Autumn Stock Market Crashes / Second wave

London7766551

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?

Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

I won't pretend to understand the global markets, so this is just my humble opinion.  But it seems to me, that next year the reality of so many losing their jobs, less spending and further businesses going to the wall, will result in a lot of people that can't pay for anything. The markets will come to see this and panic (rightly so). I'd say there will be about a 20%-30% drop in March or so 2021. Possible 50%-60% over the next few years if the virus runs out of control and there is no vaccine for years and years.

London7766551

Sebo027 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

There's a cult following who are vocally convinced by this, many from visiting websites like this one: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ But, I'm not sure how much they understand what they are talking about, to me it's alot of repeating sound bites. 
This is an interesting video, alas I don't claim to understand half of what's being said: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3lP3BhvnSo&t=122s

Oh yes these guys have been going for years, predicting a crash every year and global meltdown. I will believe it when I see it.

EdGasketTheSecond

DiggerUK said:

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?
Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

Shorting in the manner you outline is one such play to utilise. If that level of shorting is decided on by those worrying about times ahead I suggest gold is the short play to call.

Gold is the ultimate short..._

No, gold got taken down in March along with equities. Lately it has been more in sync with equities than moving in the opposite direction. It will get taken down in the next crash too.

DiggerUK

EdGasketTheSecond said:

DiggerUK said:

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?
Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

Shorting in the manner you outline is one such play to utilise. If that level of shorting is decided on by those worrying about times ahead I suggest gold is the short play to call.

Gold is the ultimate short..._

No, gold got taken down in March along with equities. Lately it has been more in sync with equities than moving in the opposite direction. It will get taken down in the next crash too.

Buying gold  is the ultimate short play against fx, equities, land, bonds and Lego..._

AlanP_2

London7766551 said:

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?

Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

I won't pretend to understand the global markets, so this is just my humble opinion.  But it seems to me, that next year the reality of so many losing their jobs, less spending and further businesses going to the wall, will result in a lot of people that can't pay for anything. The markets will come to see this and panic (rightly so). I'd say there will be about a 20%-30% drop in March or so 2021. Possible 50%-60% over the next few years if the virus runs out of control and there is no vaccine for years and years.

Nor do I, but there is, and has been in the past, a lack of connection between unemployment rates and investment returns.

Look at UK unemployment in early 1980s and what happened to a global market (in this case the US)

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_in_the_United_Kingdom&psig=AOvVaw32mOTkhgQiAYyjPjd7oKod&ust=1598520209318000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCMDGhvzFuOsCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAI

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-market-history-1980s-bull-112200931.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALNlROmjr1Rf9pPyg9z4emIqCYgi6cod5lwkbR9l07GIRBiaVciJzIaYCvRET8oD8Y21zvaz0dKam-CCDrEFMnXothwJVS7dT-UrQFd5E0aXxJh6efpJgDee3WOf_HJgztBkyc5_DL7NNrtxG8p9vVS2MjaubEoCcAh97C-G-0Zn

Latest predictions I have seen are talking about a 9% unemployment rate in the UK which is lower than seen in the 80s.

The reality is more complex than a straightforward Unemployment Up = Markets Down. Inflation plays a part, as does fiscal policy, the structure of the economy and how people / businesses react and adapt to what unfolds.

EdGasketTheSecond

DiggerUK said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

DiggerUK said:

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?
Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

Shorting in the manner you outline is one such play to utilise. If that level of shorting is decided on by those worrying about times ahead I suggest gold is the short play to call.

Gold is the ultimate short..._

No, gold got taken down in March along with equities. Lately it has been more in sync with equities than moving in the opposite direction. It will get taken down in the next crash too.

Buying gold  is the ultimate short play against fx, equities, land, bonds and Lego..._

Sorry but the ultimate short play against equities is a proper short on an equity index. Gold may or may not move in the same direction as equities so cannot possibly be the ultimate short play you suggest.

DiggerUK

EdGasketTheSecond said:

DiggerUK said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

DiggerUK said:

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?
Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

Shorting in the manner you outline is one such play to utilise. If that level of shorting is decided on by those worrying about times ahead I suggest gold is the short play to call.

Gold is the ultimate short..._

No, gold got taken down in March along with equities. Lately it has been more in sync with equities than moving in the opposite direction. It will get taken down in the next crash too.

Buying gold  is the ultimate short play against fx, equities, land, bonds and Lego..._

Sorry but the ultimate short play against equities is a proper short on an equity index. Gold may or may not move in the same direction as equities so cannot possibly be the ultimate short play you suggest.

So tell me Grasshopper, why exactly do you urge posters to go long gold? What are they going short against, you have much to learn..._

EdGasketTheSecond

I never suggested gold as a short for anything. It is a good asset class to own in the current macro environment; probably the best apart from silver. But that doesn't mean it won't drop some if equities are hit.

Sailtheworld

DiggerUK said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

DiggerUK said:

AlanP_2 said:

London7766551 said:

I think it will happen at some point next year now. Everything is artificial with money being printed and the full effect has not hit yet.

What will happen next year? A 20,30,40,50,60,70% drop in global equity values?
Are you backing your hunch by shorting the index / indexes you think will fall?

Shorting in the manner you outline is one such play to utilise. If that level of shorting is decided on by those worrying about times ahead I suggest gold is the short play to call.

Gold is the ultimate short..._

No, gold got taken down in March along with equities. Lately it has been more in sync with equities than moving in the opposite direction. It will get taken down in the next crash too.

Buying gold  is the ultimate short play against fx, equities, land, bonds and Lego..._

It's really not. If you want to short £ then you short £, if you want to short Microsoft then you short Microsoft...

If gold was the answer to all questions only a fool or someone desperate would sell. 

DiggerUK

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I never suggested gold as a short for anything. It is a good asset class to own in the current macro environment.........

You are correct, you have never suggested gold is a short play. In the populist understanding of a short play, buying gold is not a short. But in the greater picture "it's a short Jim" because it's a short against everything else out there..._