Boris announcement on new deposit scheme?

Crashy_Time

waamo said:

House prices are soaring currently. They have hit record highs and are predict to rise even further https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/oct/19/average-asking-price-for-homes-in-britain-hits-record-high

Now is an excellent time to buy before they rocket further skyward. Massive house price inflation is on the cards.

Asking prices, LOL.
https://www.todaysconveyancer.co.uk/main-news/property-transactions-dip-wales/
Depending where you are in the country the stats are going to be all over the place, asking price stats with collapsed volumes are meaningless to the average seller.

Crashy_Time

Salemicus said:

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

No, what are your predictions for house prices? What will be the percentage change in UK house prices between now and October 2021?

As you said yourself no one can predict this, so it is strange that a post or two later you ask for a prediction?! The fact that we are in a very leveraged bubble with many supports required to keep it from popping is obvious though, even to charlatans and fools.

Just because I think predicting prices is nonsense, doesn't mean that you do. You are the one who keeps claiming that prices are crashing/will crash, not me.

It is fascinating that despite your rhetoric, you don't actually expect any fall in prices. What a performance!

So why did you sell your place to rent instead, you odd duck?

You seem to be getting yourself tied in knots a bit, you don`t really know what point you are trying to argue do you, just say anything that says we are not in a bursting bubble, LOL. Where did I say I didn`t expect any fall in prices, LOL.

Salemicus

You said yourself, in the quote above, that no one can predict whether house prices will fall or by how much.

But OK, you've changed your mind. No problem. How much do you expect house prices to fall over the next year? Or the next 5 years if you prefer?

But of course you won't answer. It's very obvious that you aren't serious. If you were you'd make a concrete, testable prediction.

Crashy_Time

Salemicus said:

You said yourself, in the quote above, that no one can predict whether house prices will fall or by how much.

But OK, you've changed your mind. No problem. How much do you expect house prices to fall over the next year? Or the next 5 years if you prefer?

But of course you won't answer. It's very obvious that you aren't serious. If you were you'd make a concrete, testable prediction.

No, I said no one can predict the % change with any great accuracy. 

Salemicus

Don't hide behind bogus claims about accuracy. Just say "I predict a fall of 20-40%" or "I predict a fall of at least 30%" or whatever you believe will happen over the next year. Any concrete prediction. Then in twelve months' time, anyone can see whether you were right or wrong.

But of course you never will.

Crashy_Time

Salemicus said:

Don't hide behind bogus claims about accuracy. Just say "I predict a fall of 20-40%" or "I predict a fall of at least 30%" or whatever you believe will happen over the next year. Any concrete prediction. Then in twelve months' time, anyone can see whether you were right or wrong.

But of course you never will.

Why don`t you tell us how much the market will rise in the next year, then anyone can see if you are tied in knots or if you actually have a point to make?

Angela_D_3

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

Crashy_Time said:

BTW I would love to know how sky high prices benefit "Homeowners" (who we are told by the wise heads on here like to nest down for DECADES when they spend half a million on a Lego Hutch?) or people hoping to buy a house! Genuinely confused by your logic, and on a money saving site as well, LOL. You really couldn`t make it up.......

What does this have to do with it?

I agree with you that lower house prices would be a good thing. The government white paper loosening planning regulations is a good start, but they need to go much further. Unfortunately, in this area as with so many others, we are in a weird situation where the government is restricting supply (our absurd planning laws) and subsidising demand (HTB etc) and then people are confused as to why prices are unaffordable. Yes, it's bad for pretty much everyone. 

But whether high house prices are desirable has very little to do with whether house prices will fall. Peace in the Middle East would be desirable. Doesn't mean it will happen. The trajectory of house prices is set by supply and demand, not by how we would like prices to move.

You hop from foot to foot with your absurd claims, first claiming that prices are crashing, then that they will crash at some future unspecified point, then that they have already crashed but it's masked by volume, etc, etc, always refusing to give any specific predictions or stick to any one claim under serious scrutiny. And when under pressure, you retreat to this position - claiming that high house prices are a bad thing. And I believe this is the core of your position. You really, really want prices to crash, and therefore it must be about to happen, any day now. And so when people disagree that prices will fall, it must be because they want prices to be high. It couldn't possibly be a legitimate disagreement.

So how much people can borrow has nothing to do with house prices, and neither does sentiment? Let`s see how things pan out when everyone knows someone who has made a loss with property.

For every one person who dies make a loss or not much profit and that has been me in the past,  there’s literally hundreds who’ve done very nicely thank you out of the whole thing.  

Salemicus

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

Don't hide behind bogus claims about accuracy. Just say "I predict a fall of 20-40%" or "I predict a fall of at least 30%" or whatever you believe will happen over the next year. Any concrete prediction. Then in twelve months' time, anyone can see whether you were right or wrong.

But of course you never will.

Why don`t you tell us how much the market will rise in the next year, then anyone can see if you are tied in knots or if you actually have a point to make?

As I've already told you, I have no predictions. I don't claim to have any crystal ball.

You are the one claiming to know that the market will crash. And my point is that you don't know what you're talking about. And that's why you won't make any specific predictions. You just want the license to barge into every thread giving people terrible financial advice regarding house prices.

But in the end, what matters isn't our predictions on a forum like this, but how we operationalise them. Because posting a specific prediction here - although requiring more bravery than you possess - isn't the bar. Talk is still cheap. If you do ever make a prediction, I'll tell you that if you're so sure, go bet on it. And if you don't want to bet on it, or don't want to bet more than a token sum, then it follows that you aren't confident in your beliefs. Betting is a tax on nonsense. I don't mean a literal bet - you could short property ETFs, or whatever.

But by this measure, you're braver than you appear, because you did make a prediction, implicitly. You sold your property in order to rent. How's that working out for you? How much capital appreciation have you missed out on? How much rent have you paid in the meantime? What have you learned from this experience?

Crashy_Time

Salemicus said:

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

Don't hide behind bogus claims about accuracy. Just say "I predict a fall of 20-40%" or "I predict a fall of at least 30%" or whatever you believe will happen over the next year. Any concrete prediction. Then in twelve months' time, anyone can see whether you were right or wrong.

But of course you never will.

Why don`t you tell us how much the market will rise in the next year, then anyone can see if you are tied in knots or if you actually have a point to make?

As I've already told you, I have no predictions. I don't claim to have any crystal ball.

You are the one claiming to know that the market will crash. And my point is that you don't know what you're talking about. And that's why you won't make any specific predictions. You just want the license to barge into every thread giving people terrible financial advice regarding house prices.

But in the end, what matters isn't our predictions on a forum like this, but how we operationalise them. Because posting a specific prediction here - although requiring more bravery than you possess - isn't the bar. Talk is still cheap. If you do ever make a prediction, I'll tell you that if you're so sure, go bet on it. And if you don't want to bet on it, or don't want to bet more than a token sum, then it follows that you aren't confident in your beliefs. Betting is a tax on nonsense. I don't mean a literal bet - you could short property ETFs, or whatever.

But by this measure, you're braver than you appear, because you did make a prediction, implicitly. You sold your property in order to rent. How's that working out for you? How much capital appreciation have you missed out on? How much rent have you paid in the meantime? What have you learned from this experience?

You sound rattled, are you heavily invested in property? Don`t tell me your portfolio is Manchester based?

Crashy_Time

Angela_D_3 said:

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

Crashy_Time said:

BTW I would love to know how sky high prices benefit "Homeowners" (who we are told by the wise heads on here like to nest down for DECADES when they spend half a million on a Lego Hutch?) or people hoping to buy a house! Genuinely confused by your logic, and on a money saving site as well, LOL. You really couldn`t make it up.......

What does this have to do with it?

I agree with you that lower house prices would be a good thing. The government white paper loosening planning regulations is a good start, but they need to go much further. Unfortunately, in this area as with so many others, we are in a weird situation where the government is restricting supply (our absurd planning laws) and subsidising demand (HTB etc) and then people are confused as to why prices are unaffordable. Yes, it's bad for pretty much everyone. 

But whether high house prices are desirable has very little to do with whether house prices will fall. Peace in the Middle East would be desirable. Doesn't mean it will happen. The trajectory of house prices is set by supply and demand, not by how we would like prices to move.

You hop from foot to foot with your absurd claims, first claiming that prices are crashing, then that they will crash at some future unspecified point, then that they have already crashed but it's masked by volume, etc, etc, always refusing to give any specific predictions or stick to any one claim under serious scrutiny. And when under pressure, you retreat to this position - claiming that high house prices are a bad thing. And I believe this is the core of your position. You really, really want prices to crash, and therefore it must be about to happen, any day now. And so when people disagree that prices will fall, it must be because they want prices to be high. It couldn't possibly be a legitimate disagreement.

So how much people can borrow has nothing to do with house prices, and neither does sentiment? Let`s see how things pan out when everyone knows someone who has made a loss with property.

For every one person who dies make a loss or not much profit and that has been me in the past,  there’s literally hundreds who’ve done very nicely thank you out of the whole thing.  

How someone fared historically in a property bubble won`t benefit someone buying now, just as trying to copy Warren Buffet`s historical trades won`t make you rich now. As transactions drop and the headline average price gets skewed by the smaller number of bubble priced properties that sell then less and less people will be able to achieve this high average bubble price for their property.