Argument with my husband - Who is in the wrong here?

princeofpounds

MalMonroe said:

People in the UK just don't seem to have come to terms with the fact that there is a killer disease lurking around every corner. Some folk are even calling it a hoax. Boris Johnson is trying to placate we the public so he can be a popular PM, when what he needs to do is to be firm and lock us all down. 

Cranks aside, that's partially because this 'killer disease' is not that much of a killer. The risk to people without advanced age or co-morbidities is very very low. Overall, it's about as bad as three years of flu season, and we don't freak out every year about flu being a 'killer disease'. 

Let's look at some data. Probably the best way to look at the real impact of Covid for these purposes is not deaths but excess deaths - how many more people are dying than would normally be expected?

The second chart in the link below shows that since the start of the pandemic there have been 426k deaths, of which 67k were in excess of what might normally be expected. That's about 0.1% of the population. 

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html

Some further points are relevant (one in particular related to this discussion):

- There is further data on excess deaths by age groups at the link. There is no evidence that Covid has any measurable net effect on people under 45. In fact less children died this year than would be expected - possibly due to things like lower traffic collisions, although at these small levels of deviation it could just be statistical noise. This is really important in the context of this discussion - the statements that schools are safe (at least for pupils) aren't coming from nowhere, nor is it just politics. Stating that schools aren't safe is arguably hysterical - the only material health issues in schools are vulnerable teachers and schools as a source of transmission.

- The pandemic is of course ongoing, so this is a 'so far' analysis. However, if you look at the chart, it's interesting to see that almost all the cumulative excess deaths were accumulated in the peak of the first wave. Since then, the line followed the expected trend and has only recently started to move upward slightly again. So Covid was only actually killing more people than you would expect in March/April, and had no measurable net further impact from May up until really the last few weeks.

- A significant proportion of deaths from Covid are just 'brought forward' rather than killing people who would otherwise live healthy long lives afterwards. So a true assessment of impact would have to include a significant period after Covid, where excess mortality will likely be lower than expected (as it was in summer last year, but the effect after a vaccination would likely be stronger).

- New strains could of course change the situation.

- Link for data behind my statement comparing Covid to three flu seasons: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

Why am I bothering to discuss all this? Because I think it's important to view things in the context of actual data, something which unfortunately the media and the various lobby groups (unions, the NHS etc.) don't make a habit of doing. The government is more concerned with managing public behaviour - given the effect on outcomes that it produces - than it is about really debating evidence. So we end up in camps of 'lock us all down' vs. 'Covid is a hoax' or whatever.

Debate about lock-downs as an effective (and cost-effective!) tool to control the disease is very valid - certainly the experience of Sweden (amongst other countries) during the first wave suggested that more relaxed form of restrictions would have produced similar results for much less social cost. We do not smash our economy every year to deal with flu, and arguably we should not have done so with Covid. The data from the second wave so far is arguably more severe in terms of policy implications, given a) the new strains with apparently higher transmissibility and b) the promise that vaccines hold for an end-point to transmission (because there is little point locking down to achieve anything except managing hospital capacity - remember smoothing the curve?! - or bridging to a vaccine).

ontheroad1970

Are we seriously getting to a point where couples rather than discussing it between themselves are coming on to an internet messaging board and soliciting the opinions of total strangers. What will you do?  "Well so and so from MSE forum said that we should do this or that".  

unforeseen

Hubby's comment, to me, sounds like the response of somebody whose opinion has been ignored so many times that anything he says that doesn't agree with the wife is ignored. He is therefore saying (paraphrase) 'do what you want, you usually do' 

Adriana1985

Thanks for the reply all. Maybe cryptic was the wrong word to use. For me, a nice straightforward answer would go a long way. Another thing I forgot to mention is that he filled out the forms for our youngest one to go to nursery just a couple months ago so me asking again was just a way of reaffirming his thoughts on this as on one hand I can take his comment has is doesn't want to do it at all but at the same time he filled out the forms. 

If he said "I don't want my child going to nursery during the pandemic but you make the decision", I would have taken his opinion with mine and probably just left her out of nursery.

If he said something along the lines of; "I am not comfortable her going but would somewhat okay with her going one day a week so she settles in" then I may take her to nursery as I'll get the impression that, though not comfortable, he's not completely against it. 

His initial answer, though similar to the above, came across more him dumping it on me and I found it hard to gauge is actual feelings on it. 

• To answer some other questions here, both of us work from home.
• Nursery or some form of childcare was always going to happen as we need the money
• I came up with the idea to speak through the finances of me going back to work

sheramber

If he said "I don't want my child going to nursery during the pandemic but you make the decision", I would have taken his opinion with mine and probably just left her out of nursery.
So, in the end you are making the decision, which his reply infers.

Morrigan_2020

sheramber said:

If he said "I don't want my child going to nursery during the pandemic but you make the decision", I would have taken his opinion with mine and probably just left her out of nursery.
So, in the end you are making the decision, which his reply infers.

In that scenario he just told her to make the decision!  Maybe if he'd said 'I don't want to put her in nursery so I will reduce my working hours to take care of her rather than doing so' she'd have happily gone along with that?

sheramber

Morrigan_2020 said:

sheramber said:

If he said "I don't want my child going to nursery during the pandemic but you make the decision", I would have taken his opinion with mine and probably just left her out of nursery.
So, in the end you are making the decision, which his reply infers.

In that scenario he just told her to make the decision!  Maybe if he'd said 'I don't want to put her in nursery so I will reduce my working hours to take care of her rather than doing so' she'd have happily gone along with that?

But a family member is going to look after her. The point of nursery was to get her used to other children so him taking care of her isn't relevant.

DevilsAdvocate1

Adriana1985 said:

If he said "I don't want my child going to nursery during the pandemic but you make the decision", I would have taken his

That's just sematics though and we can't all word things the same way.  I think his repsonse was pretty clear.  Also, I don't think they have to go to nursery and socialise at such a young age.  Many (most?) don't go at such a young age and by the time they grow up you really can't tell.  My youngest is the most confident and social of my three children and he didn't go to nursery until he was nearly 4 (the year before reception) and he only went 3 mornings a week initially which went down to 2 as I decided to make the most of my time with him before he started reception.