Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm at the stage of my investing life where I don’t need to beat the market but I do have smallish holdings in GAM Star Disruptive Growth, Blackrock Next Generation Technology and Smith and Williamson Artificial Intelligence. These are run by managers who do seem to know what they are doing and I'm happy to leave stock picking to them. One of the very few individual stocks that I own is Sea Limited which has never made a profit but it does have a very popular product in SE Asia and could well become a behemoth.

I really doubt that the same can be said of most biotech startups.

You are absolutely right about most biotech start-ups. In fact, there are a lot of pump and dumb, and insiders trading in this sector. The stock price are very volatile. Many of them are penny stocks, so it is much easier to control the stock price to the certain direction they want to. For that reason, I have noticed that unless they know the stocks very well, not many institutional investors want to take part in biotech startups. Not to mention insider trading, and the role of the day traders. But "Arrowhead" is not in this category, althoguh people will need to do their own DD to invest in individual stock. They take their own gain but they will also need to take the pain (loss) in this decision making.

I found it that investing in innovative and disruptive technology are less riskier but more rewarding than innovation in invention in biotech. Look at how many of them have managed to take off. Example Palantir (PLTR) mentioned a few weeks ago on this thread and look at how they perform now. Classical examples the current Megacap stocks, EV stocks sucha s TSLA, NIO, XPENG, etc

Innovative and disruptive technology stock will normally get backed up by a big bucks making them less vulnarable in comparison to startup Biotech stock.

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Personally, I would run a mile from a company that is burning through cash at a colossal rate and doesn’t have a product.

This is why it's important to understand what you are investing in..

In the case of Arrowhead, their cash burn is actually very conservative given their pipeline, and the pipeline is one of the big reasons to be invested here. What is more, they have plenty of cash to keep them going, especially with their recent partnership/deal with Takeda, which is (I believe) not yet taken fully into account, although there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that they will have it soon enough. The terms of deal they got with Takeda are unheard of in the sector, and that is because they have been bargaining from a position of relative strength. Why the strength? Well, simply put, their peers (Takeda et al) know and understand how powerful the science that Arrowhead wields is.

To understand why the science is so strong, you need to understand the basics of how it works. Our CEO gave some clues in Mondays conference call:

"First, we seek to choose only well-validated targets. These are gene targets, where consensus of experts agreed the reducing expression will likely have positive therapeutic benefits. By focusing on this, we believe we entered clinical studies with reduced biology and target risk relative to other candidates. Second, the RNAi mechanism and experience with the TRiM platform can provide additional wind at our back. As we continue to treat more patients with drug candidates built on the TRiM platform and see consistent activity and part of the safety profile, our confidence increases that other candidates targeting different genes will also be successful. RNAi doesn't care what gene has been silenced. Once we validate our ability to reduce expression of a given gene in a given cell type, we have confidence that we can replicate that in other gene targets. We believe this is a powerful and scalable concept that gives us confidence that a larger percentage of our candidates entering the clinic will ultimately become drugs compared to traditional -- compared to traditional small molecules."

You see, their business model is significantly different to that of other biotechs/pharma, and that is partly because of RNAi works/how easily they can find targets where this tech is highly likely to work. This is a very different modality to conventional small molecule biotechs, and gives ARWR a MASSIVE advantage over the competition.

The proof of the pudding is in the data, and the data is literally "off the charts". So while they don't have a commercial product, the data is showing extremely good efficiacy combined with a safety profile that (once again) small molecule companies simply can not match. ARWR's peers understand this (many others do not!), and this is why ARWR is now able to negotiate deals from a position of GREAT strength.

There is more to it than this, but I don't have the time right now to go into much more detail. Never the less, I think I have written enough here for others to get a flavor of why ARWR is such an undervalued gem of a company, and why I have effectively taken all my cash out of other individual companies and put it into ARWR!

Sure there is some risk, but ARWR is effectively running in a race where the competition has been nobbled! As a KOL cardiologist put it (just a week ago), paraphrased "We are entering a golden age of [RNAi] cardiovascular therapy".. and ARWR is the undisputed leader in that (RNAi) field right now. You only need to look what it did to Vertex's market cap just a few weeks back! There is even talk/rumors of "functional cures" in ARWR's HBV program that looks highly plausible given the reductions in harmful proteins - reductions that are unheard of previously. No one has managed to successfully treat HBV, let alone cure it. So, while it may not have a product, yet, IMHO it's just a matter of time. Did I mention how fast ARWR is?!

Edit to add:

If you consider that one successful/commercialized indication is (easily) worth the current market cap, and they plan to have 20-30 in clinical trials by 2023-2024. The risk/reward profile is truly amazing.

csgohan4

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

Moe_The_Bartender

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Personally, I would run a mile from a company that is burning through cash at a colossal rate and doesn’t have a product.

This is why it's important to understand what you are investing in..

In the case of Arrowhead, their cash burn is actually very conservative given their pipeline, and the pipeline is one of the big reasons to be invested here. What is more, they have plenty of cash to keep them going, especially with their recent partnership/deal with Takeda, which is (I believe) not yet taken fully into account, although there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that they will have it soon enough. The terms of deal they got with Takeda are unheard of in the sector, and that is because they have been bargaining from a position of relative strength. Why the strength? Well, simply put, their peers (Takeda et al) know and understand how powerful the science that Arrowhead wields is.

To understand why the science is so strong, you need to understand the basics of how it works. Our CEO gave some clues in Mondays conference call:

"First, we seek to choose only well-validated targets. These are gene targets, where consensus of experts agreed the reducing expression will likely have positive therapeutic benefits. By focusing on this, we believe we entered clinical studies with reduced biology and target risk relative to other candidates. Second, the RNAi mechanism and experience with the TRiM platform can provide additional wind at our back. As we continue to treat more patients with drug candidates built on the TRiM platform and see consistent activity and part of the safety profile, our confidence increases that other candidates targeting different genes will also be successful. RNAi doesn't care what gene has been silenced. Once we validate our ability to reduce expression of a given gene in a given cell type, we have confidence that we can replicate that in other gene targets. We believe this is a powerful and scalable concept that gives us confidence that a larger percentage of our candidates entering the clinic will ultimately become drugs compared to traditional -- compared to traditional small molecules."

You see, their business model is significantly different to that of other biotechs/pharma, and that is partly because of RNAi works/how easily they can find targets where this tech is highly likely to work. This is a very different modality to conventional small molecule biotechs, and gives ARWR a MASSIVE advantage over the competition.

The proof of the pudding is in the data, and the data is literally "off the charts". So while they don't have a commercial product, the data is showing extremely good efficiacy combined with a safety profile that (once again) small molecule companies simply can not match. ARWR's peers understand this (many others do not!), and this is why ARWR is now able to negotiate deals from a position of GREAT strength.

There is more to it than this, but I don't have the time right now to go into much more detail. Never the less, I think I have written enough here for others to get a flavor of why ARWR is such an undervalued gem of a company, and why I have effectively taken all my cash out of other individual companies and put it into ARWR!

Sure there is some risk, but ARWR is effectively running in a race where the competition has been nobbled! As a KOL cardiologist put it (just a week ago), paraphrased "We are entering a golden age of [RNAi] cardiovascular therapy".. and ARWR is the undisputed leader in that (RNAi) field right now. You only need to look what it did to Vertex's market cap just a few weeks back! There is even talk/rumors of "functional cures" in ARWR's HBV program that looks highly plausible given the reductions in harmful proteins - reductions that are unheard of previously. No one has managed to successfully treat HBV, let alone cure it. So, while it may not have a product, yet, IMHO it's just a matter of time. Did I mention how fast ARWR is?!

Edit to add:

If you consider that one successful/commercialized indication is (easily) worth the current market cap, and they plan to have 20-30 in clinical trials by 2023-2024. The risk/reward profile is truly amazing.

I just did a quick trawl through the Top 10 holdings of the biotech funds available in the UK and ARWR didn’t figure in any of them. Perhaps I'm missing something, but if it’s such a fantastic business, why do none of them hold it?

Thrugelmir

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Personally, I would run a mile from a company that is burning through cash at a colossal rate and doesn’t have a product.

This is why it's important to understand what you are investing in..

In the case of Arrowhead, their cash burn is actually very conservative given their pipeline, and the pipeline is one of the big reasons to be invested here. What is more, they have plenty of cash to keep them going, especially with their recent partnership/deal with Takeda, which is (I believe) not yet taken fully into account, although there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that they will have it soon enough. The terms of deal they got with Takeda are unheard of in the sector, and that is because they have been bargaining from a position of relative strength. Why the strength? Well, simply put, their peers (Takeda et al) know and understand how powerful the science that Arrowhead wields is.

To understand why the science is so strong, you need to understand the basics of how it works. Our CEO gave some clues in Mondays conference call:

"First, we seek to choose only well-validated targets. These are gene targets, where consensus of experts agreed the reducing expression will likely have positive therapeutic benefits. By focusing on this, we believe we entered clinical studies with reduced biology and target risk relative to other candidates. Second, the RNAi mechanism and experience with the TRiM platform can provide additional wind at our back. As we continue to treat more patients with drug candidates built on the TRiM platform and see consistent activity and part of the safety profile, our confidence increases that other candidates targeting different genes will also be successful. RNAi doesn't care what gene has been silenced. Once we validate our ability to reduce expression of a given gene in a given cell type, we have confidence that we can replicate that in other gene targets. We believe this is a powerful and scalable concept that gives us confidence that a larger percentage of our candidates entering the clinic will ultimately become drugs compared to traditional -- compared to traditional small molecules."

You see, their business model is significantly different to that of other biotechs/pharma, and that is partly because of RNAi works/how easily they can find targets where this tech is highly likely to work. This is a very different modality to conventional small molecule biotechs, and gives ARWR a MASSIVE advantage over the competition.

The proof of the pudding is in the data, and the data is literally "off the charts". So while they don't have a commercial product, the data is showing extremely good efficiacy combined with a safety profile that (once again) small molecule companies simply can not match. ARWR's peers understand this (many others do not!), and this is why ARWR is now able to negotiate deals from a position of GREAT strength.

There is more to it than this, but I don't have the time right now to go into much more detail. Never the less, I think I have written enough here for others to get a flavor of why ARWR is such an undervalued gem of a company, and why I have effectively taken all my cash out of other individual companies and put it into ARWR!

Sure there is some risk, but ARWR is effectively running in a race where the competition has been nobbled! As a KOL cardiologist put it (just a week ago), paraphrased "We are entering a golden age of [RNAi] cardiovascular therapy".. and ARWR is the undisputed leader in that (RNAi) field right now. You only need to look what it did to Vertex's market cap just a few weeks back! There is even talk/rumors of "functional cures" in ARWR's HBV program that looks highly plausible given the reductions in harmful proteins - reductions that are unheard of previously. No one has managed to successfully treat HBV, let alone cure it. So, while it may not have a product, yet, IMHO it's just a matter of time. Did I mention how fast ARWR is?!

Edit to add:

If you consider that one successful/commercialized indication is (easily) worth the current market cap, and they plan to have 20-30 in clinical trials by 2023-2024. The risk/reward profile is truly amazing.

I just did a quick trawl through the Top 10 holdings of the biotech funds available in the UK and ARWR didn’t figure in any of them. Perhaps I'm missing something, but if it’s such a fantastic business, why do none of them hold it?

Opinions differ. That's what creates markets. Takes 2 to trade. 

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Personally, I would run a mile from a company that is burning through cash at a colossal rate and doesn’t have a product.

This is why it's important to understand what you are investing in..

In the case of Arrowhead, their cash burn is actually very conservative given their pipeline, and the pipeline is one of the big reasons to be invested here. What is more, they have plenty of cash to keep them going, especially with their recent partnership/deal with Takeda, which is (I believe) not yet taken fully into account, although there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that they will have it soon enough. The terms of deal they got with Takeda are unheard of in the sector, and that is because they have been bargaining from a position of relative strength. Why the strength? Well, simply put, their peers (Takeda et al) know and understand how powerful the science that Arrowhead wields is.

To understand why the science is so strong, you need to understand the basics of how it works. Our CEO gave some clues in Mondays conference call:

"First, we seek to choose only well-validated targets. These are gene targets, where consensus of experts agreed the reducing expression will likely have positive therapeutic benefits. By focusing on this, we believe we entered clinical studies with reduced biology and target risk relative to other candidates. Second, the RNAi mechanism and experience with the TRiM platform can provide additional wind at our back. As we continue to treat more patients with drug candidates built on the TRiM platform and see consistent activity and part of the safety profile, our confidence increases that other candidates targeting different genes will also be successful. RNAi doesn't care what gene has been silenced. Once we validate our ability to reduce expression of a given gene in a given cell type, we have confidence that we can replicate that in other gene targets. We believe this is a powerful and scalable concept that gives us confidence that a larger percentage of our candidates entering the clinic will ultimately become drugs compared to traditional -- compared to traditional small molecules."

You see, their business model is significantly different to that of other biotechs/pharma, and that is partly because of RNAi works/how easily they can find targets where this tech is highly likely to work. This is a very different modality to conventional small molecule biotechs, and gives ARWR a MASSIVE advantage over the competition.

The proof of the pudding is in the data, and the data is literally "off the charts". So while they don't have a commercial product, the data is showing extremely good efficiacy combined with a safety profile that (once again) small molecule companies simply can not match. ARWR's peers understand this (many others do not!), and this is why ARWR is now able to negotiate deals from a position of GREAT strength.

There is more to it than this, but I don't have the time right now to go into much more detail. Never the less, I think I have written enough here for others to get a flavor of why ARWR is such an undervalued gem of a company, and why I have effectively taken all my cash out of other individual companies and put it into ARWR!

Sure there is some risk, but ARWR is effectively running in a race where the competition has been nobbled! As a KOL cardiologist put it (just a week ago), paraphrased "We are entering a golden age of [RNAi] cardiovascular therapy".. and ARWR is the undisputed leader in that (RNAi) field right now. You only need to look what it did to Vertex's market cap just a few weeks back! There is even talk/rumors of "functional cures" in ARWR's HBV program that looks highly plausible given the reductions in harmful proteins - reductions that are unheard of previously. No one has managed to successfully treat HBV, let alone cure it. So, while it may not have a product, yet, IMHO it's just a matter of time. Did I mention how fast ARWR is?!

Edit to add:

If you consider that one successful/commercialized indication is (easily) worth the current market cap, and they plan to have 20-30 in clinical trials by 2023-2024. The risk/reward profile is truly amazing.

I just did a quick trawl through the Top 10 holdings of the biotech funds available in the UK and ARWR didn’t figure in any of them. Perhaps I'm missing something, but if it’s such a fantastic business, why do none of them hold it?

It is puzzling, I have to say. My only guess is that they do not get it fully yet!

Instead, check out the ETF "XBI"

Really, the best source of info on ARWR is here:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARWR/community?p=ARWR

The S:N ratio is outstanding (if you ignore the few idiots on there - easily spotted by the "down thumbs") compared with other boards (a big clue IMHO). A significant number of posters there are seasoned biotech veterans who have held positions with companies such as AbbVie. A few hours (ideally a few nights!) spent reading that board is well worth the time.

norsefox

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

csgohan4

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

interesting insight, I've been keeping INRG on my watch list and likely buy into it for the long term soon. But those stocks you mentioned look like a good investment, esp Xpeng which has shot up vastly, although will it be  a bubble?

Tesla is outrageous in their performance. 

Looks like every man and his dog is putting some coin into tesla, Their stock graph makes me apprehensive and whether a bubble is forming. But everyone has their risks

Thrugelmir

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.

Follow the list of most shorted shares. Then you'll realise why RR bounces around. 

Username999

norsefox said:

csgohan4 said:

as you can see, alot of short selling going on with IAG/RR/EZJ/  CINE on another dip, so volatile, if I was a newbie investor, I'd would be having kittens by now, a roller coaster journey

Certainly this thread is not for the faint hearted, everyone can be world class investor in hindsight

It does seem like two days up, one day down pretty much constantly.  RR has been all over the place.
I have a Recovery Stocks portfolio which is pretty solidly green now, but it yo-yos every day or so.  It seems that when it goes down, everything else goes up.

The stocks to have made massive gains on in October/November have all been electric vehicle (EVs) and those related to to the EV future.  A few 'under-priced' (according to the market) IPOs have also shot up.  Tesla's performance is outrageous, but at least rationally related to S&P500 inclusion.  NIO, Xpeng, LI Auto, Workhorse etc. are somewhat harder to defend.

If you want an insight into the madness that is going on, I would cautiously suggest looking through the subreddit /wallstreetbets.  It absolutely is not for easily offended, but gives an idea into the madness (though I would never suggest following a single strategy that is being followed there).

We're surely into EV correction territory.  Xpeng and NIO certainly look like very viable long-term bets, but their stock prices make no sense at all (even less than Tesla!)

The thing with Tesla valuation is that it's NOT just a Car maker.
I expect Tesla will make normal margins on their Cars sales.
The potential is that Tesla makes huge margins on their RoboTaxis, Self Driving, Data Monetization, Energy business, Battery business, Insurance Business, etc, etc,.