Buying a House December 2021 - June 2020 - Thoughts please

mither_2

badger09 said:

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

I don`t think letting it out will work out very well if the area "went downhill" (is this something you think could happen?) I think by buying at this stage you should be planning on a LONG stay, because remember even if you fix at a good a rate future buyers may not be able to do so meaning house prices will be under pressure (again)

From your username can I assume that you expect there to be a property crash at some time in the future? What do you think will cause this and when do you expect it to occur? 
Genuine question. 
I bought my first home in 2010. I was certain it would lose value as the economy looked shaky at the time and I was very nervous about purchasing it. I sold it last month and the price had increased 53%. No way did I see that coming. This is probably not unusual in various places in the country. 
I suspect there will be a crash at some point but am unsure when this might be. We seem to keep pushing the problem into the future. I'm certainly assuming if I buy in the next 3 months that it will lose value in the short term, possibly the medium term too but if we stay long enough hopefully prices will recover. Certainly not expecting any price increases.
As with last time we're going for a house with a driveway and a decent size garden in a suburban area.
My logic is that there will always be a demand for similar properties for families, couples, house shares . Its whether there will be enough buyers that can afford it that will bring down the prices. 
  




 

Just to give a little context  - if you take a quick look at Crashy_Time's posting history, you will see the same predictions being made for the last 6 years - at least.  

At some point there will be crash and he will be right. 
Its the timing and size and whether its global, nationwide, local etc that's tougher to call. 

AlexMac

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Crashy_Time

mither_2 said:

badger09 said:

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

I don`t think letting it out will work out very well if the area "went downhill" (is this something you think could happen?) I think by buying at this stage you should be planning on a LONG stay, because remember even if you fix at a good a rate future buyers may not be able to do so meaning house prices will be under pressure (again)

From your username can I assume that you expect there to be a property crash at some time in the future? What do you think will cause this and when do you expect it to occur? 
Genuine question. 
I bought my first home in 2010. I was certain it would lose value as the economy looked shaky at the time and I was very nervous about purchasing it. I sold it last month and the price had increased 53%. No way did I see that coming. This is probably not unusual in various places in the country. 
I suspect there will be a crash at some point but am unsure when this might be. We seem to keep pushing the problem into the future. I'm certainly assuming if I buy in the next 3 months that it will lose value in the short term, possibly the medium term too but if we stay long enough hopefully prices will recover. Certainly not expecting any price increases.
As with last time we're going for a house with a driveway and a decent size garden in a suburban area.
My logic is that there will always be a demand for similar properties for families, couples, house shares . Its whether there will be enough buyers that can afford it that will bring down the prices. 
  




 

Just to give a little context  - if you take a quick look at Crashy_Time's posting history, you will see the same predictions being made for the last 6 years - at least.  

At some point there will be crash and he will be right. 
Its the timing and size and whether its global, nationwide, local etc that's tougher to call. 

The thing is global, the PTB actually want inflation (good for bankers)  doesn`t mean they will get it though (they have been trying for over ten years LOL) but that is diametrically opposed to what someone with large mortgage or other debt should want because interest rates will rise and other costs will rise making it harder to service debt. Covid shows us what happens to overstretched ordinary people when crisis strikes, hopefully going forward more people are going to question why a basic need needs to cost so much (it is the ideal way to get secured debt into the economy is the answer, but as that has ceased to be of benefit to anyone now, even bankers, we need a new solution)

mither_2

TCrashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

badger09 said:

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

I don`t think letting it out will work out very well if the area "went downhill" (is this something you think could happen?) I think by buying at this stage you should be planning on a LONG stay, because remember even if you fix at a good a rate future buyers may not be able to do so meaning house prices will be under pressure (again)

From your username can I assume that you expect there to be a property crash at some time in the future? What do you think will cause this and when do you expect it to occur? 
Genuine question. 
I bought my first home in 2010. I was certain it would lose value as the economy looked shaky at the time and I was very nervous about purchasing it. I sold it last month and the price had increased 53%. No way did I see that coming. This is probably not unusual in various places in the country. 
I suspect there will be a crash at some point but am unsure when this might be. We seem to keep pushing the problem into the future. I'm certainly assuming if I buy in the next 3 months that it will lose value in the short term, possibly the medium term too but if we stay long enough hopefully prices will recover. Certainly not expecting any price increases.
As with last time we're going for a house with a driveway and a decent size garden in a suburban area.
My logic is that there will always be a demand for similar properties for families, couples, house shares . Its whether there will be enough buyers that can afford it that will bring down the prices. 
  




 

Just to give a little context  - if you take a quick look at Crashy_Time's posting history, you will see the same predictions being made for the last 6 years - at least.  

At some point there will be crash and he will be right. 
Its the timing and size and whether its global, nationwide, local etc that's tougher to call. 

The thing is global, the PTB actually want inflation (good for bankers)  doesn`t mean they will get it though (they have been trying for over ten years LOL) but that is diametrically opposed to what someone with large mortgage or other debt should want because interest rates will rise and other costs will rise making it harder to service debt. Covid shows us what happens to overstretched ordinary people when crisis strikes, hopefully going forward more people are going to question why a basic need needs to cost so much (it is the ideal way to get secured debt into the economy is the answer, but as that has ceased to be of benefit to anyone now, even bankers, we need a new solution)

These sounds reasonable. The only way that we can try to mange this is to fix the interest rate for 5 years and try to reduce the balance. The other option is to continue renting indefinitely which has plenty of downsides.   

mither_2

AlexMac said:

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Thanks for your input there. I don't really have a gut feeling about this unfortunately. My gut says to wait and see what happens as I suspect that we're heading for a painful recession. However, we've considered as many of the downsides of buying now as we can and concluded that we'll try and manage as many of them as best we can and that the positives of owning our own place outweigh the potential negatives. Looking at the mortgage we're going for c65% of every month's payment will be a debt repayment. The mortgage payment will be the same as our monthly rent where 100% disappears.
 

Crashy_Time

mither_2 said:

TCrashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

badger09 said:

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

I don`t think letting it out will work out very well if the area "went downhill" (is this something you think could happen?) I think by buying at this stage you should be planning on a LONG stay, because remember even if you fix at a good a rate future buyers may not be able to do so meaning house prices will be under pressure (again)

From your username can I assume that you expect there to be a property crash at some time in the future? What do you think will cause this and when do you expect it to occur? 
Genuine question. 
I bought my first home in 2010. I was certain it would lose value as the economy looked shaky at the time and I was very nervous about purchasing it. I sold it last month and the price had increased 53%. No way did I see that coming. This is probably not unusual in various places in the country. 
I suspect there will be a crash at some point but am unsure when this might be. We seem to keep pushing the problem into the future. I'm certainly assuming if I buy in the next 3 months that it will lose value in the short term, possibly the medium term too but if we stay long enough hopefully prices will recover. Certainly not expecting any price increases.
As with last time we're going for a house with a driveway and a decent size garden in a suburban area.
My logic is that there will always be a demand for similar properties for families, couples, house shares . Its whether there will be enough buyers that can afford it that will bring down the prices. 
  




 

Just to give a little context  - if you take a quick look at Crashy_Time's posting history, you will see the same predictions being made for the last 6 years - at least.  

At some point there will be crash and he will be right. 
Its the timing and size and whether its global, nationwide, local etc that's tougher to call. 

The thing is global, the PTB actually want inflation (good for bankers)  doesn`t mean they will get it though (they have been trying for over ten years LOL) but that is diametrically opposed to what someone with large mortgage or other debt should want because interest rates will rise and other costs will rise making it harder to service debt. Covid shows us what happens to overstretched ordinary people when crisis strikes, hopefully going forward more people are going to question why a basic need needs to cost so much (it is the ideal way to get secured debt into the economy is the answer, but as that has ceased to be of benefit to anyone now, even bankers, we need a new solution)

These sounds reasonable. The only way that we can try to mange this is to fix the interest rate for 5 years and try to reduce the balance. The other option is to continue renting indefinitely which has plenty of downsides.   

Yes some overpayments might be a good idea.

Crashy_Time

mither_2 said:

AlexMac said:

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Thanks for your input there. I don't really have a gut feeling about this unfortunately. My gut says to wait and see what happens as I suspect that we're heading for a painful recession. However, we've considered as many of the downsides of buying now as we can and concluded that we'll try and manage as many of them as best we can and that the positives of owning our own place outweigh the potential negatives. Looking at the mortgage we're going for c65% of every month's payment will be a debt repayment. The mortgage payment will be the same as our monthly rent where 100% disappears.
 

News today saying that 7 out of 10 students have headed home without bothering with a Covid test, I am basing the next years investment plan on there being a lower than expected take up for the vaccine and some future spikes and lockdowns, although I could be totally wrong on this and get caught out by quickly rising stock markets moving beyond a buying opportunity. You should go for it if you feel it is the right thing IMO, but be psychologically prepared for future value drops on your property.

mither_2

Crashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

AlexMac said:

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Thanks for your input there. I don't really have a gut feeling about this unfortunately. My gut says to wait and see what happens as I suspect that we're heading for a painful recession. However, we've considered as many of the downsides of buying now as we can and concluded that we'll try and manage as many of them as best we can and that the positives of owning our own place outweigh the potential negatives. Looking at the mortgage we're going for c65% of every month's payment will be a debt repayment. The mortgage payment will be the same as our monthly rent where 100% disappears.
 

News today saying that 7 out of 10 students have headed home without bothering with a Covid test, I am basing the next years investment plan on there being a lower than expected take up for the vaccine and some future spikes and lockdowns, although I could be totally wrong on this and get caught out by quickly rising stock markets moving beyond a buying opportunity. You should go for it if you feel it is the right thing IMO, but be psychologically prepared for future value drops on your property.

Agreed. I don't think the vaccine will be everyone's saviour and since we're not prepared to debate any alternative other than restrictions and lockdowns I suspect that next year the recovery will not be that which some hope for. I'm prepared for the market to fall.  

Crashy_Time

mither_2 said:

Crashy_Time said:

mither_2 said:

AlexMac said:

mither_2 said:

I'm minded to go ahead with the purchase. Its a decent size house with a garden in nice street. Somewhere I'd be content for 5 years if needs be. If I've bought at the top of the market and it crashes I think I'll fare better than some of the very expensive flats I still see selling in zones 1-2. 

That!
Just do it... and that's a gut feeling based on experience...

I bought in 1975, 1985, 1995 (a BTL), 1997, 2001, 2007 (a holiday home-sold 2011), 2011 (plus a second BTL in 2011)  and 2014 (another holiday gaff; sold in 2019).

I've lived through interest rates ranging from an eye-watering 15% (in the 1980's) to a current 1% (a tracker on 0.75% over BoE; which seemed toppy when BoE base rate was 5-6% 20 years ago, but is great now), and also through two crashes; in 1987-8 and 2007-8 when  in some areas prices fell 20-25%.

Never regretted a single purchase.  Even the holiday one in 2007- bought at the peak of the market worked out OK as when prices wobbled, we let it out, and otherwise every single one appreciated - in some cases by an obscene amount; £90k odd to £180k in 3 years in one case in the late 20th Century; another almost doubling in 8 years in the 'noughties...  But the main determinant in each of the homes we purchased was that we bought them as somewhere to live; not as an investment, so didn't over-think it...

...and chance played a massive part in every choice.  

So just do it; good luck

Thanks for your input there. I don't really have a gut feeling about this unfortunately. My gut says to wait and see what happens as I suspect that we're heading for a painful recession. However, we've considered as many of the downsides of buying now as we can and concluded that we'll try and manage as many of them as best we can and that the positives of owning our own place outweigh the potential negatives. Looking at the mortgage we're going for c65% of every month's payment will be a debt repayment. The mortgage payment will be the same as our monthly rent where 100% disappears.
 

News today saying that 7 out of 10 students have headed home without bothering with a Covid test, I am basing the next years investment plan on there being a lower than expected take up for the vaccine and some future spikes and lockdowns, although I could be totally wrong on this and get caught out by quickly rising stock markets moving beyond a buying opportunity. You should go for it if you feel it is the right thing IMO, but be psychologically prepared for future value drops on your property.

Agreed. I don't think the vaccine will be everyone's saviour and since we're not prepared to debate any alternative other than restrictions and lockdowns I suspect that next year the recovery will not be that which some hope for. I'm prepared for the market to fall.  

Good plan, my inner voice today said... Stock up on some corporate credit and some more government bonds, not sure why but I`ve bought some more anyway, maybe experienced heads in this area will comment?

coachman12

What a load of pessimism and gloom. Last March, I might have agreed, but now we have vaccines coming on line, we have a new year which is bound to better than 2020----and once the flu season is out of the way and vaccines ( which I think will be queued round the block for ) working, we could kill Covid. And the economy will improve enormously. House sales , too, will be lively, as ( for all the activity we have had recently ) those who have been put off in 2020 will be lining up to move house.
So I have no time for the doom merchants' postings above. Let's congratulate the scientists who have uniquely moved mountains to come up with so many vaccines at different stages of readiness, including right now.
Good feelings for the economy and society in 2021.
Lots of house sales at competitive prices by summer next year. Those who waited for the dangers of Covid to dissipate will be the ones who come out on top as opposed to those who acted in 2020.