Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Reg_Smeeton

This thread really is like stepping into a parallel universe at times....

Just been totting up my portfolio (80/20ish, 4.5 years duration) and I’m a “whole” 8.2% down from the last peak in December, hitting lows not seen since.... June 2021.

All of my gilts are underwater (naturally) and emerging market shares are just showing a loss over the lifetime of the portfolio, but everything else comfortably remains in the green. 

So from my perspective at least - don’t panic, stay the course, stay diversified

Type_45

Reg_Smeeton said:

This thread really is like stepping into a parallel universe at times....

Just been totting up my portfolio (80/20ish, 4.5 years duration) and I’m a “whole” 8.2% down from the last peak in December, hitting lows not seen since.... June 2021.

All of my gilts are underwater (naturally) and emerging market shares are just showing a loss over the lifetime of the portfolio, but everything else comfortably remains in the green. 

So from my perspective at least - don’t panic, stay the course, stay diversified

What diversification do you have?

Type_45

CPI inflation will be 9% or 10% in September.

Prism

Type_45 said:

CPI inflation will be 9% or 10% in September.

I think that is unlikely. The energy price increases which have been a big factor in pushing up inflation happened last summer. By the time we get to September most of that will have been baked into last years figures. The gas price is cheaper now than it was last October for example. 

It also doesn't seem that huge pay rises are actually happening, and without that the inflation can't really stick. Its not as though people have a ton of free cash to spend anymore. Interest rate rises will likely limit the rise in house prices.

I would think a bit more pain yet but then from August it will start to be a more normal increase.

masonic

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

CPI inflation will be 9% or 10% in September.

I think that is unlikely. The energy price increases which have been a big factor in pushing up inflation happened last summer. By the time we get to September most of that will have been baked into last years figures. The gas price is cheaper now than it was last October for example.

The reduction in wholesale gas price is a seasonal effect though. As soon as people start putting their heating on again, we'll see the current glut quickly dissipate. We don't seem to be doing very much to build up our stored reserves. The new price cap is now known and will have a similar effect as the jump in the index in April, so I would guess October to be the peak for CPI.

sevenhills

Type_45 said:

CPI inflation will be 9% or 10% in September.

RPI inflation is already 11.1%, which is a more accurate measure of inflation for the average person with housing costs.
RPI inflation does not include the really wealthy and CPI does not include rental costs, council tax and general housing costs.

Prism

sevenhills said:

Type_45 said:

CPI inflation will be 9% or 10% in September.

RPI inflation is already 11.1%, which is a more accurate measure of inflation for the average person with housing costs.
RPI inflation does not include the really wealthy and CPI does not include rental costs, council tax and general housing costs.

Surely CPIH is the main measure including housing costs. We don't really use the other two.

Type_45

FTSE 100 down 1.06% to start the day.

masonic

Type_45 said:

FTSE 100 down 1.06% to start the day.

SMT down another 3.7%, so it will be interesting to see where the S&P500 opens. Could enter bear market territory today.

Swipe

You guys are actually taking pleasure in this?