Suggestions for a speculative punt?

csgohan4

Zola. said:

csgohan4 said:

There has been a new variant of Covid which could potentially bring the world on it's knees again.

I expect alot of the airlines and potentially hospitality shares may be a bit more volatile over the next days to weeks. I have a sizable share in IAG and I expect it to drop a further 20-30% tomorrow sadly.

My crystal ball tells me. It will be like it was in March 2020 and if the variant proves to be bad as it is, I expect another repeat of last years depression.

Potentially you may want to derisk in the hospitality/ entertainment/ travel sector and wait and pick up the stocks that drop for penny stock investing again or just watch and wait. 

Hard to know what to believe anymore! I don't see us going back to March 2020 style lockups and flash crash, but who knows. 

If everything does crash hard again I think it could be a longer crash with more FUD, but then again the governments have just printed more and more money to paper over the cracks, so what's a few trillion more when the debt is already unpayable. 

It has begun, IAG, EZY, RR all down more than 15% at one point. 

Strap yourself in if your invested in those. Another reason why individual stocks are risky. Liquidate if you want to pick up some value shares or de risk.  

I suspected it might take 5 years from last year, sadly I think it might be true.

DYOR

Apodemus

Zola. said:

... it could be a longer crash with more FUD... 

A prospect that might be viewed quite differently in west-central Scotland...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/john-lewis-fud-dragon-leaves-24173740

Alexland

csgohan4 said:

I am not talking about the current variant but a new emerging threat, already asian stocks are down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127

By happy chance our iWeb ISAs were entirely in cash overnight having just sold down an investment yesterday to buy another. Our youngest was poorly, angry and smashed a full bottle of sticky calpol liquid which went everywhere and by the time I had cleaned that up didn't have time to reinvest. Anyway got back into the market this morning at 2% lower valuation so happy with that as my black friday discount. I doubt this story will cause prices to go much lower as market participants are now pretty bored of covid related news but maybe there will be a little wobble before the US market opens.

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

Thrugelmir said:

csgohan4 said:

There has been a new variant of Covid which could potentially bring the world on it's knees again.

Didn't realise that the old variant had been dealt with. Energy stocks have made for a more interesting trade over recent months. 

I am not talking about the current variant but a new emerging threat, already asian stocks are down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127

I was making reference to the fact that the much of the globe was still unvaccinated. Out of sight out of mind. No longer newsworthy. But still creating many many problems. 

csgohan4

As previously mentioned, modern investors move on sentiment to an extent, as you can see with the airlines, they took a beating and it's a blood bath. 

I have learnt from my experience with CINE not to crystalize my losses on a knee jerk and will watch and hope. They were down in the early part of the  year as well to around 140 due to bad news, i think to do with the quarantine lists


But if it turns out as Covid 2022, it will really put a large spanner in anyone's portfolio, share or otherwise. 

adindas

Yes, market sell off on Friday and there might be a good opportunity to make money out there. There are a lot of information regarding the good stock to buy on CNBC television coming from Wall Street’s Analysts, hedge funds.

https://www.youtube.com/c/CNBCtelevision/videos

But the impact will be so different with the one we saw in market crash in March 2020 due currently only small percentage have been identified and people have learnt how way to contain them. Also large population have been vaccinared.

Good to consider are

-  Hospitality, airlines industries, Booking companie, Cruises (just be aware of ther debt)

-  Stay at home stock like Zoom, Peloton, etc.

-  Covid 19 vaccine makers such as Moderna, Pfizer, Astra Zeneca

- Commodity, like oil which is currently tanking,

But do not just blindly believe what they are saying without doing our own due diligence.

It is just started on Friday. It is good to wait until bottoming up before making decision.The rule of thumb that I have learn is to wait until three working days. If it is combined with candle stick charting and indicators, to identify short term overbought/oversold territory, it might be a powerful tool.

csgohan4

With PCR being requested on D2 on arriving from UK from anywhere and likely travel bans coming, brace yourself for more turbulence for airline shares. Expect another 10-15% drop on Monday. I suspect to around 100p over the next month or so. 

Question is how long can they last as they have a high cash burn.

Alistair31

Rather than get involved with the airlines directly my play is MNZS. 

DYOR

csgohan4

Alistair31 said:

Rather than get involved with the airlines directly my play is MNZS. 

DYOR

Seems reasonable to target the ones supplying the airlines. I hold RR too to spread some of the risk but admittedly it is still in the sameish basket

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

Alistair31 said:

Rather than get involved with the airlines directly my play is MNZS. 

DYOR

Seems reasonable to target the ones supplying the airlines. I hold RR too to spread some of the risk but admittedly it is still in the sameish basket

RR has potentially has other strings to their bow.