Likelihood of a good bargain from a private many-car seller

macman

It's much worse now because it's much easier. Social media gives the cowboys much easier access to a much broader potential market. In the days before mobile phones, the only way a fake 'private' seller could advertise was by a landline number in the local classified ads. Multiple ads with the same number made it obvious if they were traders. Even with mobiles and multiple numbers available, you could still determine their status just by ringing and saying you were interested in 'the car'.

Now, with so many channels open (Facebook Marketplace, Gumtree, eBay and others), it's simple to use multiple and changeable ID's.

alihd

noclaf said:

Op I would say you are over thinking a lot of this.
There is an element luck involved at the lower budget end of the used car market, you could easily get a lemon whether you buy from a genuine private seller or a fake private seller or a garage. I'm not sure any deep statistical analysis is really needed here.

You are right. What I was looking for is to learn the risk factors of each option and do the math. I admit that, as you suggested, there is not enough data to have a solid risk analysis, but thanks to the comments by you and others, I got very useful clues. The rest is to take chances. 

Another takeaway for me is:

1. Typical dealers are not reliable and buying from them doesn't mean I can put my mind in rest; Unless I buy a car from manufacturer-approved dealers or something like CarGiant, who only sell almost-new cars that are £8K+
2. Most private sellers are not genuinely private sellers. They are even worse than the typical dealers. Sadly, these two groups of sellers retain the majority of the older used cars that I'm interested in.
3. Genuine private sellers are rare. I have been waiting for a good automatic VW up/Citigo/Mii and only a couple of cars were advertised by those sellers in the past few months.

So I need to either pay a lot to buy an almost-new car from factory-approved dealers and put the mind in rest;
OR wait to hunt a good bargain from a private seller;
OR just take the bloody risk and buy from a typical dealer.

Herzlos

alihd said:

Another takeaway for me is:

1. Typical dealers are not reliable and buying from them doesn't mean I can put my mind in rest; Unless I buy a car from manufacturer-approved dealers or something like CarGiant, who only sell almost-new cars that are £8K+
2. Most private sellers are not genuinely private sellers. They are even worse than the typical dealers. Sadly, these two groups of sellers retain the majority of the older used cars that I'm interested in.
3. Genuine private sellers are rare. I have been waiting for a good VW up/Citigo/Mii and only a couple of cars were advertised by those sellers in the past few months.

So I need to either pay a lot to buy an almost-new car from factory-approved dealers and put the mind in rest;
OR wait to hunt a good bargain from a private seller;
OR just take the bloody risk and buy from a typical dealer.

All pretty wrong I'm afraid.
1. Typical dealers are pretty decent, though any car carries some risk. The big car supermarkets often sell ex-rental cars at 6-12 months old. I've bought older cars from dealers before and they've been fine, admittedly they have usually been in the £5-8k bracket.
Do your research on the dealer - is it a franchised dealer or a big brand that's been there for years? It's probably safer than a grubby side street place that keeps changing name.
2/3. I've no idea what the ratio of private seller to fake pretend seller is, though with places like webuyanycar.com a lot of people don't bother selling cars privately now so it's probably grown.

Just apply some common sense: Does the sellers story make sense? Does the car seem in decent condition? Does the car have paperwork? Does the address match the documents? Does the dealership seem reputable?
If you're unsure about the condition of the car, ask if you can get it inspected by the AA or a local garage, and if they refuse then look for something else. Most garages will quite happily give a car an MOT style once over for the MOT rate.

AdrianC

alihd said:
Genuine private sellers are rare. I have been waiting for a good VW up/Citigo/Mii and only a couple of cars were advertised by those sellers in the past few months.

Think about it from the PoV of a perfectly normal car user.

They buy a car - new or used - from a garage.

What do they do with the old one? Do they keep it, have the hassle of insurance and tax and parking, in order to have the hassle of dealing with mouth-breathing time-wasting buyers, and all for the potential benefit of not getting as much as they hoped for it?

Or do they just PX it with the garage they bought the replacement off?

Exactly.
So what does that garage do with it? They either tidy it and retail it themselves - if it's the kind of thing they'd normally deal with, which isn't usual, because most people upgrade in value... or they shove it in the local auction.

So do you go to the auction to buy, same as the driveway trader does? No, because they have an account with the auction house, so pay much lower fees and have much less hassle than you would as a one-off buyer. And because you're a pickier buyer. You might only have one lot you're interested in at a typical auction. They might be happy with any one or two of a dozen.

alihd

AdrianC said:

So what does that garage do with it? They either tidy it and retail it themselves - if it's the kind of thing they'd normally deal with, which isn't usual, because most people upgrade in value... or they shove it in the local auction.

So do you go to the auction to buy, same as the driveway trader does? No, because they have an account with the auction house, so pay much lower fees and have much less hassle than you would as a one-off buyer. And because you're a pickier buyer. You might only have one lot you're interested in at a typical auction. They might be happy with any one or two of a dozen.

I got your point, except this part. Let me rephrase what you said:
- Most P/Xed cars are bad (not good enough for the dealer to re-sell).
- Dealers sell the bad cars in auctions
- But based on the discussion on this forum, the auctioneers sell to dealers only (Strictly mentioned in their T&C)
Then where do those bad cars end up? (so that I avoid)

Tokmon

alihd said:

AdrianC said:

So what does that garage do with it? They either tidy it and retail it themselves - if it's the kind of thing they'd normally deal with, which isn't usual, because most people upgrade in value... or they shove it in the local auction.

So do you go to the auction to buy, same as the driveway trader does? No, because they have an account with the auction house, so pay much lower fees and have much less hassle than you would as a one-off buyer. And because you're a pickier buyer. You might only have one lot you're interested in at a typical auction. They might be happy with any one or two of a dozen.

I got your point, except this part. Let me rephrase what you said:
- Most P/Xed cars are bad (not good enough for the dealer to re-sell).
- Dealers sell the bad cars in auctions
- But based on the discussion on this forum, the auctioneers sell to dealers only (Strictly mentioned in their T&C)
Then where do those bad cars end up? (so that I avoid)

Dealers don't sell cars at auction just because they are bad, lots of dealers sell cars at auction just because they are older than other cars they sell or are a different make/model to what they want to sell. 
I know a couple dealers who buy all their cars from auction and P/X and they aren't bad cars. Yes they may have issues but they fix them up in their own workshops and make a profit the majority of the time even after offering a 3 month warranty.

If your mechanically minded then you can usually find a bargain car thoroughly check it over and fix any issues and still be quids in, if your not mechanically minded then buy from a dealer with a good reputation and offering a good warranty then you won't need to worry.

Also not all auctions are open to dealers only, a car auction used to run near me that was open to anyone to buy from and my friends first car was from there and it was actually quite decent car for a bargain price (but he knew what he was doing mechanically).

williamgriffin

alihd said:

AdrianC said:

So what does that garage do with it? They either tidy it and retail it themselves - if it's the kind of thing they'd normally deal with, which isn't usual, because most people upgrade in value... or they shove it in the local auction.

So do you go to the auction to buy, same as the driveway trader does? No, because they have an account with the auction house, so pay much lower fees and have much less hassle than you would as a one-off buyer. And because you're a pickier buyer. You might only have one lot you're interested in at a typical auction. They might be happy with any one or two of a dozen.

I got your point, except this part. Let me rephrase what you said:
- Most P/Xed cars are bad (not good enough for the dealer to re-sell).
- Dealers sell the bad cars in auctions
- But based on the discussion on this forum, the auctioneers sell to dealers only (Strictly mentioned in their T&C)
Then where do those bad cars end up? (so that I avoid)

Lower down the chain, backstreet or driveway traders. 

Ectophile

They end up at dealers who pretend to be private sellers, and dodgy back street dealers who change names every few months.

Last time I bought a used car from a dealer, I went on the Companies House web site to check that the company was long established, and up to date with its accounts.

parking_question_chap

Block of flats in Erith, photos taken whilst the car is blocking the road, bottom end of the market

Rather you than me.

AdrianC

alihd said:

AdrianC said:

So what does that garage do with it? They either tidy it and retail it themselves - if it's the kind of thing they'd normally deal with, which isn't usual, because most people upgrade in value... or they shove it in the local auction.

So do you go to the auction to buy, same as the driveway trader does? No, because they have an account with the auction house, so pay much lower fees and have much less hassle than you would as a one-off buyer. And because you're a pickier buyer. You might only have one lot you're interested in at a typical auction. They might be happy with any one or two of a dozen.

I got your point, except this part. Let me rephrase what you said:
- Most P/Xed cars are bad (not good enough for the dealer to re-sell).
- Dealers sell the bad cars in auctions
- But based on the discussion on this forum, the auctioneers sell to dealers only (Strictly mentioned in their T&C)
Then where do those bad cars end up? (so that I avoid)

Not all dealers are the same.

Go to any forecourt, and you'll find most stock is very similar.
Perhaps it's a franchise dealer, with a used stock 1-3yo. They get a 6yo car in.
Perhaps it's a bit further down the road and food-chain, with most stock 3-6yo. They get a 10yo car in.

Not all PXed cars are bad.
Perhaps they just fancy a change after three years of ownership.
Perhaps they've had a sprog and need more space.
Perhaps their sprogs have left home and they don't need as much space.
Perhaps they'd be quite happy keeping their Euro5 diesel, but drive into the circulars frequently.

Remember, you're looking at 12yo cars that have probably had 5-6 owners. Why would it have been "bad" each of those times, yet still be on the road now?