Are Property Prices Likely to Go Down Post SDH?

Davesnave

GDB2222 said:

Davesnave said:

GDB2222 said:

Interesting times ahead, possibly.  

Definitely. Those who have deemed Covid a "window of opportunity" have the avowed aim of corralling the bulk of the population in cities and keeping them within a tight radius of home; within pedalling range anyway.

That hasn't gone down well with some who can read the runes. I walk a lot  off the beaten track in my very rural area and what's impressed me recently is the number of homes having serious money thrown at them, compared with, say, 10 years ago. However, consulting Mr Google shows there has been much change going on, not just now, when builders are virtually unobtainable, but also in the preceding period. It's been a quiet revolution I didn't really notice, also assisted by legislation allowing the re-purposing of redundant farm buildings.  

I don't see rural prices dropping back again.

Out of interest, how long does a newly erected farm building have to be redundant in order to be allowed to repurpose it?

Theoretically, ten years, as that's the time it must be in non-agricultural use, but I imagine planners would take a dim view of anything that looked as if it had been erected solely for conversion potential. Normally, there is a shift in the type of agriculture being done, but various fiddles go on. For example, on our property the barn was erected ostensibly to house goats, but the goats were never moved in there and horses occupied the stable areas. One also doesn't install a separate electricity supply and a septic tank just for goats! There was probably a long term ulterior motive.

Almost all the nearby properties here are barn conversions. The agriculture has changed a lot in the past 30 years. We are still called 'Pig Farm' on the correspondence from Western Power, but there isn't a pig within a mile of here now, thank goodness!

Crashy_Time

GDB2222 said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

If that were true then there would be a whole load of chains falling through right now and properties coming back onto the market.

That certainly isn't happening where we are.

What is happening is that more sales are completing but hardly any new properties are coming onto the market to replace them resulting in less and less properties being available to buy resulting in even more competition for the handful of properties that do come onto the market.

Unless the supply of properties massively increases then there won't be a decrease in property prices any time soon.

I really like Yorkshire, and property prices are reasonable compared to London. Given WFH, it’s hardly surprising that some people are moving from London to Yorkshire. The consequence is that some parts of the country, like Yorkshire, are red hot, whilst others, like London, are cool. 

I think it’s easy to look around the local market and draw wrong conclusions about the rest of the country. 

Yep, people do it all the time.

Newnoel

GDB2222 said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

If that were true then there would be a whole load of chains falling through right now and properties coming back onto the market.

That certainly isn't happening where we are.

What is happening is that more sales are completing but hardly any new properties are coming onto the market to replace them resulting in less and less properties being available to buy resulting in even more competition for the handful of properties that do come onto the market.

Unless the supply of properties massively increases then there won't be a decrease in property prices any time soon.

I really like Yorkshire, and property prices are reasonable compared to London. Given WFH, it’s hardly surprising that some people are moving from London to Yorkshire. The consequence is that some parts of the country, like Yorkshire, are red hot, whilst others, like London, are cool. 

I think it’s easy to look around the local market and draw wrong conclusions about the rest of the country. 

Interesting comment - my personal experience is that in my area of London prices have fallen back 10% or so over the past couple of years, but have been rising quickly since Spring as London office workers start to go back. A process likely to accelerate 

Crashy_Time

Newnoel said:

GDB2222 said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

If that were true then there would be a whole load of chains falling through right now and properties coming back onto the market.

That certainly isn't happening where we are.

What is happening is that more sales are completing but hardly any new properties are coming onto the market to replace them resulting in less and less properties being available to buy resulting in even more competition for the handful of properties that do come onto the market.

Unless the supply of properties massively increases then there won't be a decrease in property prices any time soon.

I really like Yorkshire, and property prices are reasonable compared to London. Given WFH, it’s hardly surprising that some people are moving from London to Yorkshire. The consequence is that some parts of the country, like Yorkshire, are red hot, whilst others, like London, are cool. 

I think it’s easy to look around the local market and draw wrong conclusions about the rest of the country. 

Interesting comment - my personal experience is that in my area of London prices have fallen back 10% or so over the past couple of years, but have been rising quickly since Spring as London office workers start to go back. A process likely to accelerate 

Newnoel said:

GDB2222 said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

If that were true then there would be a whole load of chains falling through right now and properties coming back onto the market.

That certainly isn't happening where we are.

What is happening is that more sales are completing but hardly any new properties are coming onto the market to replace them resulting in less and less properties being available to buy resulting in even more competition for the handful of properties that do come onto the market.

Unless the supply of properties massively increases then there won't be a decrease in property prices any time soon.

I really like Yorkshire, and property prices are reasonable compared to London. Given WFH, it’s hardly surprising that some people are moving from London to Yorkshire. The consequence is that some parts of the country, like Yorkshire, are red hot, whilst others, like London, are cool. 

I think it’s easy to look around the local market and draw wrong conclusions about the rest of the country. 

Interesting comment - my personal experience is that in my area of London prices have fallen back 10% or so over the past couple of years, but have been rising quickly since Spring as London office workers start to go back. A process likely to accelerate 

Back from where?

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

"The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in January 2021 is 98,830, 17.9% higher than January 2020 and 25.2% lower than December 2020."

Not sure we can really read too much into that TBH.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

"The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in January 2021 is 98,830, 17.9% higher than January 2020 and 25.2% lower than December 2020."

Not sure we can really read too much into that TBH.

On the contrary, those figures prove that properties are being realistically priced.

Even during the biggest crisis this country has seen in a generation, with unprecedented restrictions on physically leaving your home and "end of the world" type doom and gloom predictions from the HPC crowd, ordinary people just got on with their lives and still managed to buy and sell 1,000,000 homes last year just as they have for years.

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

"The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in January 2021 is 98,830, 17.9% higher than January 2020 and 25.2% lower than December 2020."

Not sure we can really read too much into that TBH.

On the contrary, those figures prove that properties are being realistically priced.

Even during the biggest crisis this country has seen in a generation, with unprecedented restrictions on physically leaving your home and "end of the world" type doom and gloom predictions from the HPC crowd, ordinary people just got on with their lives and still managed to buy and sell 1,000,000 homes last year just as they have for years.

https://www.mortgagefinancegazette.com/market-news/housing/property-sales-dip-36-april-following-stamp-duty-holiday-dash-21-05-2021/

The data is skewed by desperate interventions from a government desperate to keep the property  bubble alive and far too low for too long interest rates, many recent mortgage debtors will be hurt if mortgage rates rise IMO. The Stamp Duty stunt shows us that property (and the price of money) is far from realistically priced.