Suggestions for a speculative punt?

norsefox

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.

That is certainly true, but Tesla's stock valuation is miles above where traditional calculations would put it.
I bought a few shared at $400 early in November.  Fortunate timing of course, but a 35% gain for no change in the business, just an S&P list is quite something.

The general EV marketed has blown up in the last few weeks.
Nio - 97% in a month
Xpeng - 252% in a month
Switchbank Energy - 135% in a month
Li Auto - 138% in a month

There are numerous others.  There will be a correction to come, but even Jim Cramer has lost the plot on CNBC at what's going on in the market right now.

Username999

norsefox said:

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.

That is certainly true, but Tesla's stock valuation is miles above where traditional calculations would put it.
I bought a few shared at $400 early in November.  Fortunate timing of course, but a 35% gain for no change in the business, just an S&P list is quite something.

The general EV marketed has blown up in the last few weeks.
Nio - 97% in a month
Xpeng - 252% in a month
Switchbank Energy - 135% in a month
Li Auto - 138% in a month

There are numerous others.  There will be a correction to come, but even Jim Cramer has lost the plot on CNBC at what's going on in the market right now.

Maybe people are finally beginning to realise that ICE is dead and we will all be forced to drive EV, like it or not.

Shocking_Blue

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

Put a bit in CINE when they were low and now in a bit of profit. Newbie investor and thinking do I sell and take the £ now of hang on. Also have BP, TUI, MGGT, LLOY (each about 0.3% of portfolio), all up. Is it clever to get out now (about 16% up) (had planned to get rid of CINE when they got into profit but as they've recently flown up have kept on to them)?
Thanks. 

norsefox

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.

That is certainly true, but Tesla's stock valuation is miles above where traditional calculations would put it.
I bought a few shared at $400 early in November.  Fortunate timing of course, but a 35% gain for no change in the business, just an S&P list is quite something.

The general EV marketed has blown up in the last few weeks.
Nio - 97% in a month
Xpeng - 252% in a month
Switchbank Energy - 135% in a month
Li Auto - 138% in a month

There are numerous others.  There will be a correction to come, but even Jim Cramer has lost the plot on CNBC at what's going on in the market right now.

Maybe people are finally beginning to realise that ICE is dead and we will all be forced to drive EV, like it or not.

Oh, ICE is most definitely dead.  The jump in the market reflects China's determination to outlay ICE cars from 2035, and Biden's presidency certainly helps.  UK's ban by 2030 also consistent with the changes afoot.

The EV rally however has gone too far, a correction of some sort is due, but there will be huge gains to be made in the right stocks.

The traditional ICE companies have been asleep at the wheel, and have surrendered the lead to Tesla and other auto makers, but they will regain ground.  How NIO and Xpeng, who between them build 15,000 vehicles a quarter, can both have a higher market cap than BMW suggests some valuation problems somewhere...

Sailtheworld

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Personally, I would run a mile from a company that is burning through cash at a colossal rate and doesn’t have a product.

This is why it's important to understand what you are investing in..

In the case of Arrowhead, their cash burn is actually very conservative given their pipeline, and the pipeline is one of the big reasons to be invested here. What is more, they have plenty of cash to keep them going, especially with their recent partnership/deal with Takeda, which is (I believe) not yet taken fully into account, although there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that they will have it soon enough. The terms of deal they got with Takeda are unheard of in the sector, and that is because they have been bargaining from a position of relative strength. Why the strength? Well, simply put, their peers (Takeda et al) know and understand how powerful the science that Arrowhead wields is.

To understand why the science is so strong, you need to understand the basics of how it works. Our CEO gave some clues in Mondays conference call:

"First, we seek to choose only well-validated targets. These are gene targets, where consensus of experts agreed the reducing expression will likely have positive therapeutic benefits. By focusing on this, we believe we entered clinical studies with reduced biology and target risk relative to other candidates. Second, the RNAi mechanism and experience with the TRiM platform can provide additional wind at our back. As we continue to treat more patients with drug candidates built on the TRiM platform and see consistent activity and part of the safety profile, our confidence increases that other candidates targeting different genes will also be successful. RNAi doesn't care what gene has been silenced. Once we validate our ability to reduce expression of a given gene in a given cell type, we have confidence that we can replicate that in other gene targets. We believe this is a powerful and scalable concept that gives us confidence that a larger percentage of our candidates entering the clinic will ultimately become drugs compared to traditional -- compared to traditional small molecules."

You see, their business model is significantly different to that of other biotechs/pharma, and that is partly because of RNAi works/how easily they can find targets where this tech is highly likely to work. This is a very different modality to conventional small molecule biotechs, and gives ARWR a MASSIVE advantage over the competition.

The proof of the pudding is in the data, and the data is literally "off the charts". So while they don't have a commercial product, the data is showing extremely good efficiacy combined with a safety profile that (once again) small molecule companies simply can not match. ARWR's peers understand this (many others do not!), and this is why ARWR is now able to negotiate deals from a position of GREAT strength.

There is more to it than this, but I don't have the time right now to go into much more detail. Never the less, I think I have written enough here for others to get a flavor of why ARWR is such an undervalued gem of a company, and why I have effectively taken all my cash out of other individual companies and put it into ARWR!

Sure there is some risk, but ARWR is effectively running in a race where the competition has been nobbled! As a KOL cardiologist put it (just a week ago), paraphrased "We are entering a golden age of [RNAi] cardiovascular therapy".. and ARWR is the undisputed leader in that (RNAi) field right now. You only need to look what it did to Vertex's market cap just a few weeks back! There is even talk/rumors of "functional cures" in ARWR's HBV program that looks highly plausible given the reductions in harmful proteins - reductions that are unheard of previously. No one has managed to successfully treat HBV, let alone cure it. So, while it may not have a product, yet, IMHO it's just a matter of time. Did I mention how fast ARWR is?!

Edit to add:

If you consider that one successful/commercialized indication is (easily) worth the current market cap, and they plan to have 20-30 in clinical trials by 2023-2024. The risk/reward profile is truly amazing.

I just did a quick trawl through the Top 10 holdings of the biotech funds available in the UK and ARWR didn’t figure in any of them. Perhaps I'm missing something, but if it’s such a fantastic business, why do none of them hold it?

What does anyone making a punt know that the market doesn't - probably nothing. Do they have insider knowledge - probably not. Are they better at analysing data than the market - unlikely but perhaps.

That's the nature of a speculative punt - identifying a company that is undervalued by the market today but will be correctly valued tomorrow.

Sailtheworld

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.

That is certainly true, but Tesla's stock valuation is miles above where traditional calculations would put it.
I bought a few shared at $400 early in November.  Fortunate timing of course, but a 35% gain for no change in the business, just an S&P list is quite something.

The general EV marketed has blown up in the last few weeks.
Nio - 97% in a month
Xpeng - 252% in a month
Switchbank Energy - 135% in a month
Li Auto - 138% in a month

There are numerous others.  There will be a correction to come, but even Jim Cramer has lost the plot on CNBC at what's going on in the market right now.

Maybe people are finally beginning to realise that ICE is dead and we will all be forced to drive EV, like it or not.

Tesla's P/E is approaching 1000. That's looks like mania rather than a measured response to people swapping from petrol engines to electric engines which every man and his dog was expecting anyway.

Thrugelmir

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.

That is certainly true, but Tesla's stock valuation is miles above where traditional calculations would put it.
I bought a few shared at $400 early in November.  Fortunate timing of course, but a 35% gain for no change in the business, just an S&P list is quite something.

The general EV marketed has blown up in the last few weeks.
Nio - 97% in a month
Xpeng - 252% in a month
Switchbank Energy - 135% in a month
Li Auto - 138% in a month

There are numerous others.  There will be a correction to come, but even Jim Cramer has lost the plot on CNBC at what's going on in the market right now.

Maybe people are finally beginning to realise that ICE is dead and we will all be forced to drive EV, like it or not.

Who is going to fund the infrastructure cost?  

BrockStoker

Sailtheworld said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Personally, I would run a mile from a company that is burning through cash at a colossal rate and doesn’t have a product.

This is why it's important to understand what you are investing in..

In the case of Arrowhead, their cash burn is actually very conservative given their pipeline, and the pipeline is one of the big reasons to be invested here. What is more, they have plenty of cash to keep them going, especially with their recent partnership/deal with Takeda, which is (I believe) not yet taken fully into account, although there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that they will have it soon enough. The terms of deal they got with Takeda are unheard of in the sector, and that is because they have been bargaining from a position of relative strength. Why the strength? Well, simply put, their peers (Takeda et al) know and understand how powerful the science that Arrowhead wields is.

To understand why the science is so strong, you need to understand the basics of how it works. Our CEO gave some clues in Mondays conference call:

"First, we seek to choose only well-validated targets. These are gene targets, where consensus of experts agreed the reducing expression will likely have positive therapeutic benefits. By focusing on this, we believe we entered clinical studies with reduced biology and target risk relative to other candidates. Second, the RNAi mechanism and experience with the TRiM platform can provide additional wind at our back. As we continue to treat more patients with drug candidates built on the TRiM platform and see consistent activity and part of the safety profile, our confidence increases that other candidates targeting different genes will also be successful. RNAi doesn't care what gene has been silenced. Once we validate our ability to reduce expression of a given gene in a given cell type, we have confidence that we can replicate that in other gene targets. We believe this is a powerful and scalable concept that gives us confidence that a larger percentage of our candidates entering the clinic will ultimately become drugs compared to traditional -- compared to traditional small molecules."

You see, their business model is significantly different to that of other biotechs/pharma, and that is partly because of RNAi works/how easily they can find targets where this tech is highly likely to work. This is a very different modality to conventional small molecule biotechs, and gives ARWR a MASSIVE advantage over the competition.

The proof of the pudding is in the data, and the data is literally "off the charts". So while they don't have a commercial product, the data is showing extremely good efficiacy combined with a safety profile that (once again) small molecule companies simply can not match. ARWR's peers understand this (many others do not!), and this is why ARWR is now able to negotiate deals from a position of GREAT strength.

There is more to it than this, but I don't have the time right now to go into much more detail. Never the less, I think I have written enough here for others to get a flavor of why ARWR is such an undervalued gem of a company, and why I have effectively taken all my cash out of other individual companies and put it into ARWR!

Sure there is some risk, but ARWR is effectively running in a race where the competition has been nobbled! As a KOL cardiologist put it (just a week ago), paraphrased "We are entering a golden age of [RNAi] cardiovascular therapy".. and ARWR is the undisputed leader in that (RNAi) field right now. You only need to look what it did to Vertex's market cap just a few weeks back! There is even talk/rumors of "functional cures" in ARWR's HBV program that looks highly plausible given the reductions in harmful proteins - reductions that are unheard of previously. No one has managed to successfully treat HBV, let alone cure it. So, while it may not have a product, yet, IMHO it's just a matter of time. Did I mention how fast ARWR is?!

Edit to add:

If you consider that one successful/commercialized indication is (easily) worth the current market cap, and they plan to have 20-30 in clinical trials by 2023-2024. The risk/reward profile is truly amazing.

I just did a quick trawl through the Top 10 holdings of the biotech funds available in the UK and ARWR didn’t figure in any of them. Perhaps I'm missing something, but if it’s such a fantastic business, why do none of them hold it?

What does anyone making a punt know that the market doesn't - probably nothing. Do they have insider knowledge - probably not. Are they better at analysing data than the market - unlikely but perhaps.

That's the nature of a speculative punt - identifying a company that is undervalued by the market today but will be correctly valued tomorrow.

I really don't think that the models analysts use are capable of fully taking into account the implications of a disruptive company like Arrowhead that has a very different (and super-aggressive) business model the likes of which has never existed as far as I can tell.

From what I have seen, the models analyst uses even struggle with small molecule biotechs, where I have made significant gains (2-3x my investment in some cases), so what hope do they have when something like ARWR comes along? The models they use can take into account the finances, and give value to each indication in a pipeline (although from what I have seen the values allocated are often very conservative, and they don't take into account early stage indications), but they don't see the bigger picture, and take into account the disruptive effect a technology like RNAi is already having.

Arrowhead's unique "copy/paste" modality is unheard of - if it works in one indication, they can take that same drug, and make it work in another (that is how this tech works!). Simply by modifying the method of delivery (something that Arrowhead has become very clever at doing), they can take that same drug, and use it in a completely different tissue type to treat a different condition. This is a big part of what others are missing, and also why the other RNAi companies have struggled to see similar efficiacy (the delivery method is key here - and ARWR have perfected it/worked out all the bugs)!

This is why (IMHO) someone like me, who likes to see things from a completely different perspective compared to the rest of the heard, can get an advantage, leaving the rest of the world/Wall Street to play catch-up

BrockStoker

It's Arrowhead's peers that are in the best position to judge how good the tech is..

Very recent news in (posted by Mihaela on the Yahoo MB):

Amgen Ends Drug Collaboration With Cytokinetics
"Amgen will turn its focus on AMG 890, another heart failure pipeline drug in Phase 2 clinical trials" (ARWR+AMGN Drug)
Dr. David Reese, vice president of research and development at Amgen.

http://www.sfvbj.com/news/2020/nov/24/amgen-ends-drug-collaboration-cytokinetics/

This is a RAPIDLY developing trend. First was Vertex, who dropped it's own CF drug after ARWR's data was released, causing the stock to loose $12Bn in MC.

ARWR is slowly but surely sending shock-waves through the bio-pharma industry. Those who don't make deals with ARWR will simply be left behind. In the meantime, ARWR is edging ever closer to becoming Big Pharma ITSELF.

Edit to add news just in:

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Announces Closing of Agreement with Takeda
7:30 AM ET 11/25/20 | BusinessWire PASADENA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--November 25, 2020--

News like this is just going to get more frequent, and push up the share price. So, don't walk, RUN to grab some ARWR shares while they are still on sale! This may be the speculative punt thread, but ARWR is a lot more than just a "speculative punt", although I can understand why most would view it that way - dig a little deeper, and you'll see why that is not the case here!

norsefox

Thrugelmir said:

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

Username999 said:

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.

That is certainly true, but Tesla's stock valuation is miles above where traditional calculations would put it.
I bought a few shared at $400 early in November.  Fortunate timing of course, but a 35% gain for no change in the business, just an S&P list is quite something.

The general EV marketed has blown up in the last few weeks.
Nio - 97% in a month
Xpeng - 252% in a month
Switchbank Energy - 135% in a month
Li Auto - 138% in a month

There are numerous others.  There will be a correction to come, but even Jim Cramer has lost the plot on CNBC at what's going on in the market right now.

Maybe people are finally beginning to realise that ICE is dead and we will all be forced to drive EV, like it or not.

Who is going to fund the infrastructure cost?  

What does that question really mean?
EVs are going to replace ICEs one way or another.  The charging structure will be paid for between central government, local authorities, auto manufacturers, new and existing charging companies, existing providers like Shell and BP, robo taxi networks, and consumers.