Is the stock market even real anymore?

thegentleway

GeordieGeorge said:

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

graeme16 said:

It is easy to say that you have the better strategy over me because the markets have rebounded and everyone who was stood on the side-lines have been left with there jaws on the floor in a puddle of regret, 

No people with a better strategy than you would have invested as and when the money comes in, rather than sitting in cash waiting for 'the' crash (and then not investing when 'a' crash came).

You picked a strategy in 2015 which backfired. You have to decide if you are going to continue with the same and potentially miss out on the next 5 years of returns or change tack now and potentially see your investment drop (or middle ground as suggested above).

We haven't historically had this level of intervention outside of war time, let alone over a bad round of the flu. 

Well with this level of analytical thinking why do you need us? Your interpretation of figures and graphs is clearly superior to the 'experts'. Where did you do your PhD and postdoctoral research out of interest?  And did you specialise in epidemiology, virology, statistics etc?

You think the "experts" all agree with each other?

If not, which ones are right?


And how do you know that the "experts" you are listening to aren't corrupt and are a pure as the driven snow and have no self interest or pressure put on them or anything else which sways them?


It is all of our duty to think for ourselves and hold the "expert's" feet to the fire. 

But that's not what happens.

What happens is that the powers that be have an outcome they desire. And they put the experts that concur with their agenda on TV and they omit the ones that don't. And not only that but they deride and assassinate the dissenting experts' opinions.

God gave you a brain. Use it.

That’s quite some conspiracy theory. It’s all rubbish of course, you’ve joined dots to make your own picture, and are now insulting the intelligence of people who are better informed than you.

The government doesn’t choose which economists get on television, for one thing. Ours is often invited on, goes when he has something interesting to say, and isn’t either told what that view is by anyone or is asked what it is before he appears.

Nobody cares about economists.

But you were just complaining about 5ème being wheeled out to support the conspiracy.

That’s the problem with conspiracists, you change your story 180 degrees when presented with evidence that you were wrong, and just continue with the beliefs.You beliefs, it turns out, are nothing to do with the evidence.

What's 5ème?

Cinquième. C’est un “auto correct”, n’est-ce pas?

Now, have you any I tension if engaging with the subject rather than casting around for typographic errors to avoid doing so?

What's Cinquième?

I find your English difficult enough to understand without your typos and foreign words.

Toutes mes excuses, je parle Anglais et Français à la maison, et mon téléphone me corrige souvent en français. Il est assez facile de rechercher des mots français en ligne, mais ce n'est clairement pas pertinent pour la discussion. Je vais laisser celui-ci pour l'instant.

Google translate is getting very good but that’s a very clumsy translation of “I'll leave this one for now”

5eme is 5th. 

I’ve my spoken French exam for citizenship soon. Clearly I’ve some work to do, but I think I’m there or thereabouts.

Well if you didn’t use google translate and you can speak as well as you write then you’ll be fine! French is my first language but it’s a bit rusty because I don’t get to practise it enough, especially written. I’d probably would have gone for “laisse tomber”. Good luck with your exam!

GeordieGeorge

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

graeme16 said:

It is easy to say that you have the better strategy over me because the markets have rebounded and everyone who was stood on the side-lines have been left with there jaws on the floor in a puddle of regret, 

No people with a better strategy than you would have invested as and when the money comes in, rather than sitting in cash waiting for 'the' crash (and then not investing when 'a' crash came).

You picked a strategy in 2015 which backfired. You have to decide if you are going to continue with the same and potentially miss out on the next 5 years of returns or change tack now and potentially see your investment drop (or middle ground as suggested above).

We haven't historically had this level of intervention outside of war time, let alone over a bad round of the flu. 

Well with this level of analytical thinking why do you need us? Your interpretation of figures and graphs is clearly superior to the 'experts'. Where did you do your PhD and postdoctoral research out of interest?  And did you specialise in epidemiology, virology, statistics etc?

You think the "experts" all agree with each other?

If not, which ones are right?


And how do you know that the "experts" you are listening to aren't corrupt and are a pure as the driven snow and have no self interest or pressure put on them or anything else which sways them?


It is all of our duty to think for ourselves and hold the "expert's" feet to the fire. 

But that's not what happens.

What happens is that the powers that be have an outcome they desire. And they put the experts that concur with their agenda on TV and they omit the ones that don't. And not only that but they deride and assassinate the dissenting experts' opinions.

God gave you a brain. Use it.

That’s quite some conspiracy theory. It’s all rubbish of course, you’ve joined dots to make your own picture, and are now insulting the intelligence of people who are better informed than you.

The government doesn’t choose which economists get on television, for one thing. Ours is often invited on, goes when he has something interesting to say, and isn’t either told what that view is by anyone or is asked what it is before he appears.

Nobody cares about economists.

But you were just complaining about 5ème being wheeled out to support the conspiracy.

That’s the problem with conspiracists, you change your story 180 degrees when presented with evidence that you were wrong, and just continue with the beliefs.You beliefs, it turns out, are nothing to do with the evidence.

What's 5ème?

Cinquième. C’est un “auto correct”, n’est-ce pas?

Now, have you any I tension if engaging with the subject rather than casting around for typographic errors to avoid doing so?

What's Cinquième?

I find your English difficult enough to understand without your typos and foreign words.

Toutes mes excuses, je parle Anglais et Français à la maison, et mon téléphone me corrige souvent en français. Il est assez facile de rechercher des mots français en ligne, mais ce n'est clairement pas pertinent pour la discussion. Je vais laisser celui-ci pour l'instant.

Google translate is getting very good but that’s a very clumsy translation of “I'll leave this one for now”

5eme is 5th. 

I’ve my spoken French exam for citizenship soon. Clearly I’ve some work to do, but I think I’m there or thereabouts.

Well if you didn’t use google translate and you can speak as well as you write then you’ll be fine! French is my first language but it’s a bit rusty because I don’t get to practise it enough, especially written. I’d probably would have gone for “laisse tomber”. Good luck with your exam!

Thanks. I’m nervous, as like many non-native speakers I struggle with verb forms, and as you’ve seen, have a tendency to translate British phrases literally.

fizio

Prism said:

fizio said:

I can sympathise with the OP as I received a large lump of pension cash (>0.5m) at the start of the year and have been struggling to work out how best to invest it. I ended up investing about 1/3 in regular-ish amounts as and when the markets dropped a bit, another third that I will invest in a similar way through the next 6 months and the last 1/3rd will most likely go into property once the currrent mania calms down. If there is a big adjustment in the market then I will respond accordingly by buying more. 

Was this a lump you were required to take or do you choose to take it with the intention of investing it but are now unsure how to? I think a lot of people might struggle with that initial investment.

I took redundancy & retirement a bit earlier than planned so ended up with the cash sum. I have other stock market investments already - majority global tracker types so am reasonably familiar with investing and markets. A 'nice problem to have' so am very aware of the fortunate position I'm in

Type_45

GeordieGeorge said:

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

graeme16 said:

It is easy to say that you have the better strategy over me because the markets have rebounded and everyone who was stood on the side-lines have been left with there jaws on the floor in a puddle of regret, 

No people with a better strategy than you would have invested as and when the money comes in, rather than sitting in cash waiting for 'the' crash (and then not investing when 'a' crash came).

You picked a strategy in 2015 which backfired. You have to decide if you are going to continue with the same and potentially miss out on the next 5 years of returns or change tack now and potentially see your investment drop (or middle ground as suggested above).

We haven't historically had this level of intervention outside of war time, let alone over a bad round of the flu. 

Well with this level of analytical thinking why do you need us? Your interpretation of figures and graphs is clearly superior to the 'experts'. Where did you do your PhD and postdoctoral research out of interest?  And did you specialise in epidemiology, virology, statistics etc?

You think the "experts" all agree with each other?

If not, which ones are right?


And how do you know that the "experts" you are listening to aren't corrupt and are a pure as the driven snow and have no self interest or pressure put on them or anything else which sways them?


It is all of our duty to think for ourselves and hold the "expert's" feet to the fire. 

But that's not what happens.

What happens is that the powers that be have an outcome they desire. And they put the experts that concur with their agenda on TV and they omit the ones that don't. And not only that but they deride and assassinate the dissenting experts' opinions.

God gave you a brain. Use it.

That’s quite some conspiracy theory. It’s all rubbish of course, you’ve joined dots to make your own picture, and are now insulting the intelligence of people who are better informed than you.

The government doesn’t choose which economists get on television, for one thing. Ours is often invited on, goes when he has something interesting to say, and isn’t either told what that view is by anyone or is asked what it is before he appears.

Nobody cares about economists.

But you were just complaining about 5ème being wheeled out to support the conspiracy.

That’s the problem with conspiracists, you change your story 180 degrees when presented with evidence that you were wrong, and just continue with the beliefs.You beliefs, it turns out, are nothing to do with the evidence.

What's 5ème?

Cinquième. C’est un “auto correct”, n’est-ce pas?

Now, have you any I tension if engaging with the subject rather than casting around for typographic errors to avoid doing so?

What's Cinquième?

I find your English difficult enough to understand without your typos and foreign words.

Toutes mes excuses, je parle Anglais et Français à la maison, et mon téléphone me corrige souvent en français. Il est assez facile de rechercher des mots français en ligne, mais ce n'est clairement pas pertinent pour la discussion. Je vais laisser celui-ci pour l'instant.

Google translate is getting very good but that’s a very clumsy translation of “I'll leave this one for now”

5eme is 5th. 

I’ve my spoken French exam for citizenship soon. Clearly I’ve some work to do, but I think I’m there or thereabouts.

May I ask what your first language is? 

Canuck01

Hello Op - I sympathise with your dilemma. I am at the other end as most of my investing has been the last 14 years, mostly passive and I have done very well and ready to retire now with a fat pot that I never would have expected. I have steadily put a lot into cash the last couple years, all it of pulled just before Covid and dropped some back in at the bottom which kept the overall pot bumping along, due to dumb luck mostly. I liked what Michael Burry in his recent analysis of an impending crash due to passive investing.

All that being said I think long term money that you don't need to touch for 10 years is best in the stock market as massive swings are to be expected from time to time.  Lots of contributors on here have hindsight bias and expect the 10% a year gains to go on and I am not so sure.

GeordieGeorge

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

graeme16 said:

It is easy to say that you have the better strategy over me because the markets have rebounded and everyone who was stood on the side-lines have been left with there jaws on the floor in a puddle of regret, 

No people with a better strategy than you would have invested as and when the money comes in, rather than sitting in cash waiting for 'the' crash (and then not investing when 'a' crash came).

You picked a strategy in 2015 which backfired. You have to decide if you are going to continue with the same and potentially miss out on the next 5 years of returns or change tack now and potentially see your investment drop (or middle ground as suggested above).

We haven't historically had this level of intervention outside of war time, let alone over a bad round of the flu. 

Well with this level of analytical thinking why do you need us? Your interpretation of figures and graphs is clearly superior to the 'experts'. Where did you do your PhD and postdoctoral research out of interest?  And did you specialise in epidemiology, virology, statistics etc?

You think the "experts" all agree with each other?

If not, which ones are right?


And how do you know that the "experts" you are listening to aren't corrupt and are a pure as the driven snow and have no self interest or pressure put on them or anything else which sways them?


It is all of our duty to think for ourselves and hold the "expert's" feet to the fire. 

But that's not what happens.

What happens is that the powers that be have an outcome they desire. And they put the experts that concur with their agenda on TV and they omit the ones that don't. And not only that but they deride and assassinate the dissenting experts' opinions.

God gave you a brain. Use it.

That’s quite some conspiracy theory. It’s all rubbish of course, you’ve joined dots to make your own picture, and are now insulting the intelligence of people who are better informed than you.

The government doesn’t choose which economists get on television, for one thing. Ours is often invited on, goes when he has something interesting to say, and isn’t either told what that view is by anyone or is asked what it is before he appears.

Nobody cares about economists.

But you were just complaining about 5ème being wheeled out to support the conspiracy.

That’s the problem with conspiracists, you change your story 180 degrees when presented with evidence that you were wrong, and just continue with the beliefs.You beliefs, it turns out, are nothing to do with the evidence.

What's 5ème?

Cinquième. C’est un “auto correct”, n’est-ce pas?

Now, have you any I tension if engaging with the subject rather than casting around for typographic errors to avoid doing so?

What's Cinquième?

I find your English difficult enough to understand without your typos and foreign words.

Toutes mes excuses, je parle Anglais et Français à la maison, et mon téléphone me corrige souvent en français. Il est assez facile de rechercher des mots français en ligne, mais ce n'est clairement pas pertinent pour la discussion. Je vais laisser celui-ci pour l'instant.

Google translate is getting very good but that’s a very clumsy translation of “I'll leave this one for now”

5eme is 5th. 

I’ve my spoken French exam for citizenship soon. Clearly I’ve some work to do, but I think I’m there or thereabouts.

May I ask what your first language is? 

Well, when I first arrived down South in Oxford, from my appalling state comp, I spoke quite a distinct dialect of English that a lot of the less well-travelled students could not understand. During my three years there I had to change to very much “standard” British English.

I then moved to Geneva for my doctorate, which started me down the road to a more formal “international English”, something which has continued for over twenty years as I’ve worked and lived in many countries, and have staff from around the world.

Nowadays, my English varies dependent on to whom I’m speaking. It remains formal and extra-precise if I’m in a business meeting with people whose first language is not English, especially if the conversation is technical, but reverts to a more relaxed form when I’m with people who are fluent in it.

Overall it’s what you’d expect of an Oxford-educated English professional, but still with a Northumbrian inflexion when speaking.

Type_45

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

graeme16 said:

It is easy to say that you have the better strategy over me because the markets have rebounded and everyone who was stood on the side-lines have been left with there jaws on the floor in a puddle of regret, 

No people with a better strategy than you would have invested as and when the money comes in, rather than sitting in cash waiting for 'the' crash (and then not investing when 'a' crash came).

You picked a strategy in 2015 which backfired. You have to decide if you are going to continue with the same and potentially miss out on the next 5 years of returns or change tack now and potentially see your investment drop (or middle ground as suggested above).

We haven't historically had this level of intervention outside of war time, let alone over a bad round of the flu. 

Well with this level of analytical thinking why do you need us? Your interpretation of figures and graphs is clearly superior to the 'experts'. Where did you do your PhD and postdoctoral research out of interest?  And did you specialise in epidemiology, virology, statistics etc?

You think the "experts" all agree with each other?

If not, which ones are right?


And how do you know that the "experts" you are listening to aren't corrupt and are a pure as the driven snow and have no self interest or pressure put on them or anything else which sways them?


It is all of our duty to think for ourselves and hold the "expert's" feet to the fire. 

But that's not what happens.

What happens is that the powers that be have an outcome they desire. And they put the experts that concur with their agenda on TV and they omit the ones that don't. And not only that but they deride and assassinate the dissenting experts' opinions.

God gave you a brain. Use it.

That’s quite some conspiracy theory. It’s all rubbish of course, you’ve joined dots to make your own picture, and are now insulting the intelligence of people who are better informed than you.

The government doesn’t choose which economists get on television, for one thing. Ours is often invited on, goes when he has something interesting to say, and isn’t either told what that view is by anyone or is asked what it is before he appears.

Nobody cares about economists.

But you were just complaining about 5ème being wheeled out to support the conspiracy.

That’s the problem with conspiracists, you change your story 180 degrees when presented with evidence that you were wrong, and just continue with the beliefs.You beliefs, it turns out, are nothing to do with the evidence.

What's 5ème?

Cinquième. C’est un “auto correct”, n’est-ce pas?

Now, have you any I tension if engaging with the subject rather than casting around for typographic errors to avoid doing so?

What's Cinquième?

I find your English difficult enough to understand without your typos and foreign words.

Toutes mes excuses, je parle Anglais et Français à la maison, et mon téléphone me corrige souvent en français. Il est assez facile de rechercher des mots français en ligne, mais ce n'est clairement pas pertinent pour la discussion. Je vais laisser celui-ci pour l'instant.

Google translate is getting very good but that’s a very clumsy translation of “I'll leave this one for now”

5eme is 5th. 

I’ve my spoken French exam for citizenship soon. Clearly I’ve some work to do, but I think I’m there or thereabouts.

May I ask what your first language is? 

Well, when I first arrived down South in Oxford, from my appalling state comp, I spoke quite a distinct dialect of English that a lot of the less well-travelled students could not understand. During my three years there I had to change to very much “standard” British English.

I then moved to Geneva for my doctorate, which started me down the road to a more formal “international English”, something which has continued for over twenty years as I’ve worked and lived in many countries, and have staff from around the world.

Nowadays, my English varies dependent on to whom I’m speaking. It remains formal and extra-precise if I’m in a business meeting with people whose first language is not English, especially if the conversation is technical, but reverts to a more relaxed form when I’m with people who are fluent in it.

Overall it’s what you’d expect of an Oxford-educated English professional, but still with a Northumbrian inflexion when speaking.

Impressive if true 👍

older_and_no_wiser

coastline said:

lozzy1965 said:

Now you're both speaking a foreign language!

What's French for "why eye man" Geordie?

Op's not ganna hoy all he's candy in stright away cos shares have gone nutz and yer cannit blame him. Been savin up for donkeys and got hesel a reet old pile of dosh. It's areet all the other postas sayin hoy it all in at once but did they dee that ? A bit in now and then might dee the trick. All this shares larks a reet old carry on. A bit of fundamentalz and the rests just like gannin to the bookies. Yer nivver knar what te dee for the best. Then yer get ower old te spend it when yer cash it in.

Mark Knopfler - Why Aye Man (Official Video) - YouTube

Well said bonny lad. Nice to get some proper canny Geordie advice on here

GeordieGeorge

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

thegentleway said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

GeordieGeorge said:

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

graeme16 said:

It is easy to say that you have the better strategy over me because the markets have rebounded and everyone who was stood on the side-lines have been left with there jaws on the floor in a puddle of regret, 

No people with a better strategy than you would have invested as and when the money comes in, rather than sitting in cash waiting for 'the' crash (and then not investing when 'a' crash came).

You picked a strategy in 2015 which backfired. You have to decide if you are going to continue with the same and potentially miss out on the next 5 years of returns or change tack now and potentially see your investment drop (or middle ground as suggested above).

We haven't historically had this level of intervention outside of war time, let alone over a bad round of the flu. 

Well with this level of analytical thinking why do you need us? Your interpretation of figures and graphs is clearly superior to the 'experts'. Where did you do your PhD and postdoctoral research out of interest?  And did you specialise in epidemiology, virology, statistics etc?

You think the "experts" all agree with each other?

If not, which ones are right?


And how do you know that the "experts" you are listening to aren't corrupt and are a pure as the driven snow and have no self interest or pressure put on them or anything else which sways them?


It is all of our duty to think for ourselves and hold the "expert's" feet to the fire. 

But that's not what happens.

What happens is that the powers that be have an outcome they desire. And they put the experts that concur with their agenda on TV and they omit the ones that don't. And not only that but they deride and assassinate the dissenting experts' opinions.

God gave you a brain. Use it.

That’s quite some conspiracy theory. It’s all rubbish of course, you’ve joined dots to make your own picture, and are now insulting the intelligence of people who are better informed than you.

The government doesn’t choose which economists get on television, for one thing. Ours is often invited on, goes when he has something interesting to say, and isn’t either told what that view is by anyone or is asked what it is before he appears.

Nobody cares about economists.

But you were just complaining about 5ème being wheeled out to support the conspiracy.

That’s the problem with conspiracists, you change your story 180 degrees when presented with evidence that you were wrong, and just continue with the beliefs.You beliefs, it turns out, are nothing to do with the evidence.

What's 5ème?

Cinquième. C’est un “auto correct”, n’est-ce pas?

Now, have you any I tension if engaging with the subject rather than casting around for typographic errors to avoid doing so?

What's Cinquième?

I find your English difficult enough to understand without your typos and foreign words.

Toutes mes excuses, je parle Anglais et Français à la maison, et mon téléphone me corrige souvent en français. Il est assez facile de rechercher des mots français en ligne, mais ce n'est clairement pas pertinent pour la discussion. Je vais laisser celui-ci pour l'instant.

Google translate is getting very good but that’s a very clumsy translation of “I'll leave this one for now”

5eme is 5th. 

I’ve my spoken French exam for citizenship soon. Clearly I’ve some work to do, but I think I’m there or thereabouts.

May I ask what your first language is? 

Well, when I first arrived down South in Oxford, from my appalling state comp, I spoke quite a distinct dialect of English that a lot of the less well-travelled students could not understand. During my three years there I had to change to very much “standard” British English.

I then moved to Geneva for my doctorate, which started me down the road to a more formal “international English”, something which has continued for over twenty years as I’ve worked and lived in many countries, and have staff from around the world.

Nowadays, my English varies dependent on to whom I’m speaking. It remains formal and extra-precise if I’m in a business meeting with people whose first language is not English, especially if the conversation is technical, but reverts to a more relaxed form when I’m with people who are fluent in it.

Overall it’s what you’d expect of an Oxford-educated English professional, but still with a Northumbrian inflexion when speaking.

Impressive if true 👍

Thanks.

My accent does shift quite a lot. Back before the plague, when I used to get the train back up North I could hear my vowels shift just from so many people around me speaking with my old accent.

It’s a little bit sad to know that my two little children will grow up with a totally different accent.

solidpro

Sounds like you'd struggle to buy a dog, cross the road or whether to fill up the car at 75%, 50% or 25% for fear of there not being another open garage or the weight of the fuel having an effect on fuel economy.

In other words, over thinking. If you sit on it, you're safe and lose over time. If you invest you risk it all but could double your money. That's it.

I put everything I can into pension and S&S ISAs and almost all of it goes into stocks because that appears to be what many who I best-guess are much cleverer/learned people than I are doing, and I've at least 20 years to ride out any storms.

If you're trying to time it, there are thousands of people earning billions who timed it a month, a week, a day an  hour before you. Unless you become one of them, it'll never work.