What will happen to rural (off gas) heating options? What should I go for??

Reed_Richards

So what have you got to feel good about, @Mickey666?

Mickey666

Depends on timescale I suppose.

Personally, I'm happy, financially secure, debt-free, early-retired and (lockdowns permitting) am free to do pretty much whatever I choose.  I freely acknowledge that I was born at an amazing time in human history and into a basically free country.  Pure luck, so nothing to be particularly proud about, but amazing nevertheless.

But I don't feel happy that the world is heading in the right direction because humans have become the pest species of the planet and are busy wrecking it for all other species in pursuit of our own selfish ends of unsustainable continuous economic growth.  It is inevitably going to end in a disaster of some sort.  My only consolation is that I won't be around to have to endure it.

But if you feel good about getting an ASHP, then good for you.  We all need a little happiness in our lives, even if it based on self-delusion.

Reed_Richards

Mickey666 said:

But if you feel good about getting an ASHP, then good for you....  

Well that seemed like a kindly statement...

Mickey666 said:

...We all need a little happiness in our lives, even if it based on self-delusion.

But then the sting in the tail about "self-delusion" makes me think you are not being entirely sincere.  

Mickey666

Entirely sincere on a personal level.  Much personal happiness is based on some form of self-delusion, which is fine by me.

It's when the delusion is converted into some form of message that I begin to worry, because it indicates that people are not focusing on the ultimate problams that will wreck our environment and therefore our quality of life. 

Or perhaps they just don't care about things like biodiversity and the natural environment?   After all, very few people actually experience the natural environment anyway, so perhaps it's all a bit overrated?  We've got enough David Attenborough documentaries to stream onto our huge-screen TVs while tucking into a just-delivered pizza, so who needs the 'natural world' anyway?

shinytop

lohr500 said:

Aside from the infrastructure issues, my biggest concern with a push to electric vehicles and electric heating is the future price of the electricity. Once the alternatives are removed, I can see the electricity industry pushing up pricing as customers have nowhere else to go. I am still to be convinced with today's consumer electricity and kerosene prices that an ASHP is more cost effective over its likely lifespan than a well set up condensing oil boiler.  
I guess there is also a danger that the Govt slap a large tax on heating oil in the future to level up any pricing differential and to "encourage" customers to migrate to electrical heating.

Oil heating is largely irrelevant; it's a tiny proportion of the total in the UK.  It's also broadly similar in price to run as an ASHP (might be more, might be less) so persuading people to change wo't be that hard. Diesel cars are great but nobody really wants them now.  The big issue is replacing gas heating with renewable energy. 

lohr500

Well we have oil heating and I wasn't persuaded that an ASHP would be broadly similar in price to run over the life expectancy of the system, taking into account the capital costs, grants and ongoing running costs. The real difficulty in doing comparisons is that it seems most ASHP installations involve changing the radiators, fitting a large heat store and in some cases adding extra insulation to the property.  If those same changes were made to an oil based system, then presumably that system would also be more efficient. 
Is it not the case that with a kWh of energy from oil currently costing around £0.044 (assuming a 90% efficient modern boiler), an ASHP (with an assumed 2.5 real life COP) would need to run on electricity at an average price of £0.11 per unit to produce the same kWh of energy at the same cost? There aren't many tariffs out there with a £0.11 unit price on electricity right now. Add to that the extra cost of the ASHP unit and I'm not convinced it is broadly similar to run. The RHI payments in most cases seem to just about pay for the installation costs, not subsidise the running.
Until the aviation industry can move away from using kerosene as the main engine fuel (and I don't see that happening any time soon), there is going to be a plentiful supply of kerosene for domestic oil boilers. And presumably as the demand for diesel and petrol reduce, the oil producers are going to want to keep refining and selling whatever they can.

Going green on home heating would be a no brainer if there was a real cost benefit to the consumer in doing so. Right now, I fear many householders are lining the pockets of a number of "Heat Pump" installation consultancies and fitters in the misguided belief that they will save money. Give it a few years and I expect a Watchdog special on the widespread mis-selling of ASHP systems!! 

Just my own opinion!

Reed_Richards

I will have 6 months of ASHP usage data in a few days time and will publish this here: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6240076/i-bought-a-heat-pump#latest
I'll do my best to make a comparison with my best data on oil usage, although we had a particularly cold and prolonged winter this year so a straight like-for-like comparison will favour oil.

I got quotes from three companies.  Two of these told me I would make savings compared to my oil boiler and one told me my running cost would be similar.  I went with the honest company and have been very pleased with them.  I'm sure you are right that some ASHPs are being mis-sold but you could do a lot worse, electric panel heaters that "heat the person, not the air" for example.  

shinytop

lohr500 said:

Well we have oil heating and I wasn't persuaded that an ASHP would be broadly similar in price to run over the life expectancy of the system, taking into account the capital costs, grants and ongoing running costs. The real difficulty in doing comparisons is that it seems most ASHP installations involve changing the radiators, fitting a large heat store and in some cases adding extra insulation to the property.  If those same changes were made to an oil based system, then presumably that system would also be more efficient. 
Is it not the case that with a kWh of energy from oil currently costing around £0.044 (assuming a 90% efficient modern boiler), an ASHP (with an assumed 2.5 real life COP) would need to run on electricity at an average price of £0.11 per unit to produce the same kWh of energy at the same cost? There aren't many tariffs out there with a £0.11 unit price on electricity right now. Add to that the extra cost of the ASHP unit and I'm not convinced it is broadly similar to run. The RHI payments in most cases seem to just about pay for the installation costs, not subsidise the running.
Until the aviation industry can move away from using kerosene as the main engine fuel (and I don't see that happening any time soon), there is going to be a plentiful supply of kerosene for domestic oil boilers. And presumably as the demand for diesel and petrol reduce, the oil producers are going to want to keep refining and selling whatever they can.

Going green on home heating would be a no brainer if there was a real cost benefit to the consumer in doing so. Right now, I fear many householders are lining the pockets of a number of "Heat Pump" installation consultancies and fitters in the misguided belief that they will save money. Give it a few years and I expect a Watchdog special on the widespread mis-selling of ASHP systems!! 

Just my own opinion!

@lohr500, I was very careful to say "run" as I know how expensive ASHPs and all the other changes required are (I just paid for them!).  But your numbers suggest that even at 2.5 SCOP, it's quite a close comparison and at 3.0, ASHPs would start to make financial sense.  Look at PV 10-15 years ago; an expensive, niche indulgence that only made financial sense because of very generous subsidies.  Now it's getting near to being viable on its own.  I would expect ASHPs and home batteries to go the same way. I'm no ASHP evengelist though; if gas were available to me I'd have it and without RHI I'd seriously think about having an oil system.

The other thing to consider is that having more expensive heating that is badly affected by poor insulation, draughts and high delta-Ts will push people into using less energy by making their homes more heat-efficient and putting up with cooler houses and shorter showers.  It's like the old Americal gas-guzzlers; who cared if they did 15 mpg when gas was 50c a gallon?  

Interesting times ...

matelodave

Reed_Richards said:

I will have 6 months of ASHP usage data in a few days time and will publish this here: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6240076/i-bought-a-heat-pump#latest
I'll do my best to make a comparison with my best data on oil usage, although we had a particularly cold and prolonged winter this year so a straight like-for-like comparison will favour oil.

I got quotes from three companies.  Two of these told me I would make savings compared to my oil boiler and one told me my running cost would be similar.  I went with the honest company and have been very pleased with them.  I'm sure you are right that some ASHPs are being mis-sold but you could do a lot worse, electric panel heaters that "heat the person, not the air" for example.  

I wait with keen anticipation - we installed our heatpump before we'd had any previous experience of the existing storgage heating but I've been pleased with the costs and performance which have been on par with out previous place. So it will be good to get someone elses real life experience, especially someone who knows how it works and how to use it rather than lots of hearsay or whinging

Reed_Richards

Done now: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6240076/i-bought-a-heat-pump#latest
I do find the hearsay about heat pumps a bit irritating.  I and @matelodave and @shinytop all have a heat pump and all of us seem to visit the forum quite frequently so there is ample opportunity to ask a user.