Brexit, funds and equities

alecm

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

bowlhead99

WTO Brexit would likely boost the FTSE index value because an exit without a deal is likely to be more damaging to the country's short-and medium- term prospects than what had been expected, which would make the pound less desirable and cheaper in other currencies, while the businesses within the FTSE have a large proportion of their assets and incomes in currencies other than sterling which would then (following the depreciation of sterling) be worth more sterling.

Long term, nobody knows for sure.

Alistair31

Let me fetch the crystal ball.

dunstonh

What will a WTO Brexit do to the FTSE...immediately and over the next 10 yrs

Which FTSE?

Assuming you mean FTSE100, which is UK large cap, then probably very little as most of the income from most FTSE100 companies is global.

Brexit is pretty much priced into the market but its Sterling where it has been playing out.   Now it is clear that there is going to be no extension, companies can plan and adapt to that in time and then take any deal that may appear as a bonus.

No-one can predict next week.  Let alone 10 years.   However, I think it is fair to say that the FTSE100 will be as dire as it always is given its asset make up.

Thrugelmir

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Alistair31

Thrugelmir said:

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Only my opinion but I think there will be a deal of some sort.

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

Thrugelmir

Alistair31 said:

Thrugelmir said:

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Only my opinion but I think there will be a deal of some sort.

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

Going to get a lot hotter in the kitchen yet. Some fundamental differences of opinion. Which are difficult to reconcile. 

MarkCarnage

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

This is what scares me. Experience to date suggests it will not be a good 'something'. 

MaxiRobriguez

Alistair31 said:

Thrugelmir said:

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Only my opinion but I think there will be a deal of some sort.

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

The myth of Boris' efficiency just won't go away will it?

That "Oven Ready" deal might get brought back up, which absolutely doesn't have a border in the Irish sea and not on your nelly would ever consider lowering food standards.

There may be a deal, there many not be a deal. Either way, our glorious leader will bumble his way any negotiations with little idea of what he wants to achieve, lying to the British people throughout to save face and/or avoid scrutiny and ultimately we'll end up in a weaker position than we would have been had someone with an ounce of competence been running the show.

Without doubt the worst prime minister we've ever had in our lifetimes. 

As for what will happen to the FTSE: I suspect very little. Any big players who aren't anticipating a difficult Brexit, either WTO or very flimsy deal, are frankly as naive as those still thinking Boris is some sort of one off go-getter. We've been in this scenario for at least a year, probably longer. A WTO confirmed Brexit might move the markets a little bit but not a lot. On the other hand, a "full alignment" Brexit would move markets significantly, and would lower the FTSE100 as the strengthening of GDP quickly would outpace the gains of the shares. 

Albermarle

Thrugelmir said:

Alistair31 said:

Thrugelmir said:

WTO would be a boost to the UK domestic economy. 

Only my opinion but I think there will be a deal of some sort.

Never bet against BoJo getting something done.

Going to get a lot hotter in the kitchen yet. Some fundamental differences of opinion. Which are difficult to reconcile. 

I do not think it is so black and white as deal or no deal . Plenty of scope for half a deal at the end of the year and the rest to be fully sorted out later . If you look at the example of Switzerland , then the negotiations with the EU never actually end and are an ongoing situation for years .

EdGasketTheSecond

That "Oven Ready" deal might just turn out to have been half-baked.