Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

coastline

Type_45 said:

Today's CPI means we'll get more aggressive rate rises, which will kill the economy, which will lead to fiscal loosening, which will lead to a melt up, which will lead to the 80% crash.

There might not be a pause in September ? So 0.5% a month for now but 3.5% is still the target on the rates. As I've just posted we aren't far away. We can only see.
The melt up might be on the cards if the cycles are to be believed ? This of course could last years yet.? 80% crash doesn't really fit from even 5000 on the SP 500 that would take it to 1000 which is back to 1995 levels. Stretching it a bit there.

FS4oIifUcAUAxH4 (900×622) (twimg.com)

Secular vs. Cyclical Markets (2022) - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)

Even WB was at it in 1999.

Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market The most celebrated of investors says stocks can't possibly meet the public's expectations. As for the Internet? He notes how few people got rich from two other transforming industries, auto and aviation. - November 22, 1999 (cnn.com)

Alistair31

Some perspective 

Type_45

TINA is over.

"There Is No Alternative" to investing in equities and bonds.


Investors will soon realise that times have changed.

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

TINA is over.

"There Is No Alternative" to investing in equities and bonds.


Investors will soon realise that times have changed.

Another day another reposted soundbite from Twitter 

Zola.

So......the red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line.  

masonic

Zola. said:

So......the red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line.  

Interesting. With the US national debt at about $28,000bn, about two thirds of the debt is corporate/private debt, the sort that could leave the lender facing a default if the borrower cannot pay it. Some of it will be secured on property, but not a good time to be holding it as an investor as interest rates make rolling it over prohibitively expensive.

Type_45

Shanghai has gone into another lockdown. And China's economic woes are going to hit the West.

masonic

Type_45 said:

Shanghai has gone into another lockdown. And China's economic woes are going to hit the West.

They only came out of lockdown a couple of weeks ago. This weekend's exercise is for mass testing. I haven't seen anything relating to what they intend to do next week.

Reg_Smeeton

This thread really is like stepping into a parallel universe at times....

Just been totting up my portfolio (80/20ish, 4.5 years duration) and I’m a “whole” 8.2% down from the last peak in December, hitting lows not seen since.... June 2021.

All of my gilts are underwater (naturally) and emerging market shares are just showing a loss over the lifetime of the portfolio, but everything else comfortably remains in the green. 

So from my perspective at least - don’t panic, stay the course, stay diversified

Type_45

Reg_Smeeton said:

This thread really is like stepping into a parallel universe at times....

Just been totting up my portfolio (80/20ish, 4.5 years duration) and I’m a “whole” 8.2% down from the last peak in December, hitting lows not seen since.... June 2021.

All of my gilts are underwater (naturally) and emerging market shares are just showing a loss over the lifetime of the portfolio, but everything else comfortably remains in the green. 

So from my perspective at least - don’t panic, stay the course, stay diversified

What diversification do you have?