Buying a House December 2021 - June 2020 - Thoughts please

Getting_greyer

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

AlexMac said:

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Thanks for your input there. I don't really have a gut feeling about this unfortunately. My gut says to wait and see what happens as I suspect that we're heading for a painful recession. However, we've considered as many of the downsides of buying now as we can and concluded that we'll try and manage as many of them as best we can and that the positives of owning our own place outweigh the potential negatives. Looking at the mortgage we're going for c65% of every month's payment will be a debt repayment. The mortgage payment will be the same as our monthly rent where 100% disappears.
 

News today saying that 7 out of 10 students have headed home without bothering with a Covid test, I am basing the next years investment plan on there being a lower than expected take up for the vaccine and some future spikes and lockdowns, although I could be totally wrong on this and get caught out by quickly rising stock markets moving beyond a buying opportunity. You should go for it if you feel it is the right thing IMO, but be psychologically prepared for future value drops on your property.

Agreed. I don't think the vaccine will be everyone's saviour and since we're not prepared to debate any alternative other than restrictions and lockdowns I suspect that next year the recovery will not be that which some hope for. I'm prepared for the market to fall.  

I don't see any big lockdown type restrictions happening past April maybe in January after the covid Xmas ceasefire.  Unless it's used as a threat for those not willing to be vaccinated?  
Tax cuts for business and vat in the budget next year I think.

Scotbot

Crashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

AlexMac said:

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Thanks for your input there. I don't really have a gut feeling about this unfortunately. My gut says to wait and see what happens as I suspect that we're heading for a painful recession. However, we've considered as many of the downsides of buying now as we can and concluded that we'll try and manage as many of them as best we can and that the positives of owning our own place outweigh the potential negatives. Looking at the mortgage we're going for c65% of every month's payment will be a debt repayment. The mortgage payment will be the same as our monthly rent where 100% disappears.
 

News today saying that 7 out of 10 students have headed home without bothering with a Covid test, I am basing the next years investment plan on there being a lower than expected take up for the vaccine and some future spikes and lockdowns, although I could be totally wrong on this and get caught out by quickly rising stock markets moving beyond a buying opportunity. You should go for it if you feel it is the right thing IMO, but be psychologically prepared for future value drops on your property.

Agreed. I don't think the vaccine will be everyone's saviour and since we're not prepared to debate any alternative other than restrictions and lockdowns I suspect that next year the recovery will not be that which some hope for. I'm prepared for the market to fall.  

Good plan, my inner voice today said... Stock up on some corporate credit and some more government bonds, not sure why but I`ve bought some more anyway, maybe experienced heads in this area will comment?

One for the savings and investment forum

Scotbot

coachman12 said:

House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.

Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.

I doubt many people have been put off selling in 2020, maybe the over sixties but round here the SDLT holiday has resulted in significantly more properties on the market. 
As for next year the market will be affected by two things, what happens to SDLT and  number of forced sales. If lenders start to reposess (they have been forbidden until Jan) then prices will may stall or fall. If they fall that reduces property numbers, many who don't have to sell will wait it out. 
You may get better value but I doubt you will have more choice

mither_2

Scotbot said:

coachman12 said:

House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.

Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.

I doubt many people have been put off selling in 2020, maybe the over sixties but round here the SDLT holiday has resulted in significantly more properties on the market. 
As for next year the market will be affected by two things, what happens to SDLT and  number of forced sales. If lenders start to reposess (they have been forbidden until Jan) then prices will may stall or fall. If they fall that reduces property numbers, many who don't have to sell will wait it out. 
You may get better value but I doubt you will have more choice

Agreed - I don't see there being  a lot more choice. We may make a saving as I expect prices to drop. However, we've been following the market for some time and have benchmarked the house we're buying against the values that have been achieved in the last 2-3 years and the price is broadly in line with those. There are a few properties that we were interested in that were marketed way above the average market price for the last 2-3 years (and on some the buyers offered above the asking prices) but I'm assuming they there were a shortage on the market. We've seen a lot of houses and nearly all of the sellers we spoke to were older people who's children had left home and they were leaving London and getting better value elsewhere or were downsizing locally. Our sellers are moving to Yorkshire (wanted to be in the countryside) but most were moving outside from London but not that far. I suspect alot of those planning moves like that would have tried to do so already to benefit from the stamp duty saving.    

Crashy_Time

Scotbot said:

coachman12 said:

House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.

Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.

I doubt many people have been put off selling in 2020, maybe the over sixties but round here the SDLT holiday has resulted in significantly more properties on the market. 
As for next year the market will be affected by two things, what happens to SDLT and  number of forced sales. If lenders start to reposess (they have been forbidden until Jan) then prices will may stall or fall. If they fall that reduces property numbers, many who don't have to sell will wait it out. 
You may get better value but I doubt you will have more choice

The main things affecting the market will be how effective the vaccine is perceived to be and interest rates IMO.

coachman12

Crashy_Time said:

Scotbot said:

coachman12 said:

House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.

Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.

I doubt many people have been put off selling in 2020, maybe the over sixties but round here the SDLT holiday has resulted in significantly more properties on the market. 
As for next year the market will be affected by two things, what happens to SDLT and  number of forced sales. If lenders start to reposess (they have been forbidden until Jan) then prices will may stall or fall. If they fall that reduces property numbers, many who don't have to sell will wait it out. 
You may get better value but I doubt you will have more choice

The main things affecting the market will be how effective the vaccine is perceived to be and interest rates IMO.

Fully agree with Crashy.  SDLT and forced sales are of little consequence compared to your two factors, Crashy.

Scotbot

coachman12 said:I 

Crashy_Time said:

Scotbot said:

coachman12 said:

House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.

Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.

I doubt many people have been put off selling in 2020, maybe the over sixties but round here the SDLT holiday has resulted in significantly more properties on the market. 
As for next year the market will be affected by two things, what happens to SDLT and  number of forced sales. If lenders start to reposess (they have been forbidden until Jan) then prices will may stall or fall. If they fall that reduces property numbers, many who don't have to sell will wait it out. 
You may get better value but I doubt you will have more choice

The main things affecting the market will be how effective the vaccine is perceived to be and interest rates IMO.

Fully agree with Crashy.  SDLT and forced sales are of little consequence compared to your two factors, Crashy.

I appreciate regions vary but the SDLT holiday has had a major impact on prices and volume in a number of areas. Forced sales are directly linked to interest rates

Scotbot

Crashy_Time said:

Scotbot said:

coachman12 said:

House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.

Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.

I doubt many people have been put off selling in 2020, maybe the over sixties but round here the SDLT holiday has resulted in significantly more properties on the market. 
As for next year the market will be affected by two things, what happens to SDLT and  number of forced sales. If lenders start to reposess (they have been forbidden until Jan) then prices will may stall or fall. If they fall that reduces property numbers, many who don't have to sell will wait it out. 
You may get better value but I doubt you will have more choice

The main things affecting the market will be how effective the vaccine is perceived to be and interest rates IMO.

What do you expect to happen to interest rates?

coachman12

Scotbot said:

The main things affecting the market will be how effective the vaccine is perceived to be and interest rates IMO.

Fully agree with Crashy.  SDLT and forced sales are of little consequence compared to your two factors, Crashy.

I appreciate regions vary but the SDLT holiday has had a major impact on prices and volume in a number of areas. Forced sales are directly linked to interest rates

Having a bad day are we ? With a little education, you must know that Crashy's two factors outweigh others.

Scotbot

coachman12 said:

Scotbot said:

The main things affecting the market will be how effective the vaccine is perceived to be and interest rates IMO.

Fully agree with Crashy.  SDLT and forced sales are of little consequence compared to your two factors, Crashy.

I appreciate regions vary but the SDLT holiday has had a major impact on prices and volume in a number of areas. Forced sales are directly linked to interest rates

Having a bad day are we ? With a little education, you must know that Crashy's two factors outweigh others.

Depends on the mix, no change in interest rates will have little effect.