Tools to plan for retirement?

gm0

Needs to be different.  This is a tough space.  I did some project work on digital tools for schemes that felt they had to rather than being enthusiastic.  And that is a simpler ask as they don't need flexible planning just projection based on conservative (regulated) assumptions.  Economics vs maintaining anything against the tax code are harsh.

Consumer tool examples:

FlexibleRetirementPlanner does montecarlo sim for SD ranges of parameters inflation, equity and minimal risk asset return, etc. and heatmaps the results for multiple runs.  Downloadable version is what I used on a PC for MC statistical sims to explore distribution of journeys and return sequences vs single run.  Decent functionality and heatmap plotter.  Basic UI.  That is "free" functionality (bar website ad support - limited post the PC software download).   Don't do less and expect to succeed.

You can do most things in Excel. But MC sim is fiddly unless you are a skilled Excel table person.  FRP has tools for sensitivity analysis and illustrating possible SORR impact which is *good* when you grow past the SIPP operator web drawdown calculators.  But it has a US focus (taxes) but zero that part out and it does something useful for anyone.

Web calculators for a single run at drawdown vs a pot are frankly a dime a dozen.  More or less transparent about regulated or unregulated assumptions.  Something untrusted as a phone app that does that is utterly meh and the price is "free" and without a horrible data grabbing policy.

Firecalc/Firesim backtesting is fair enough but a lot of backtesting of the standard data sets has been done and there are good web and book write ups of the conclusions from these. Most people won't need to do tons of backtesting from scratch but some will want to reproduce for themselves and their own plan.

In general clever hidden functionality is not what we dream of.  Better non-US data would be nice. 

And it being an app on a small screen only would suck for a large target demographic of myopic middleaged retirees in or approaching drawdown.  Many of us like to keep our key personal and financial planning data off the cloud too

Flexible retirementplanner is online or downloadable.  Excel or free Office alternative is on your own device. 

Consider what is the value you add back to catch up and make your version which (let's assume) adds a couple of negatives on small screen, privacy, phone only for part of the target demographic) a better mousetrap. And then more again to be worth more than free (which the other one is).  Tax planning is a a bit of a nightmare to maintain and keep current if there is come back on it being right and most people including some commercial pension calculator tools stay away from it - but it us a need which is rather under served.

In general abstracting away complexity with clever app or "powered by machine learning" and a simplistic phone UI is not of itself helpful if we can't achieve *trust* in what you have done.  Consider why should I *trust* your implementation and assumptions and algo corner cutting without decent test cases or independently assured verification - of the version I am about to use.  An assurance model fits poorly with agile release of app versions.  If it's not assured then I expect rough answers but I also expect "free"

So you need something - combo of brand, test cases, sample regression pack "cases" that we can run.  Other tools don't have that either in many cases so people expect FREE and often try several out alongside Excel.  I would not pay more than buttons for a no-recourse, unvalidated tool - why would I when there are DIY and free ones to play the "do it two ways and see what the answer is "roughly".

Desirable

If a tool had sensitivity analysis, cashflow planning, decent datasets for CPI, gilts, equities, international equities, could cope with ISA recycling and unwrapped alongside pension drawdown, property/mortgage, pension and income and CGT tax code. LTA support. And was transparent about calculation and assumptions and easy to trace through.  IHT planning.   Some form of "sample models" and/or demonstrable actuarial verification.  All in an incrementally easy to load up with your case data app. That runs on a big screen with a big screen UI (not a phone screen UI with an acre of blank magenta) run on an android phone emulator on the PC.  Maintained against tax code changes. And cheap as chips

If you are competing with the IFA software vendors as a singleton - good luck with that.  If you are snazzy app developer doing an experimental front end to one such you might get a payday for doing the digital bit better than them - as an experiment.  But why would they cannibalise their via IFA revenues or share the bulk of it if you are just the sizzle and they are the maintained against legislation calculator steak.

Good luck thinking it through

cfw1994

Any progress, @samshort?  Happy to guinea pig things....well, the "very close to retirement" end of things