BITCOIN

Frequentlyhere

silvercue said:

BTC is up 46% this month.  161% in last 12 months.  With expected interest rate reductions this year, it is very possible we will see $100k this year.  

It's true, although it's also true that BTC is still roughly flat from it's nominal high over 2 years ago, and around 25% down in value in real post-inflation terms. With the historic volatility of this speculative asset, it is very possible we will see $25k this year.

Or not. Not a clue :-)

silvercue

Frequentlyhere said:

silvercue said:

BTC is up 46% this month.  161% in last 12 months.  With expected interest rate reductions this year, it is very possible we will see $100k this year.  

It's true, although it's also true that BTC is still roughly flat from it's nominal high over 2 years ago, and around 25% down in value in real post-inflation terms. With the historic volatility of this speculative asset, it is very possible we will see $25k this year.

Or not. Not a clue :-)

Well, it will never go up in a straight line, that is for sure.  But the cycles can be seen.  Its high 2 years ago was following the cycle to ATH after halving.  I expect the same this time and then.....maybe another almighty dump, will have to wait and see.  But I have my approximate exit strategy in mind.  

Malthusian

silvercue said:

Ahead of schedule too.  

lol

Lest we forget, the "schedule" was that Bitcoin was going to hit $100,000 in 2021 and hit $400,000 by 2025, if you believed this thread. Tick tock. 

What would the bros have said at the ATH if you'd told them that three years later they'd be popping champagne over Bitcoin going nowhere?

onomatopoeia99

Scottex99 said:

61K.........

Any idea what's been driving the performance in the last month? There hasn't been the massive media coverage that was seen with both peaks in 2021 this time.

Linton

onomatopoeia99 said:

Scottex99 said:

61K.........

Any idea what's been driving the performance in the last month? There hasn't been the massive media coverage that was seen with both peaks in 2021 this time.

Random noise with positive feedback as always.

MeteredOut

onomatopoeia99 said:

Scottex99 said:

61K.........

Any idea what's been driving the performance in the last month? There hasn't been the massive media coverage that was seen with both peaks in 2021 this time.

FOMO.

(a lot is driven by social media)

Adyinvestment

onomatopoeia99 said:

Any idea what's been driving the performance in the last month? There hasn't been the massive media coverage that was seen with both peaks in 2021 this time.

Bitcoin ETF's, this isn't retail people on the street FOMO, it is much larger institutions getting in.

The Blackrock ETF has had the most successful launch in history by volume and is already in the top 10 of all ETF's by daily volume.

These ETF's are consuming many multiples of the Bitcoin supply mined every day, some day's it has been 10x the supply and the supply will halve shortly, and the numbers are transparent so anyone can see. More demand than supply and the big players like Blackrock & Fidelity etc are now marketing it to their clients.

RichTips

onomatopoeia99 said:

Scottex99 said:

61K.........

Any idea what's been driving the performance in the last month? There hasn't been the massive media coverage that was seen with both peaks in 2021 this time.

The above chart depicts the combined balances of the spot ETFs launched in mid-January, as well as the balance of what was previously the Greyscale futues ETF before it transitioned to a spot ETF with the launch of the others. The chart demonstrates steady growth in the total market and the market share of all but the Greyscale product. These products require that investment is matched with on-chain purchases of BTC. The reason for Greyscale's decline might well be attributable to profit-taking by those who held the former and only futures ETF (Greyscale), movement of funds held in that product to these new products offering lower fees, or (likely) a mixture of both. Either way, data seems to imply that there is an appitite for these products, and that appitite is growing (for now, anyway).

Speculation, of course, plays into the price of Bitcoin and certainly the broader crypto market. I'm willing to speculate that the number of people that hold Bitcoin either through self-custody or through custodied products such as ETFs will continue to grow over a timescale measured in years. Should that be the case, at least in theory, as the BTC token supply increases at a predictable rate until it reaches a finite total, this (combined with the devaluation of the fiat currencies used to price it) could be anticipated to lead to its price appreciation in the long term. Of course, in the short term the Bitcoin price is highly volatile (upwardsly at the moment) and were it to cease being redeemable for goods and services or currencies that can be used to buy goods and services, there's not going to be a whole lot you can do with it.

Oh, there's also the halving, wherein the emmission rate of new BTC is cut in half every four years. That's looking like it'll occur in late April or May, last time I checked.

Scottex99

Yep as above.

ETFs and FOMO basically. My phone blowing up last night from friends and random contacts who suddenly now realised BTC is going to ATH again and how can they buy some.

Time to plan some kind of exit strategy to be implemented end of 24, start of 25 perhaps

Adyinvestment

Scottex99 said:

Yep as above.

My phone blowing up last night from friends and random contacts who suddenly now realised BTC is going to ATH again and how can they buy some.

Good to hear...funny how price can do that

I have been keeping an eye on Google trends Bitcoin/Crypto and so far it has been very low, I expect this will start to change soon.