Are Property Prices Likely to Go Down Post SDH?

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

RelievedSheff

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

If that were true then there would be a whole load of chains falling through right now and properties coming back onto the market.

That certainly isn't happening where we are.

What is happening is that more sales are completing but hardly any new properties are coming onto the market to replace them resulting in less and less properties being available to buy resulting in even more competition for the handful of properties that do come onto the market.

Unless the supply of properties massively increases then there won't be a decrease in property prices any time soon.

GDB2222

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

No, it suggests that a lot of people were allowed mortgage debt when they couldn`t afford stamp duty and there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

If that were true then there would be a whole load of chains falling through right now and properties coming back onto the market.

That certainly isn't happening where we are.

What is happening is that more sales are completing but hardly any new properties are coming onto the market to replace them resulting in less and less properties being available to buy resulting in even more competition for the handful of properties that do come onto the market.

Unless the supply of properties massively increases then there won't be a decrease in property prices any time soon.

I really like Yorkshire, and property prices are reasonable compared to London. Given WFH, it’s hardly surprising that some people are moving from London to Yorkshire. The consequence is that some parts of the country, like Yorkshire, are red hot, whilst others, like London, are cool. 

I think it’s easy to look around the local market and draw wrong conclusions about the rest of the country. 

GDB2222

I will just add that I am in North Norfolk at the moment, and the property market is red hot here, too. The reason it used to be cheap was that job prospects around here were not that great. Commuting to London is at least 3 hours each way.

The pandemic has changed all that. The local economy is heavily based on tourism, and that has boomed because of staycations. Wages have boomed. Any spare properties have become holiday cottages. It’s even possible to earn a London salary and enjoy a Norfolk lifestyle.

It's a big gamble for people with London jobs, though. If WFH ends, it would be a killer to commute over six hours a day. Even just two days a week, say, it doesn’t sound like much fun. So, there’s a risk that they’re going to sell up. And, their homes will come on the market at the same time as the staycationers will start holidaying abroad again, and the holiday cottages will be coming on the market. It could all unravel quite spectacularly.

Or not!Who knows?

Interesting times ahead, possibly.  

lisyloo

GDB2222 said:

I will just add that I am in North Norfolk at the moment, and the property market is red hot here, too. The reason it used to be cheap was that job prospects around here were not that great. Commuting to London is at least 3 hours each way.

The pandemic has changed all that. The local economy is heavily based on tourism, and that has boomed because of staycations. Wages have boomed. Any spare properties have become holiday cottages. It’s even possible to earn a London salary and enjoy a Norfolk lifestyle.

It's a big gamble for people with London jobs, though. If WFH ends, it would be a killer to commute over six hours a day. Even just two days a week, say, it doesn’t sound like much fun. So, there’s a risk that they’re going to sell up. And, their homes will come on the market at the same time as the staycationers will start holidaying abroad again, and the holiday cottages will be coming on the market. It could all unravel quite spectacularly.

Or not!Who knows?

Interesting times ahead, possibly.  

I took a new job recently and was careful to establish the future expectations and also the contractual situation.
the contractual situation is that my base office is 3 miles away so if they want me to travel they have to pay.
the expectation was travel 4 days per month and it’s been zero (partly because they don’t want to pay).
of course things can change but it would be daft to buy without establishing the post Covid situation with your job and taking into account that things could change.

having said that some people may have decided to just take a risk on it.
i know of one person taking the possibility of travel risk but they didn’t buy and they will be retiring at the end of their contract so if there does end up being too much travel it’s at least limited to a short term situation.
as it happens they’ve now lost their desk in a busy office.

its something I’d be very careful of when looking at jobs, but sometimes its just worth people taking a risk when they weight up the benefits.
i had to change jobs 3 months ago because the commute was unacceptable. It wasn’t a big deal for me and It just may not be a big issue for people with marketable skills.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Isn`t the best way for government to collect this revenue to just bump it onto sellers? 

Yes because sellers will just bump it on to buyers and buyers will just bump it on to the mortgage so the extra monthly cost on a typical 25 year mortgage will be negligible. Win/win for everyone.

Why have they not already done it in that case?

You'd have to ask the government that question for any chance of a definitive answer but I would guess they've been a little preoccupied with Brexit and Covid-19 perhaps?

 if they want to sell they can price realistically and still pay the tax owed?

The inconvenient fact that transactions are at record highs would suggest properties are being realistically priced!

Property transactions hit 10-year high in January

June set to be record month for UK property transactions

there was a stamp duty "holiday", inconvenient for the government that wants to boost prices but also needs revenue.

The stamp duty holiday was introduced to boost transactions not prices.

The very definition of "realistic pricing" is that buyers and sellers were able to swiftly agree on a price; the simple fact that transaction levels have been around 1,000,000 a year for years now proves that this is exactly what has been happening.

At the end of the day, while you and a handful of others on HPC complain and moan about the housing market, every single year literally millions of ordinary people are just getting on with their lives and buying and selling UK homes. Perhaps you should think on that rather than yet another contrived reason as to why it's definitely "crashy time" this time?

lookstraightahead

Can't believe anyone would risk 'possibly' not having to commute.

I moved two hours away from my workplace prior to the pandemic. I was going to leave as didn't want to commute, but the pandemic hit so I could work from home. Everyone worked from home to the point office space was no longer needed.

now things have changed - glad I've handed in my notice and got a local job, as all staff now must return to work permanently.

I only have to do it for the next few weeks, but it's come as a huge shock to some.

People just don't plan any more! 

Newnoel

To go back to the OP's original question, I would direct you to the recent prices rises in other developed nations - few of whom had a property tax holiday - but most like the UK saw QE on a truly gargantuan scale. 

QE today stands at £900bn, compared to £200bn in the teeth of the 2008 recession. All that extra cash continues to pump into asset prices. The recent price rise is little to do with a small Stamp Duty holiday

Davesnave

GDB2222 said:

Interesting times ahead, possibly.  

Definitely. Those who have deemed Covid a "window of opportunity" have the avowed aim of corralling the bulk of the population in cities and keeping them within a tight radius of home; within pedalling range anyway.

That hasn't gone down well with some who can read the runes. I walk a lot  off the beaten track in my very rural area and what's impressed me recently is the number of homes having serious money thrown at them, compared with, say, 10 years ago. However, consulting Mr Google shows there has been much change going on, not just now, when builders are virtually unobtainable, but also in the preceding period. It's been a quiet revolution I didn't really notice, also assisted by legislation allowing the re-purposing of redundant farm buildings.  

I don't see rural prices dropping back again.

GDB2222

Davesnave said:

GDB2222 said:

Interesting times ahead, possibly.  

Definitely. Those who have deemed Covid a "window of opportunity" have the avowed aim of corralling the bulk of the population in cities and keeping them within a tight radius of home; within pedalling range anyway.

That hasn't gone down well with some who can read the runes. I walk a lot  off the beaten track in my very rural area and what's impressed me recently is the number of homes having serious money thrown at them, compared with, say, 10 years ago. However, consulting Mr Google shows there has been much change going on, not just now, when builders are virtually unobtainable, but also in the preceding period. It's been a quiet revolution I didn't really notice, also assisted by legislation allowing the re-purposing of redundant farm buildings.  

I don't see rural prices dropping back again.

Out of interest, how long does a newly erected farm building have to be redundant in order to be allowed to repurpose it?