Buying a House December 2021 - June 2020 - Thoughts please

mither_2

Good Evening All,
My partner and I trying to buy our first property together. We've seen close to 20 properties in three weeks. If these we liked 3 and have been outbid on all of them (price agreed above asking price). We will keep on looking but are also considering what might change the market in the next 6 months. 
Our situation

• Both mid 30s No kids but would like to try soon - not getting any younger :-( 
• Want to buy a house with garden and off street parking.
• We have the necessary deposit and mortgage offer 
• We'd ideally stay in north London but have considered moving further out as both are able to work from home.   

These are the variables that we can see possible affecting the market in the next few months 

• Stamp duty holiday comes to an end 31/03 (seems to be driving so many people to move). Rumours that it will be extended? 
• Furlough scheme ends 31/03. Will the government allow increased unemployment or extend the scheme again? 
• Possible changes to CGT that could lead to landlords to sell up their properties sooner before the changes come in (unsure how quickly they can be bought in though?
• Introduction of 2% surcharge for foreign buyers from 01/04. This seems particularly relevant to London but I would assume that more of an issue for flats than family homes?    
• Brexit - if we get a deal then sentiment may become positive? If we don't could it go the other way? 
• C19 vaccines - they sound promising but their not fully tested and the gov still has to administer them. Still a potential for national lockdown 3.   
• Mortgage lenders - in the 6 months we've been following the market lenders have increased their rates on the 25% deposit mortgages that we intend to go for and there seem to be less lending. This could go either way in the new year I would guess.  
• Home working - everyone assumes that this will become the norm now but what if it doesn't and employers want staff back in the office? 
• We looked at moving to Wiltshire/Gloucestershire (closer to our families) but property has started going up there so not a cheap option any more and may have to commute into the office anyway starting next year. 

Are there any other variables that we've missed and should consider?
The market feels like 2007 when I bought my first house in 2007. The market was going up and up and everyone wanted to buy before they got too much more expensive. I bought and 6 months later was in negative equity. However we can't go on renting forever and so need to do something....
Any thoughts/suggestions welcome. 


 





  

Getting_greyer

One thing I can say for certain is that in six months, house prices and cost of lending will either be lower, higher or roughly the same.

I'm just about to exchange on my yard and I do struggle to hold of the thought that if I wait 6 months I could end up with a better deal.  That said I just wanna crack on with my life and hope I don't end up destitute.  I imagine I'm not the only ftb to have the thoughts? 

I've tried to mitigate as best I can by going for 5 yeat fix and buying a house that is big enough that if we end up stuck we'll be OK not much I can do other than not buy at all. 

Could you get cheaper by waiting? Possibly and I guess it's more likely for next year than has been in past few. You might get 20k by waiting but then you might get outbid as well.  

My brother offered me unsolicited advice when I was deciding whether to go ahead he said, " you'll never find anything perfect, just find something that ticks most boxes and try not to !!!!!! your pants about it".

Getting_greyer

Also, you will be able to gather a lot from Wednesday spending review.
Dependant upon if Johnson or Sunak ideology is followed.

mither_2

Yes, these are valid points. 
Our idea was to find a place that we would be happy to stay in for 5 years or more. Our logic being if the market drops then we can hang on until it recovers again. However, we agreed that if we're going to buy at the top of the market (and possibly overpay) then we should get a place that we're both happy with as we could be there for some years. However, we're getting outbid on properties that were well within our range 6 months ago. 
Interesting point re Johnson vs Sunak. Sunak has spent it but how to go about getting it back. From what I've read the take up on the stamp duty holiday has been greater than expected and created an even bigger hole to fill. 

mither_2

If anyone else knows of any variable that we haven't considered then please let me know. 
A lot of what happens with our purchase could depend on luck but I want to try and make as educated a decision as possible.  

mither_2

theb help to buy scheme will also be less generous from 01/04 onwards which could have an indirect affect. 

Carl2510

I’m guessing you mean you have a DIP/AIP not a mortgage offer as you can’t have that without having successfully had a bid accepted and gone through the process of a mortgage application.

Getting_greyer

I mean there's so many

dimbo61

Unless Russia, China or that other super power the Isle of Man invade this weekend I would worry about the here and now.
Where do you want to live ?
What can you afford ?
How much have you saved ?
Everything else may or may not happen

mither_2

Carl2510 said:

I’m guessing you mean you have a DIP/AIP not a mortgage offer as you can’t have that without having successfully had a bid accepted and gone through the process of a mortgage application.

Yes - that's right. I stand corrected.  
We have an DIP. 
We haven't got as far as a mortgage application yet as we keep getting outbid. 

mither_2

Getting_greyer said:

I mean there's so many

There is a lot of uncertainty. 
I can't help thinking some people are panicking trying to get anything whilst they can. 
There will be a lot of people trading up from flats to houses in London. Not sure who is buying the flats though.