatable is surprising to me.

Stargunner

tranquility1 said:

If you don't physically own an asset, it is just numbers on a screen until you cash it in.  I shouldn't have to point this out.

And even if you have cash under your mattress, it's just numbers on a bit of paper.  That bit of paper can be devalued at anytime.


How this is even debatable is surprising to me.

I started this thread and maybe it’s time to end it as your replies are just getting stupid.

tranquility1

Stargunner said:

tranquility1 said:

If you don't physically own an asset, it is just numbers on a screen until you cash it in.  I shouldn't have to point this out.

And even if you have cash under your mattress, it's just numbers on a bit of paper.  That bit of paper can be devalued at anytime.


How this is even debatable is surprising to me.

I started this thread and maybe it’s time to end it as your replies are just getting stupid.

You don't have the ability to end the thread.  And even if you did, I am correct in what I am saying, which is why it's uncomfortable to read.

older_and_no_wiser

Come on chaps. Let's keep the conversation to a sensible level - where most of us are just wanting some basic knowledgeable advice.

tranquility1

older_and_no_wiser said:

Come on chaps. Let's keep the conversation to a sensible level - where most of us are just wanting some basic knowledgeable advice.

I'm sure if you ask specific questions you will get specific answers.