Autumn Stock Market Crashes / Second wave

bigadaj

bowlhead99 said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

ZingPowZing said:

When the boss of the FED said that QE could go on "for as long as necessary," he wasn't kidding.

He might like to think that but the rest of the world might not. i.e. dollar will lose its reserve currency status, then the USA won't know what's hit them.

Thrugelmir said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

ZingPowZing said:

When the boss of the FED said that QE could go on "for as long as necessary," he wasn't kidding.

He might like to think that but the rest of the world might not. i.e. dollar will lose its reserve currency status, then the USA won't know what's hit them.

Mantle is slowly slipping. Trump knows it only too well. The Chinese will ultimately kick the US off the top perch. Empires rise and fall. 

Of course, every time the Yuan weakens to over 7 to the dollar (even though its weakness may be driven by his own brash threats about slapping tariffs all over everything the Chinese produce), Trump rails against China for being a 'manipulator' and how it's not fair that their rmb-priced products cost relatively few dollars for international customers to acquire.

When it suits him (whether for making US exports more attractive to foreigners, or for his family holding companies receiving more dollars for every pound spent at his Scottish golf resort) he is really keen on the dollar not being too strong and says he would much prefer the yuan/rmb to be less weak  - you wouldn't generally hear him say they deserve a strong currency, because he would worry that people might infer that he's implying they are a great strong nation like the US, but basically he doesn't want people to be able to buy chinese products cheaply and easily, so he labels them crooks and rogues if they dare have a weak currency.

But of course if the yuan-rmb does gain a greater international following and become a defacto global reserve currency and substantially stronger, with the outcome that dollars were significantly weaker and less able to purchase all the world's goods as easily as they can today, he would say that was a disaster too and that the Chinese were evil currency manipulators who didn't play fair etc etc.  One imagines / hopes he will not still be at the helm when it happens, so he can just sit in the background and tweet about how everything is terrible under every presidency but his own.

Forgetting about Trump are you saying that the Chinese don't 'manipulate' their currency, as they only allow it to move within a narrow band.

Prism

EdGasketTheSecond said:

It would have to be a Yuan backed by gold. Fiat won't be trusted ever again.

Trusted (or not) by who? Most people couldn't care less about printing money, have no idea that it used to be matched to gold and think Fiat is a car brand. Unless of course you think the developed world is going to experience hyper inflation when we can't even get normal 2% inflation reliably (yes I know you don't trust CPIH)

Besides, QE is a loan right? It eventually needs to be paid back and the money destroyed.

Kendall80

Prism said:

Besides, QE is a loan right? It eventually needs to be paid back and the money destroyed.

Maybe not. The debt could be written off.

ElephantBoy57

sebtomato said:

As a second Covid-19 wave in the Autumn/Winter looks very likely, I guess we can brace ourselves for another stock market crash.

But wasn't the stock market crash caused by the lockdown? Some countries have hardly stopped working at all, the UK cannot afford another lockdown.

I don't believe another COVID wave will happen, not in the same numbers. But what effect will 50,000 vulnerable people dying of COVID have? Could it save the NHS money in the long run?

EdGasketTheSecond

ElephantBoy57 said:

sebtomato said:

As a second Covid-19 wave in the Autumn/Winter looks very likely, I guess we can brace ourselves for another stock market crash.

I don't believe another COVID wave will happen, not in the same numbers. But what effect will 50,000 vulnerable people dying of COVID have? Could it save the NHS money in the long run?

Not to mention save the gov't a few bob in pension payments. There's always a silver lining if you look hard enough.

Thrugelmir

ZingPowZing said:

Mantle is slowly slipping. Trump knows it only too well. The Chinese will ultimately kick the US off the top perch. Empires rise and fall.  Thrugelmir

Complete nonsense. 

Chinese outnumber USA citizens 7/2.

 When the Chinese economy overtakes the US (c2040) the average American will still be three times more bankable than his Chinese counterpart.
There is an old saying in Silicon Valley, "there are no have nots, only have laters." 

The list of US assets that the Chinese own and control continues to steadily grow. 

bigadaj

Thrugelmir said:

ZingPowZing said:

Mantle is slowly slipping. Trump knows it only too well. The Chinese will ultimately kick the US off the top perch. Empires rise and fall.  Thrugelmir

Complete nonsense. 

Chinese outnumber USA citizens 7/2.

 When the Chinese economy overtakes the US (c2040) the average American will still be three times more bankable than his Chinese counterpart.
There is an old saying in Silicon Valley, "there are no have nots, only have laters." 

The list of US assets that the Chinese own and control continues to steadily grow. 

The amount of us debt that the chinese hold is significant and a consideration for both sides in trade and diplomatic dealings.

EdGasketTheSecond

Central banks increase gold purchases fearing financial crash, from June 2020:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2020/06/12/central-banks-set-for-gold-rush--over-financial-crisis-fears/

k6chris

Winter's coming......

MK62

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Central banks increase gold purchases fearing financial crash, from June 2020:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2020/06/12/central-banks-set-for-gold-rush--over-financial-crisis-fears/

That piece states "The survey showed that 20% of the banks that responded to the survey said their central bank would likely increase their gold holdings".......so in other words, 80% of those who responded said something else....

Of the 150 central banks surveyed, 51 responded......and 20% of those said they would.....so around 10 out of 150.....hardly conclusive, especially when we don't know which central banks make up this 10, nor to what extent these banks will "likely increase their gold holdings". We also have no idea what the 99 who didn't respond are up to with their gold holdings, or really what the other 41who did respond are actually doing with theirs (other than not increasing them)