BITCOIN

Section62

adindas said:

HHarry said:

adindas said:

Malthusian said:

Thank you for confirming the only way to make money from Bitcoin is to sell it to someone else for a higher price than you bought it (aka Greater Fool Theory). Or to put it another way, from somebody else losing money.

For comparison, if someone asked me "How can I make money from shares without someone else losing money", the answer would take one paragraph.

If you are refering to me, no I am not confirming The greater fool theory applies to BTC. In fact it is just the opposite. Re-Read all my posts.

I’ve read them all.  Basically “Bitcoin is great because some wealthy Tech people have bought it”

Anyone who asks how they are going to make money from it are fed a semi-offensive response.

Could it be that the wealthy Tech people will make their money by selling it on to some other punter at a higher price?  But they can influence small changes in the price  (Elon Musk) in a way that a normal punter can’t, and a small increase can mean fat £££ with a large enough holding.

ReRead ALL my posts, watch the video about the blockchain. You will find out that I never confirm that BTC is a greater fool theory. In fact it is just the opposite.

Find out the statistics of the distribution of who own BTC around the worlds. Find out who has the power to pull the rug from under. You ppull the rug you will fall alone.

Noone owns BTC more than 5%. In fact it is distributed among multi millions of people around the world. In the greater fool theory the scheme is initiated by the mastermind. But again do not believe random people on the internet. We believe what we want to believe in what we have concluded from what we have learned.

So your argument is that Greater Fool Theory doesn't apply because there is no "Mastermind"?

Do you have one of those links to the 'rule' where a "Mastermind" is an essential prerequisite for GFT to apply?

Would Matt Damon know?

Scottex99

"Collapsing" haha. Price trades sideways for a few weeks after being the best performing asset of all time, and it's collapsing? 

On the guy getting fished from a fake mining TG group, I don't see how that has anything to do with BTC or Crypto. Anyone that believes you can double your money in a day or make 2000 every 6 hours or whatever it was, is going to lose their money from being stupid regardless.

If a Nigerian Prince email somehow scams you out of 10k, does that mean all gmails must be fraudulent.

You are right that the retail hype always builds when the markets get near new ATHs, but the majority of people on this thread supporting/holding crypto are not fanbois and have been investing for years rather than months. I'm still super bullish long term despite the price being sub $50k right now

IvanOpinion

Section62 said:

IvanOpinion said:

Well that busts my theory.  To me it appeared that you could judge the performance of Bitcon by looking at the position of this thread.  When it was near the top it was doing well with the fanbois out in force, but it always seemed to drop a few pages when its value went down.  I was surprised to see it come to the top today given how the price has been collapsing over the last few weeks.

Interesting theory.

I suggest giving it a name - and would propose the "YACC* Index" as a possible option. (pronounced 'Yack')

(*Yet Another Crypto Collapse)

Any chance of throwing another 'C' on the end ----- YACCC (Yet another Crypto Collapse Currency). If we could attach the blockchain to that we might have something very sellable. 

Section62

Scottex99 said:

Anyone that believes you can double your money in a day or make 2000 every 6 hours or whatever it was, is going to lose their money from being stupid regardless.

I wouldn't disagree with you - essentially the point is that anything which is unregulated and operates online/digitally is just facilitating people exercising their "stupid"[ity].  If you give people the tools to cut themselves with some of them will always find a way to manage to chop off one of their arms or legs.

However, the problem is compounded when (without checks and balances) people are free to scream "Fortune favours the brave!" as if this were some kind of sound financial advice.

We could probably agree on "Fortune favours the well-educated, well-informed, professional investor who has carried out their due diligence" - but that isn't the soundbite the ad-men are looking for.

Scottex99

Yep.

And I guess it's harder for boomers or retail noobs to separate the obvious scams and schemes when there are coins and protocols out there that have generated insane returns. Whether luck or skill or just buying drugs on the silk road, there are still people out there that bought BTC at $5.

Still, anything that guarantees a profit or sounds too good to be true is clearly a scam.

I'm not bothered about soundbites either although BTC and ETH are THE FUTURE OF MONEY and are GOING TO THE MOON haha

Aegis

adindas said:

HHarry said:

adindas said:

Malthusian said:

Thank you for confirming the only way to make money from Bitcoin is to sell it to someone else for a higher price than you bought it (aka Greater Fool Theory). Or to put it another way, from somebody else losing money.

For comparison, if someone asked me "How can I make money from shares without someone else losing money", the answer would take one paragraph.

If you are refering to me, no I am not confirming The greater fool theory applies to BTC. In fact it is just the opposite. Re-Read all my posts.

I’ve read them all.  Basically “Bitcoin is great because some wealthy Tech people have bought it”

Anyone who asks how they are going to make money from it are fed a semi-offensive response.

Could it be that the wealthy Tech people will make their money by selling it on to some other punter at a higher price?  But they can influence small changes in the price  (Elon Musk) in a way that a normal punter can’t, and a small increase can mean fat £££ with a large enough holding.

ReRead ALL my posts, watch the video about the blockchain. You will find out that I never confirm that BTC is a greater fool theory. In fact it is just the opposite.

Find out the statistics of the distribution of who own BTC around the worlds. Find out who has the power to pull the rug from under. Find out how long will it normally take before the fools find out that they have been conned in The greater fool Theory (compared it to BTC has been in existence since Jan. 3, 2009). Find out who has enough power to pull the rug from under. It is all on this thread. You pull the rug under you will fall alone.

Noone owns BTC more than 5%. In fact it is distributed among multi millions of people around the world. You will need to control 50%+ of a particular asset to dictate the result you want it to be.

In the greater fool theory the scheme is initiated by the mastermind. But again do not believe random people on the internet. We believe what we want to believe in what we have concluded from what we have learned.

Honestly it seems that you are suffering from a misconception of what Greater Fool Theory is.  In essence, it's any investment which is only traded according to market sentiment and has no future value flowing in to the specific assets you own.  For example, if you own 1/1000 of a company, then 1/1000 of that company's assets are yours, and you have an entitlement to any dividends paid out, together with a notional participation in the trading activities of the company.

Contrast that to commodities and you essentially have something that cannot generate revenue or pay dividends.  As a result, in order to make a profit you have to sell the asset to someone else who pays more than you bought it for.  The issue is that the second buyer is a "fool" because they didn't buy at the same price as you, but the Greater Fool Theory extends that to say that you must have equally been a fool to buy at the price you did when others were clearly selling.  The issue with any asset priced purely by Greater Fool Theory is that at any time you are purely affected by market sentiment and nothing else.  Cash isn't being added to the BTC network, the network itself isn't producing revenues for holders, so the only valuation metric effectively has to be "it's valuable because it's popular".

Scottex99

By that logic, gold is greater fool too?

Or does it get a pass because people like to wear it or put it in electronics?

Aegis

Scottex99 said:

By that logic, gold is greater fool too?

Or does it get a pass because people like to wear it or put it in electronics?

Yep, gold is also subject to greater fool theory.  That's why I don't consider it as suitable for my own investment portfolio.

adindas

Aegis said:

Scottex99 said:

By that logic, gold is greater fool too?

Or does it get a pass because people like to wear it or put it in electronics?

Yep, gold is also subject to greater fool theory.  That's why I don't consider it as suitable for my own investment portfolio.

I am not referring to anyone. Just my personal opinion that I very much worry if a professional is advising someone not to invest in Gold especially during high inflation. Also, the one who advises the client to invest in bond, gilts when you know it is definitely a money losing strategy. Of course will also need to consider the attitude to risk of the person in question. As I always mention I would rather put my money into RSA. A few of them are paying 3%+ and more flexible when you want to allocate it to other investment.

Many investors including multi billionaires hedge Fund managers, investment gurus know that Gold or gold mining is a proven method of hedging against inflation. A few to name Stanley Drunkenmiller, Ray Dalio, George Soros, John Paulson, Peter Lynch etc. Also it is well wirtten in many investment literatures.

To me I will only pay a financial adviser who could beat the market making a return of 30%+ pa.

Believe it or not reasonable number of retailer investors make that return. Find out the evidence yourself as noone here is getting paid to convince other people.

Aegis

adindas said:

Aegis said:

Scottex99 said:

By that logic, gold is greater fool too?

Or does it get a pass because people like to wear it or put it in electronics?

Yep, gold is also subject to greater fool theory.  That's why I don't consider it as suitable for my own investment portfolio.

I am not referring to anyone. Just my personal opinion that I very much worry if a professional is advising someone not to invest in Gold especially during high inflation. Also, the one who advises the client to invest in bond, gilts when you know it is definitely a money losing strategy. Of course will also need to consider the attitude to risk of the person in question. As I always mention I would rather put my money into RSA. A few of them are paying 3%+ and more flexible when you want to allocate it to other investment.

My preference is for equities in my own portfolio.  For clients, I only advise bonds and gilts to bring the total risk of the portfolio down to a comfortable level, and I always point out that this part of the portfolio isn't designed to provide the long-term growth but instead generates income and generally maintains capital value.  For a client with a high tolerance for risk and a long-term aim for growth, I'd be looking at close to 100% equities.

Many investors including multi billionaires hedge Fund managers, investment gurus know that Gold or gold mining is a proven method of hedging against inflation. A few to name Stanley Drunkenmiller, Ray Dalio, George Soros, John Paulson, Peter Lynch etc. Also it is well wirtten in many investment literatures.

Hang on, gold mining is a very different beast to investing in gold as a commodity.  As a commodity, gold is expected to broadly rise with inflation in the long run, but gold miners can be wildly volatile growth stories.  These have very different risk profiles and reasons for holding.  I'd hold miners in my portfolio, but not the commodity itself.

To me I will only pay a financial adviser who could beat the market making a return of 30%+ pa.

Believe it or not reasonable number of retailer investors make that return. Find out the evidence yourself as noone here is getting paid to convince other people.

To me this shows a real lack of investment knowledge.  Long-term returns on equities are some 5.5% above inflation for, I believe, the MSCI World index, so assuming inflation of 3% that's 8.5% return a year, and that is for a high-risk portfolio that can see enormous swings in value from year to year - thoroughly unsuitable for a lot of investors.  Yes, some people might generate returns of 30% or more a year, but some others adopting similar strategies might lose everything.  If you only look at the winners, it's easy to achieve that level of return.  If you factor in the losers as well, suddenly it's a lot harder.

Do please lead with that requirement when making an enquiry with financial advisers in future.  It will save everyone time and allow them to turn you away without any need for lengthy discussions about your circumstances or goals.