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Autumn Stock Market Crashes / Second wave
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Linton said:sebtomato said:MinuteNoodles said:sebtomato said:As a second Covid-19 wave in the Autumn/Winter looks very likely, I guess we can brace ourselves for another stock market crash.Nope. The markets already factored the possibility in months ago, a second pandemic is factored in the price already.Read the following and inwardly digest.
I am pretty sure that if Covid-19 triggers some large scale lockdowns in several countries, the stock market will crash again.
Do you really believe that you have been granted a special insight into the future not available to most other people?
Personally, I have not got the faintest idea as to what will happen. Therefore it makes sense for me to invest broadly so that barring global economic collapse I wont get wiped out.
My current conclusion is: the US tech companies are doing very well, because there are no other places to invest money. It's just supply and demand, as opposed to the actual financial performance of those companies.2 -
sebtomato said:Linton said:sebtomato said:MinuteNoodles said:sebtomato said:As a second Covid-19 wave in the Autumn/Winter looks very likely, I guess we can brace ourselves for another stock market crash.Nope. The markets already factored the possibility in months ago, a second pandemic is factored in the price already.Read the following and inwardly digest.
I am pretty sure that if Covid-19 triggers some large scale lockdowns in several countries, the stock market will crash again.
Do you really believe that you have been granted a special insight into the future not available to most other people?
Personally, I have not got the faintest idea as to what will happen. Therefore it makes sense for me to invest broadly so that barring global economic collapse I wont get wiped out.
2) My current conclusion is: the US tech companies are doing very well, because there are no other places to invest money. It's just supply and demand, as opposed to the actual financial performance of those companies.
2) Share prices are always determined by supply and demand, there is nothing else. Supply and demand is partially driven by actual financial performance but more often, and particularly at the moment, by people's belief in future financial performance. Consider Tesla.
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The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.
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EdGasketTheSecond said:The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.
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My advice would be to ride whatever storm there may be and carry on investing, the market will bounce back, but will do slowly.
Save £12k in 2019 #154 - £14,826.60/£12kSave £12k in 2020 #128 - £4,155.62/£10k0 -
Sailtheworld said:EdGasketTheSecond said:The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.
A rising tide floats all boats, as they say, so QE and stimulus money has supported equities generally from being where they would be if there hadn't been QE and stimulus. But it doesn't seem irrational to price companies higher if the risk of their failure is being countered with countermeasures.
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EdGasketTheSecond said:The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.2
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Linton said:EdGasketTheSecond said:The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.
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EdGasketTheSecond said:Linton said:EdGasketTheSecond said:The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.0
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EdGasketTheSecond said:Linton said:EdGasketTheSecond said:The markets aren't factoring anything in at the moment; they are simply in a bubble created by QE and stimulus. Real returns on bonds are negative so the excess currency finds its way into the stockmarket which is in complete disconnect with reality.0
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