Bitcoin

Retireby40

planteria said:

the thing that surprises me with these threads is that some contributors consistently demonstrate their real passion to argue that bitcoin is a bad place for anyone to put their money, whilst also commiting to fail to understand it.
the institutions and corporates that are investing in bitcoin are in the public domain, the graphs are clear and easily accesible.
fwiw i'm still hanging on to see if there's a significant drop, to back below £20k, so that i can buy some more.

I'm not arguing its bad or good. I'm just saying I don't understand why all the investors decided Christmas time is the best time. 2018 was the same now 2020. Is there some reason why? It stays relatively regular for crypto all year or over 2 years and at Christmas again boom.

Its hard to understand something that stays level or relatively level then shoots up in a 4 week period.

Look at Stellar crypto. Up 52% in 1 day. 

Every single crypo on coinbase has increased by huge amounts. Are these millionaire investors investing in them too?

Qubit

Retireby40 said:

Any other reasons why bitcoin etc peaks in December/January. In 2018 it was exactly the same. In the space of 3/4 weeks it goes from relatively nothing to the sky. Then within 4-6 weeks drops like mad in Feb and March 

Exactly the same thing has happened. 3-4 week period exactly same time as a few years ago jumps like mad this Christmas and January.

The time when arguably people have less money and more financial commitments. 

I find it incredibly hard to believe that this Christmas unlike 2019 people decided oh let's throw the kids Christmas money at crypto.

Currently most of the Bitcoin buying recently has been institutional, retail is yet to appear in force.  Bitcoin has not finished this cycle, although it is currently overbought. 

Generally speaking it follows approximately 4 year cycles and looks likely to do the same again.  This is basically driven by the halving schedule which reduces the block reward every 4 years. (We had one 6 months ago).   Usually a supply squeeze follows the halving and resulting price increase.

Retireby40

Qubit said:

Retireby40 said:

Any other reasons why bitcoin etc peaks in December/January. In 2018 it was exactly the same. In the space of 3/4 weeks it goes from relatively nothing to the sky. Then within 4-6 weeks drops like mad in Feb and March 

Exactly the same thing has happened. 3-4 week period exactly same time as a few years ago jumps like mad this Christmas and January.

The time when arguably people have less money and more financial commitments. 

I find it incredibly hard to believe that this Christmas unlike 2019 people decided oh let's throw the kids Christmas money at crypto.

Currently most of the Bitcoin buying recently has been institutional, retail is yet to appear in force.  Bitcoin has not finished this cycle, although it is currently overbought. 

Generally speaking it follows approximately 4 year cycles and looks likely to do the same again.  This is basically driven by the halving schedule which reduces the block reward every 4 years. (We had one 6 months ago).   Usually a supply squeeze follows the halving and resulting price increase.

Thanks for the explanation.
Who then is buying all these 20p cryptos normal Joe Blogs? I mean I get Bitcoin and Ethereum rising they are the household names of crytpo. But looking down a long list of names of what could be anything and every single one is rising anywhere between 5-50%. 

I haven't a clue about crytpo but I'm trying to understand why it is going mental at the minute when for so long (2 years) it was moderately up and down.

People are buying it and its rising every single day without fail but I know the minute I throw 2000-3000k into something those 20-30% rises will suddenly stop. 

I get FOMO but surely that last longer than 1-2 months. Surely the people who don't have money today to buy will try to buy in Feb, March or April for the same reasons.

Qubit

20p crypto, may well be mostly retail (avg Joe) chasing the 'next Bitcoin', takes a lot less to move the price of a relatively low market cap sh*tcoin.   Most if not all will eventually go to zero or near zero.  
  
As for volatility of Bitcoin, yes it is, but doesn't bother me as I have no intention of selling it.  At this point it is now very unlikely we will ever see sub 10k dollar Bitcoin again.  However it is still early.   

Understanding what Bitcoin is takes a lot of time and research.  I would encourage anyone interested to research it as much as possible before even considering buying any and as always only what you would be willing to lose.  I'm not here to tell anyone what to do.  I've spent the last 3 years learning.   Unfortunately this is not the best place to learn about it as it is poorly understood here.    Here is one starting point for anyone interested: https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/getting-started.html

Retireby40

Qubit said:

20p crypto, may well be mostly retail (avg Joe) chasing the 'next Bitcoin', takes a lot less to move the price of a relatively low market cap sh*tcoin.   Most if not all will eventually go to zero or near zero.  
  
As for volatility of Bitcoin, yes it is, but doesn't bother me as I have no intention of selling it.  At this point it is now very unlikely we will ever see sub 10k dollar Bitcoin again.  However it is still early.   

Understanding what Bitcoin is takes a lot of time and research.  I would encourage anyone interested to research it as much as possible before even considering buying any and as always only what you would be willing to lose.  I'm not here to tell anyone what to do.  I've spent the last 3 years learning.   Unfortunately this is not the best place to learn about it as it is poorly understood here.    Here is one starting point for anyone interested: https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/getting-started.html

If your prediction about it not dropping below 10k is true its something that the working class have missed the boat on. Throwing your couple of hundreds at it to maybe double your money ain't worth the hassle.

I held some for 3 years and made the mistake of cashing out when I had made my money back. To be honest I've only lost (not gained) about £500 but that's life. 

Unfortunately these wonderful investment opportunities take of so quick with no warning that by the time you are interested you've missed the boat.

At 25k makes no sense to me to buy and will have to accept that.

onthebench

Retireby40 said:

If your prediction about it not dropping below 10k is true its something that the working class have missed the boat on. Throwing your couple of hundreds at it to maybe double your money ain't worth the hassle.

I held some for 3 years and made the mistake of cashing out when I had made my money back. To be honest I've only lost (not gained) about £500 but that's life. 

Unfortunately these wonderful investment opportunities take of so quick with no warning that by the time you are interested you've missed the boat.

At 25k makes no sense to me to buy and will have to accept that.

Not necessarily true, if any of the more optimistic predictions of the price rising to six figures come true.
Look at bitcoin forums from years gone by. When the price hit $100 people thought they had missed the boat. Same when it hit $1,000, same when it hit $10,000, same when it hit $20,000 in December.
I first came across Bitcoin back in 2010-2011 when you could still mine it easily yourself. I didn't, and I figured I had missed the boat. I didn't get round to buying any until last year when the price was £9,000, and I still thought I had probably missed the boat. Well, it's now trebled in three months.
Is it going to crash again? Quite possibly, but the cycle is likely to continue, and as long as you don't invest so much that you will be tempted to sell at a loss if it halves in value (or worse) then it's worth putting some money in as the potential upside is still very large IMHO.

onomatopoeia99

Retireby40 said:

At 25k makes no sense to me to buy and will have to accept that.

£29k / $39k as of right now.  Don't ask me why it's going ballistic at the moment.  It tends to be cyclical so I'm sure it will go back down in time, but all the experts talking about how people that bought at $18,000 three years ago had been duped into a ponzi scheme, and there were plenty of those repeating that on here, will be needing a damp cloth to clean the egg from their faces.  

Retireby40

onthebench said:

Retireby40 said:

If your prediction about it not dropping below 10k is true its something that the working class have missed the boat on. Throwing your couple of hundreds at it to maybe double your money ain't worth the hassle.

I held some for 3 years and made the mistake of cashing out when I had made my money back. To be honest I've only lost (not gained) about £500 but that's life. 

Unfortunately these wonderful investment opportunities take of so quick with no warning that by the time you are interested you've missed the boat.

At 25k makes no sense to me to buy and will have to accept that.

Not necessarily true, if any of the more optimistic predictions of the price rising to six figures come true.
Look at bitcoin forums from years gone by. When the price hit $100 people thought they had missed the boat. Same when it hit $1,000, same when it hit $10,000, same when it hit $20,000 in December.
I first came across Bitcoin back in 2010-2011 when you could still mine it easily yourself. I didn't, and I figured I had missed the boat. I didn't get round to buying any until last year when the price was £9,000, and I still thought I had probably missed the boat. Well, it's now trebled in three months.
Is it going to crash again? Quite possibly, but the cycle is likely to continue, and as long as you don't invest so much that you will be tempted to sell at a loss if it halves in value (or worse) then it's worth putting some money in as the potential upside is still very large IMHO.

Yeah you're probably right its just hard to buy into something at 29k when so many people bought in at 4/5/6k when bitcoin was wellknown. Obviously nobody knew it would rise like it has done and nobody really knows why to a degree. Why all of a sudden in December 2020 did everyone decide let's buy as many cryptos as possible?

I don't understand it enough so won't be investing and there isn't value for me. Maybe if it drops again to 10k or so I may go for it.

barnstar2077

planteria said:

the thing that surprises me with these threads is that some contributors consistently demonstrate their real passion to argue that bitcoin is a bad place for anyone to put their money, whilst also commiting to fail to understand it.
the institutions and corporates that are investing in bitcoin are in the public domain, the graphs are clear and easily accesible.
fwiw i'm still hanging on to see if there's a significant drop, to back below £20k, so that i can buy some more.

To be fair, can you explain why it is more than just a number, with no intrinsic value, that goes up and down?  I'm no idyat, but it baffles me. 

[Deleted User]

Retireby40 said:

I don't understand it enough so won't be investing and there isn't value for me. Maybe if it drops again to 10k or so I may go for it.

I've heard that so many times already. First time around 2013 when Bitcoin reached $1000 for the first time. Many people I know  didn't bought it then, "it's too expensive, I've missed the boat!" (I'm sure they regret it today.) Few years later, Bitcoin fall back to $100. They didn't bought it, because it fall so much it must be dead! (I'm sure they regret it today.)

Now, you are here, 7 years later, saying that it's "too expensive" to buy. You don't yet realize how funny that will sound with Bitcoin price of £500k.

And you are not the only one to make that mistake: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/imf-head-christine-lagarde-says-bitcoin-is-too-expensive-for-me-at-the-moment-2017-10

IMF's Christine Lagarde said that in October 2017, at price around $4400, just before price took off to all time highs ($20k) in 2018. (I'm sure she and the likes of her regret it today.)

But when it will eventually crash, let's say to your level of £10k, it will be in circumstances which will scare people, as usual - well planned scare tactics, big exchange hacks, hostile government regulation, often all at once, all this will make price to crash and you will not buy back because of fear - just like you didn't bought the dip in March 2020.