Pension recovery from covid

garmeg

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Looking at my crystallised SIPP, I am down 6% from when i crystallised it in 2019 and down 15% from its February 2020 peak. It was 40% down from February at its worst (having ASEI Aberdeen Standard Equity Income and TMPL Temple Bar ITs didnt help alongside too much UK generally) so it is recovering.

Large movements like this do make it hard to make a decision about when to retire. Guess I will be a perpetual "One More Year" employee.

If it was me, I would consider a more defensive portfolio. Now that things calmed down could be a good time. In March/April would have been bad time. 

Potentially this fund has to last 30 years plus as i am 56 so needs a high equity allocation.

Maybe 80% in equity ETF and keep 20% in cash as bonds not good value now.

Something like VWRL or the HSBC and Fidelity ETFs?

[Deleted User]

garmeg said:

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Looking at my crystallised SIPP, I am down 6% from when i crystallised it in 2019 and down 15% from its February 2020 peak. It was 40% down from February at its worst (having ASEI Aberdeen Standard Equity Income and TMPL Temple Bar ITs didnt help alongside too much UK generally) so it is recovering.

Large movements like this do make it hard to make a decision about when to retire. Guess I will be a perpetual "One More Year" employee.

If it was me, I would consider a more defensive portfolio. Now that things calmed down could be a good time. In March/April would have been bad time. 

Potentially this fund has to last 30 years plus as i am 56 so needs a high equity allocation.

Maybe 80% in equity ETF and keep 20% in cash as bonds not good value now.

Something like VWRL or the HSBC and Fidelity ETFs?

They are all good vehicles.   

You are the best person to figure out your allocation. Obviously you’ve experienced some drastic events, albeit short term. 

I really like Bernstein’s “investing for adults” series. It has books on risks and asset allocation. Helps to make an informed decision.  Lots of good nuggets of information. 

garmeg

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Looking at my crystallised SIPP, I am down 6% from when i crystallised it in 2019 and down 15% from its February 2020 peak. It was 40% down from February at its worst (having ASEI Aberdeen Standard Equity Income and TMPL Temple Bar ITs didnt help alongside too much UK generally) so it is recovering.

Large movements like this do make it hard to make a decision about when to retire. Guess I will be a perpetual "One More Year" employee.

If it was me, I would consider a more defensive portfolio. Now that things calmed down could be a good time. In March/April would have been bad time. 

Potentially this fund has to last 30 years plus as i am 56 so needs a high equity allocation.

Maybe 80% in equity ETF and keep 20% in cash as bonds not good value now.

Something like VWRL or the HSBC and Fidelity ETFs?

They are all good vehicles.   

You are the best person to figure out your allocation. Obviously you’ve experienced some drastic events, albeit short term. 

I really like Bernstein’s “investing for adults” series. It has books on risks and asset allocation. Helps to make an informed decision.  Lots of good nuggets of information. 

Struggling to find the EPIC for HSBC and Fidelity. I assume I have tne correct Vanguard fund.

Thrugelmir

Prism said:

garmeg said:

OldMusicGuy said:

I set up my portfolio to avoid large downward movements accepting I would lose out on rapid growth during a recovery. That's because I am newly retired and need to protect what I have rather than grow it. I also hold a much higher proportion of cash in my SIPP than most would because I am very concerned about sequence of returns risk and am also very risk averse.

My portfolio was down around 11% from its February high at some of the lowest points of the drops and is currently just under 1.5% above the Feb high. That performance suits my risk profile and investment objectives.

Care to please share what funds you hold because it may be suitable for my early retirement plans? Certainly need to reduce my pension volatility going forwards. 

Otherwise my job is going to be like Royston Vasey. I'll never leave ...

maybe a touch of alternative stuff like infrastructure.

Even that's pricey now. Renewables are likewise generally trading at substantial premiums. Best route into these is by investing into new IPO's and floatations.  Energy prices are falling in particular those for solar power. 
Not entirely comfortable with a large exposure to China. Though looking ahead. Might well be the way to go. 

scaredofdebt

Deleted_User said:

scaredofdebt said:

I'm a bit gutted as I saw this pandemic coming and moved everything out of stocks and into cash, so althought I avoided the drop I didn't get back into the market as I couldn't see it recovering with all the uncertainty.

So I am about where I was in February but could have made 20% or so!

Back in now, hope it rises more on news of vaccines etc.

(most of mine is in foreign stocks)

And this is precisely why we should stay invested. Guessing once is possible. You need to time it right twice to benefit. The probability of doing that is zilch. 

I disagree and no "guessing" was involved.

The news coming out of China in Jan/Feb made it pretty clear this was coming, I moved out of stocks as soon as the first UK case was confirmed.

I'm fairly close to retirement so partly moved into cash in case of a long depression.  Normally I'd have moved back into the market as soon as the fall had occured but I didn't due to my age. 

The "experts" say markets hate uncertainty, doesn't seem to apply to the pandemic though, still plenty of uncertainty out there.

cfw1994

garmeg said:

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Looking at my crystallised SIPP, I am down 6% from when i crystallised it in 2019 and down 15% from its February 2020 peak. It was 40% down from February at its worst (having ASEI Aberdeen Standard Equity Income and TMPL Temple Bar ITs didnt help alongside too much UK generally) so it is recovering.

Large movements like this do make it hard to make a decision about when to retire. Guess I will be a perpetual "One More Year" employee.

If it was me, I would consider a more defensive portfolio. Now that things calmed down could be a good time. In March/April would have been bad time. 

Potentially this fund has to last 30 years plus as i am 56 so needs a high equity allocation.

Maybe 80% in equity ETF and keep 20% in cash as bonds not good value now.

Something like VWRL or the HSBC and Fidelity ETFs?

A friend told me his FA (I have no idea if an IFA or FA) had suggested 15yr gilts were going to take a drop some time back.   Some of my “less risky” money is in a blackrock 25yr gilt tracker: it looked better than the similar bond option I had.  I left it there....

I can now see the past year has managed to muster 7.5% growth, which I am happy with. 

Partly makes me wonder where finance “specialists” get their ideas from!

OldMusicGuy

garmeg said:

Care to please share what funds you hold because it may be suitable for my early retirement plans? Certainly need to reduce my pension volatility going forwards. 

Otherwise my job is going to be like Royston Vasey. I'll never leave ...

My SIPP is in 3 multi-asset funds from the popular providers frequently mentioned on this site. The core holding is a VLS fund but I have two others to spread the funds (my SIPP is a good size), reduce the UK exposure of VLS a bit and to get to my chosen equity/bond split. I also hold over 20% in cash right now, which helped reduce the losses but is obviously a drag on recovery. I'll keep that high level of cash until my wife and I reach SP age and then I will most likely switch more into investments. We are using savings and UFPLS to fund early retirement. 

Thrugelmir

cfw1994 said:

garmeg said:

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Looking at my crystallised SIPP, I am down 6% from when i crystallised it in 2019 and down 15% from its February 2020 peak. It was 40% down from February at its worst (having ASEI Aberdeen Standard Equity Income and TMPL Temple Bar ITs didnt help alongside too much UK generally) so it is recovering.

Large movements like this do make it hard to make a decision about when to retire. Guess I will be a perpetual "One More Year" employee.

If it was me, I would consider a more defensive portfolio. Now that things calmed down could be a good time. In March/April would have been bad time. 

Potentially this fund has to last 30 years plus as i am 56 so needs a high equity allocation.

Maybe 80% in equity ETF and keep 20% in cash as bonds not good value now.

Something like VWRL or the HSBC and Fidelity ETFs?

A friend told me his FA (I have no idea if an IFA or FA) had suggested 15yr gilts were going to take a drop some time back.   Some of my “less risky” money is in a blackrock 25yr gilt tracker: it looked better than the similar bond option I had.  I left it there....

I can now see the past year has managed to muster 7.5% growth, which I am happy with. 

Partly makes me wonder where finance “specialists” get their ideas from!

Gilts offer fixed yields to redemption.  They don't offer growth potential. Other than reinvestment of the income. Market prices will fluctuate daily won't impact the eventual outcome. 

[Deleted User]

scaredofdebt said:

Deleted_User said:

scaredofdebt said:

I'm a bit gutted as I saw this pandemic coming and moved everything out of stocks and into cash, so althought I avoided the drop I didn't get back into the market as I couldn't see it recovering with all the uncertainty.

So I am about where I was in February but could have made 20% or so!

Back in now, hope it rises more on news of vaccines etc.

(most of mine is in foreign stocks)

And this is precisely why we should stay invested. Guessing once is possible. You need to time it right twice to benefit. The probability of doing that is zilch. 

I disagree and no "guessing" was involved.

The news coming out of China in Jan/Feb made it pretty clear this was coming, I moved out of stocks as soon as the first UK case was confirmed.

I'm fairly close to retirement so partly moved into cash in case of a long depression.  Normally I'd have moved back into the market as soon as the fall had occured but I didn't due to my age. 

The "experts" say markets hate uncertainty, doesn't seem to apply to the pandemic though, still plenty of uncertainty out there.

Hindsight is 20/20. 

If you think back to January, yes we knew about Coronovirus. But then on our memory we had SARS, MERS, swine flu, ebola, AIDs, bird flu, mad cow disease, H2N2, H3N2, H5N1 and a bunch of other outbreaks.  Epidemics in the 50s killed way more people. None of these saw markets react in this way. There are reasons for that but suggesting you did not do any guessing by withdrawing the money is wrong. 

“Normally I would move back, etc... but didn’t because of my age”.  And you think NOW is safe to move back in? Did you get younger? 

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir said:

cfw1994 said:

garmeg said:

Deleted_User said:

garmeg said:

Looking at my crystallised SIPP, I am down 6% from when i crystallised it in 2019 and down 15% from its February 2020 peak. It was 40% down from February at its worst (having ASEI Aberdeen Standard Equity Income and TMPL Temple Bar ITs didnt help alongside too much UK generally) so it is recovering.

Large movements like this do make it hard to make a decision about when to retire. Guess I will be a perpetual "One More Year" employee.

If it was me, I would consider a more defensive portfolio. Now that things calmed down could be a good time. In March/April would have been bad time. 

Potentially this fund has to last 30 years plus as i am 56 so needs a high equity allocation.

Maybe 80% in equity ETF and keep 20% in cash as bonds not good value now.

Something like VWRL or the HSBC and Fidelity ETFs?

A friend told me his FA (I have no idea if an IFA or FA) had suggested 15yr gilts were going to take a drop some time back.   Some of my “less risky” money is in a blackrock 25yr gilt tracker: it looked better than the similar bond option I had.  I left it there....

I can now see the past year has managed to muster 7.5% growth, which I am happy with. 

Partly makes me wonder where finance “specialists” get their ideas from!

Gilts offer fixed yields to redemption.  They don't offer growth potential. Other than reinvestment of the income. Market prices will fluctuate daily won't impact the eventual outcome. 

If you look at a chart of historic returns for a gilt fund over the last 30 years you will find that the total return far exceeds the yields. What was the reason for that difference?