Is now really a bad time to buy?

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK?

No, of course not.

Do you honestly think not a single HK citizen would take advantage of the new visa rules and move to the UK? Do you honestly think any number of HK citizens moving to the UK will result in more or less "empty flats" than there are now?

Parking_Eyerate

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Miranda25 said:

 I think a lot of Polish people are leaving the UK?

A lot of Poles left last year, mainly due to Brexit, is there any evidence of a mass exodus post-coronavirus?

The government are still supporting people`s wages, the exodus comes when that stops and the level of unemployment becomes clear and/ or people`s "Right to Remain" is challenged. Not sure why someone who supposedly owns outright in rural Wales is desperate for BTL/Airbnb to remain unscathed in the biggest recession for 300 years, maybe you have some other properties that you rent out?

It's very odd to assume that just because people question what you say they have to be "desperate for buy to let/AirBnB to remain unscathed". I think your vested interest (VI) status clouds your 'judgment' because it is possible for people to question you and disagree with you without being 'desperate' about any situation.

I fully admit that I do not know what will happen to buy to let and AirBnB markets, but I don't claim to, and it is your unsupported assertion that there will be an unabated flood of these properties which I question because your 'facts' seem to come from nothing more than anti-property prejudice and an irrational dislike of people that have chosen to buy property.

My personal view is that there will likely be a lot of 'stay-cationing' this year. I am certainly actively looking for UK holiday options but it is not at all easy to find anything and I think that many places are likely to be inundated with booking requests when they do reopen. Does that lead me to think that AirBnB properties will flood onto the market? No, it doesn't, but then I don't pretend to know everything and am happy to admit that I could be wrong.

Miranda25

TonyMMM said:

Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

How about help-to-buy scheme? It is clearly said 5% deposit, 20-40% equity loan and 55-75% mortgage. So for somebody who wants to buy it is still 5% deposit.
https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

A lot of Poles left last year, mainly due to Brexit, is there any evidence of a mass exodus post-coronavirus?

the exodus comes when that stops

In other words there is no evidence as it hasn't happened and is just wishful thinking by the crashaholics.

Crashy_Time said:

Not sure why someone who supposedly owns outright in rural Wales is desperate for BTL/Airbnb to remain unscathed in the biggest recession for 300 years, maybe you have some other properties that you rent out?

LOL, I am not remotely desperate for BTL to remain unscathed but I will challenge fake news spread by those who have a vested interest in promoting fear and uncertainty. Yet again you seem more interested in changing the subject than coming up with credible reasons why landlords will be "flooding the market" with their "empty flats"...

Parking_Eyerate

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?

BBC, where else?

It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria?

Boris Johnson - right to live in UK for over two and a half million Hong Kong citizens

Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)

so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?

If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?

Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.

Crashy_Time said:

TonyMMM said:

Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.

The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

Crashy_Time

Parking_Eyerate said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?

BBC, where else?

It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria?

Boris Johnson - right to live in UK for over two and a half million Hong Kong citizens

Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)

so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?

If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?

Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.

Crashy_Time said:

TonyMMM said:

Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.

The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 

Wkmg

Crashy_Time said:

Parking_Eyerate said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?

BBC, where else?

It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria?

Boris Johnson - right to live in UK for over two and a half million Hong Kong citizens

Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)

so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?

If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?

Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.

Crashy_Time said:

TonyMMM said:

Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.

The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 

Perhaps they feel like the UK is their country now? Perhaps the huge global event effecting the UK economy will effect the economy of the country they were born in  

Parking_Eyerate

Crashy_Time said:

Parking_Eyerate said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?

BBC, where else?

It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria?

Boris Johnson - right to live in UK for over two and a half million Hong Kong citizens

Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)

so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?

If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?

Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.

Crashy_Time said:

TonyMMM said:

Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.

The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 

"Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.

Ozzuk

I've been reading this thread with interest, and what has become clear is Crashy's modus operandi.  Any bad event over the last 5-7 years will see an increase in their posting level, promoting the absolute worst case as fact.  Other posters will then provide rational responses which Crashy will then ignore 90% of, picking up one statement that they think they can challenge in an attempt to divert the point with an ever meandering response.  This will be interpersed with an article with a shock headline that often they haven't actually read.  This will be followed by new accounts supporting his position.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this really is just agenda driven scaremongering.  I actually agree with some aspects - this is a time to be careful about over leveraging to buy property - but being chicken little everytime something bad happens is getting old and detracts from your points.
I think what is clear at the moment is everyone's situation is different and each person should consider their own attitude to risk, and likelyhood of certain scenarios happening (redundancy, house price drop/increase etc).  The current disaster could be a wake up call for many people who live a life based on credit, and you'd hope we'll see more shoring up of assets.  And there will be winners and losers - sadly a lot of people are losing their jobs/homes, relationships breaking, there are also a lot of people for whom the opposite is true - a lot of money is being made on the stock markets right now with clever (if risky) investment.



 

eidand

Ozzuk said:

I've been reading this thread with interest, and what has become clear is Crashy's modus operandi.  Any bad event over the last 5-7 years will see an increase in their posting level, promoting the absolute worst case as fact.  Other posters will then provide rational responses which Crashy will then ignore 90% of, picking up one statement that they think they can challenge in an attempt to divert the point with an ever meandering response.  This will be interpersed with an article with a shock headline that often they haven't actually read.  This will be followed by new accounts supporting his position.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this really is just agenda driven scaremongering.  I actually agree with some aspects - this is a time to be careful about over leveraging to buy property - but being chicken little everytime something bad happens is getting old and detracts from your points.
I think what is clear at the moment is everyone's situation is different and each person should consider their own attitude to risk, and likelyhood of certain scenarios happening (redundancy, house price drop/increase etc).  The current disaster could be a wake up call for many people who live a life based on credit, and you'd hope we'll see more shoring up of assets.  And there will be winners and losers - sadly a lot of people are losing their jobs/homes, relationships breaking, there are also a lot of people for whom the opposite is true - a lot of money is being made on the stock markets right now with clever (if risky) investment.



 

Tbh I don't see the point to all this.
Whatever is talked about on this board won't have any effect outside of it, so I am wondering if it's simply attention seeking. The guy is either bored or clearly has nothing better to do with his life. It's a shame really because people come here to get some helpful advice and they get this chap with his waffle.