Brexit, funds and equities

Thrugelmir

Albermarle said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alistair31 said:

Thrugelmir said:

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Only my opinion but I think there will be a deal of some sort.

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

Going to get a lot hotter in the kitchen yet. Some fundamental differences of opinion. Which are difficult to reconcile. 

I do not think it is so black and white as deal or no deal . Plenty of scope for half a deal at the end of the year and the rest to be fully sorted out later . If you look at the example of Switzerland , then the negotiations with the EU never actually end and are an ongoing situation for years .

Albermarle said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alistair31 said:

Thrugelmir said:

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Only my opinion but I think there will be a deal of some sort.

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

Going to get a lot hotter in the kitchen yet. Some fundamental differences of opinion. Which are difficult to reconcile. 

I do not think it is so black and white as deal or no deal . Plenty of scope for half a deal at the end of the year and the rest to be fully sorted out later . If you look at the example of Switzerland , then the negotiations with the EU never actually end and are an ongoing situation for years .

Talks between Switzerland and the EU stalled due to the dogmatic stance of the EU.  There's no reason to believe that the main sticking points between the UK and the EU will ever be resolved. There's no half way house. Trade doesn't stop if there's no agreement. 

MinuteNoodles

alecm said:

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Nothing. The stock market has already factored in a WTO Brexit. Whilst you're still worrying about something the financial markets have already reacted. 

From: https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/09/its-in-the-price-the-stockmarket-has-already-taken-that-stupid-internet-article-into-account/

My second point is that the stockmarket is not the economy. The global stockmarket is made up of the big publicly traded corporations of the world. The stockmarket is made up of Big Tech, Big Capital and The Rise of The Machines.

The stockmarket does not include the small businesses, the independent private businesses, the (good) pubs and restaurants, the local businesses. Last week one of our local gyms went bankrupt; another casualty of lockdown…not a problem for the stockmarket but a personal tragedy for the young family that ran it.

My third point is that the stockmarket is looking forward. All the economic data you are seeing relates to last year, or last quarter or last month. All the news you are seeing relates to what happened yesterday.

In contrast, the stock exchange is looking far, far out into the future. Anyone who has prepared discounted cashflow models valuing companies knows that a large percentage of the value of the company usually sits in the continuing value: the perpetuity value of the cashflows outside the explicit forecast cashflow period.

......

The stockmarket is like a gigantic super-computer that gathers information, reflects uncertainty, weighs up all the bets placed and produces prices that reflect that information and that uncertainty. In the jargon, the stockmarket is “efficient”. That means it reflects the available information and uncertainty well enough that you can’t beat the market by reading newspapers, broker research or listening to your mate Dave down the pub.

So how good is that super-computer? How good is the market at pricing the zillion pieces of information, picking out what’s important and discarding the noise? Well, given the impossible scale of the task, the super-computer is REALLY, REALLY good at it.

This is not to sat that the market is always right. The stockmarket is not 100% efficient. It is not some all-powerful deity or omnipotent being. But it’s got more computing power than any one mortal individual.

Michael121

MinuteNoodles said:

alecm said:

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Nothing. The stock market has already factored in a WTO Brexit. Whilst you're still worrying about something the financial markets have already reacted. 

From: https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/09/its-in-the-price-the-stockmarket-has-already-taken-that-stupid-internet-article-into-account/

My second point is that the stockmarket is not the economy. The global stockmarket is made up of the big publicly traded corporations of the world. The stockmarket is made up of Big Tech, Big Capital and The Rise of The Machines.

The stockmarket does not include the small businesses, the independent private businesses, the (good) pubs and restaurants, the local businesses. Last week one of our local gyms went bankrupt; another casualty of lockdown…not a problem for the stockmarket but a personal tragedy for the young family that ran it.

My third point is that the stockmarket is looking forward. All the economic data you are seeing relates to last year, or last quarter or last month. All the news you are seeing relates to what happened yesterday.

In contrast, the stock exchange is looking far, far out into the future. Anyone who has prepared discounted cashflow models valuing companies knows that a large percentage of the value of the company usually sits in the continuing value: the perpetuity value of the cashflows outside the explicit forecast cashflow period.

......

The stockmarket is like a gigantic super-computer that gathers information, reflects uncertainty, weighs up all the bets placed and produces prices that reflect that information and that uncertainty. In the jargon, the stockmarket is “efficient”. That means it reflects the available information and uncertainty well enough that you can’t beat the market by reading newspapers, broker research or listening to your mate Dave down the pub.

So how good is that super-computer? How good is the market at pricing the zillion pieces of information, picking out what’s important and discarding the noise? Well, given the impossible scale of the task, the super-computer is REALLY, REALLY good at it.

This is not to sat that the market is always right. The stockmarket is not 100% efficient. It is not some all-powerful deity or omnipotent being. But it’s got more computing power than any one mortal individual.

That's just talk to get people in the right mindset.

msallen

MaxiRobriguez said:

Without doubt the worst prime minister we've ever had in our lifetimes. 

Possibly, but think how far up 5h1t creek we'd be if he'd lost the last election.

bowlhead99

Michael121 said:
[sensible explanation from someone of how markets work]
That's just talk to get people in the right mindset.

Spoken like a true conspiracy theorist. 

Yes, that's how The Man gets you - governments soften up the populace and quell uprisings by inserting people with 'facts' and 'sensible views' into conversations in the hope that people will read those explanations and understand more about how the world works.  When the fact-mongers are credible, everyone comes around to the government propaganda about how markets function and doesn't try to rock the boat because they don't think they have any power to do that and are best following along with the rest of the sheeple.

/s

Thrugelmir

msallen said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

Without doubt the worst prime minister we've ever had in our lifetimes. 

Possibly, but think how far up 5h1t creek we'd be if he'd lost the last election.

Reflection of the general poor quality across the board. Though to be honest not sure why anybody wish to enter public office these days as a thankless task. Corporations carry more influence than many sovereign states. 

Thrugelmir

MinuteNoodles said:

alecm said:

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Nothing. The stock market has already factored in a WTO Brexit. Whilst you're still worrying about something the financial markets have already reacted. 

From: https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/09/its-in-the-price-the-stockmarket-has-already-taken-that-stupid-internet-article-into-account/

My second point is that the stockmarket is not the economy. The global stockmarket is made up of the big publicly traded corporations of the world. The stockmarket is made up of Big Tech, Big Capital and The Rise of The Machines.

The stockmarket does not include the small businesses, the independent private businesses, the (good) pubs and restaurants, the local businesses. Last week one of our local gyms went bankrupt; another casualty of lockdown…not a problem for the stockmarket but a personal tragedy for the young family that ran it.

My third point is that the stockmarket is looking forward. All the economic data you are seeing relates to last year, or last quarter or last month. All the news you are seeing relates to what happened yesterday.

In contrast, the stock exchange is looking far, far out into the future. Anyone who has prepared discounted cashflow models valuing companies knows that a large percentage of the value of the company usually sits in the continuing value: the perpetuity value of the cashflows outside the explicit forecast cashflow period.

......

The stockmarket is like a gigantic super-computer that gathers information, reflects uncertainty, weighs up all the bets placed and produces prices that reflect that information and that uncertainty. In the jargon, the stockmarket is “efficient”. That means it reflects the available information and uncertainty well enough that you can’t beat the market by reading newspapers, broker research or listening to your mate Dave down the pub.

So how good is that super-computer? How good is the market at pricing the zillion pieces of information, picking out what’s important and discarding the noise? Well, given the impossible scale of the task, the super-computer is REALLY, REALLY good at it.

This is not to sat that the market is always right. The stockmarket is not 100% efficient. It is not some all-powerful deity or omnipotent being. But it’s got more computing power than any one mortal individual.

Robinhood investors may well be at the controls of the machine currently. Collective force influencing events rather than mundane fundamentals. 

MaxiRobriguez

Thrugelmir said:

MinuteNoodles said:

alecm said:

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Nothing. The stock market has already factored in a WTO Brexit. Whilst you're still worrying about something the financial markets have already reacted. 

From: https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/09/its-in-the-price-the-stockmarket-has-already-taken-that-stupid-internet-article-into-account/

My second point is that the stockmarket is not the economy. The global stockmarket is made up of the big publicly traded corporations of the world. The stockmarket is made up of Big Tech, Big Capital and The Rise of The Machines.

The stockmarket does not include the small businesses, the independent private businesses, the (good) pubs and restaurants, the local businesses. Last week one of our local gyms went bankrupt; another casualty of lockdown…not a problem for the stockmarket but a personal tragedy for the young family that ran it.

My third point is that the stockmarket is looking forward. All the economic data you are seeing relates to last year, or last quarter or last month. All the news you are seeing relates to what happened yesterday.

In contrast, the stock exchange is looking far, far out into the future. Anyone who has prepared discounted cashflow models valuing companies knows that a large percentage of the value of the company usually sits in the continuing value: the perpetuity value of the cashflows outside the explicit forecast cashflow period.

......

The stockmarket is like a gigantic super-computer that gathers information, reflects uncertainty, weighs up all the bets placed and produces prices that reflect that information and that uncertainty. In the jargon, the stockmarket is “efficient”. That means it reflects the available information and uncertainty well enough that you can’t beat the market by reading newspapers, broker research or listening to your mate Dave down the pub.

So how good is that super-computer? How good is the market at pricing the zillion pieces of information, picking out what’s important and discarding the noise? Well, given the impossible scale of the task, the super-computer is REALLY, REALLY good at it.

This is not to sat that the market is always right. The stockmarket is not 100% efficient. It is not some all-powerful deity or omnipotent being. But it’s got more computing power than any one mortal individual.

Robinhood investors may well be at the controls of the machine currently. Collective force influencing events rather than mundane fundamentals. 

Heard this a couple of times but struggling to believe that 3 million or so new users who are "furloughed and bored" have the combined capital to swing markets significantly in any direction. 

Alistair31

MaxiRobriguez said:

Thrugelmir said:

MinuteNoodles said:

alecm said:

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Nothing. The stock market has already factored in a WTO Brexit. Whilst you're still worrying about something the financial markets have already reacted. 

From: https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/09/its-in-the-price-the-stockmarket-has-already-taken-that-stupid-internet-article-into-account/

My second point is that the stockmarket is not the economy. The global stockmarket is made up of the big publicly traded corporations of the world. The stockmarket is made up of Big Tech, Big Capital and The Rise of The Machines.

The stockmarket does not include the small businesses, the independent private businesses, the (good) pubs and restaurants, the local businesses. Last week one of our local gyms went bankrupt; another casualty of lockdown…not a problem for the stockmarket but a personal tragedy for the young family that ran it.

My third point is that the stockmarket is looking forward. All the economic data you are seeing relates to last year, or last quarter or last month. All the news you are seeing relates to what happened yesterday.

In contrast, the stock exchange is looking far, far out into the future. Anyone who has prepared discounted cashflow models valuing companies knows that a large percentage of the value of the company usually sits in the continuing value: the perpetuity value of the cashflows outside the explicit forecast cashflow period.

......

The stockmarket is like a gigantic super-computer that gathers information, reflects uncertainty, weighs up all the bets placed and produces prices that reflect that information and that uncertainty. In the jargon, the stockmarket is “efficient”. That means it reflects the available information and uncertainty well enough that you can’t beat the market by reading newspapers, broker research or listening to your mate Dave down the pub.

So how good is that super-computer? How good is the market at pricing the zillion pieces of information, picking out what’s important and discarding the noise? Well, given the impossible scale of the task, the super-computer is REALLY, REALLY good at it.

This is not to sat that the market is always right. The stockmarket is not 100% efficient. It is not some all-powerful deity or omnipotent being. But it’s got more computing power than any one mortal individual.

Robinhood investors may well be at the controls of the machine currently. Collective force influencing events rather than mundane fundamentals. 

Heard this a couple of times but struggling to believe that 3 million or so new users who are "furloughed and bored" have the combined capital to swing markets significantly in any direction. 

Furloughed and bored saw me gamble £10k on individual shares  

Thrugelmir

MaxiRobriguez said:

Thrugelmir said:

MinuteNoodles said:

alecm said:

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Nothing. The stock market has already factored in a WTO Brexit. Whilst you're still worrying about something the financial markets have already reacted. 

From: https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/09/its-in-the-price-the-stockmarket-has-already-taken-that-stupid-internet-article-into-account/

My second point is that the stockmarket is not the economy. The global stockmarket is made up of the big publicly traded corporations of the world. The stockmarket is made up of Big Tech, Big Capital and The Rise of The Machines.

The stockmarket does not include the small businesses, the independent private businesses, the (good) pubs and restaurants, the local businesses. Last week one of our local gyms went bankrupt; another casualty of lockdown…not a problem for the stockmarket but a personal tragedy for the young family that ran it.

My third point is that the stockmarket is looking forward. All the economic data you are seeing relates to last year, or last quarter or last month. All the news you are seeing relates to what happened yesterday.

In contrast, the stock exchange is looking far, far out into the future. Anyone who has prepared discounted cashflow models valuing companies knows that a large percentage of the value of the company usually sits in the continuing value: the perpetuity value of the cashflows outside the explicit forecast cashflow period.

......

The stockmarket is like a gigantic super-computer that gathers information, reflects uncertainty, weighs up all the bets placed and produces prices that reflect that information and that uncertainty. In the jargon, the stockmarket is “efficient”. That means it reflects the available information and uncertainty well enough that you can’t beat the market by reading newspapers, broker research or listening to your mate Dave down the pub.

So how good is that super-computer? How good is the market at pricing the zillion pieces of information, picking out what’s important and discarding the noise? Well, given the impossible scale of the task, the super-computer is REALLY, REALLY good at it.

This is not to sat that the market is always right. The stockmarket is not 100% efficient. It is not some all-powerful deity or omnipotent being. But it’s got more computing power than any one mortal individual.

Robinhood investors may well be at the controls of the machine currently. Collective force influencing events rather than mundane fundamentals. 

Heard this a couple of times but struggling to believe that 3 million or so new users who are "furloughed and bored" have the combined capital to swing markets significantly in any direction. 

Americans haven't been furloughed. Certainly been some unusual stock price movements. Hertz being one. In essence a bankrupt company with the share price rising from $0.4 to $6.25, a 896% rise in just 13 days.  Carnival PLC isn't the same level but nevertheless buoyed by optimism.