Is now really a bad time to buy?

Parking_Eyerate

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

 it is the pressure on BTL and Airbnb that will flood the market as hanging on to where you live is one thing while paying council tax on an empty flat is quite another.

Why will there be a significant number of empty flats in the future? Where will all these people currently living in them live instead?

Most people of reasonable intelligence could come up with one reason (clue, it starts with "R") and maybe four of five places the people could be - I`ll start off with  1) At their parents. - Can you really not think of any more?

Interestingly, apparently the lockdown has helped fuel an increase in rental demand from some. I’m sure it may be different in different areas etc. but it does indicate that there is no one size fits all theory or answer to this situation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52847319
So some places might have a ‘flood’ of BTL or AirBnB properties as you put it (you do seem to be salivating a bit over the idea), but others might not. Do you actually think you can reliably predict everything about what will happen everywhere?

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Why will there be a significant number of empty flats in the future? Where will all these people currently living in them live instead?

  I`ll start off with  1) At their parents. -

LOL! You cannot be serious?!?! Even if moving back to parents is an option (which for many it won't be) only a small number of people would actually choose to do that.

Do you have any credible explanations as to why landlords will be "flooding the market" with their "empty flats"? Or was this just wishful thinking on your part?

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Why will there be a significant number of empty flats in the future? Where will all these people currently living in them live instead?

  I`ll start off with  1) At their parents. -

LOL! You cannot be serious?!?! Even if moving back to parents is an option (which for many it won't be) only a small number of people would actually choose to do that.

Do you have any credible explanations as to why landlords will be "flooding the market" with their "empty flats"? Or was this just wishful thinking on your part?

There are a LOT of young people who fund their own flat or flat-share from working in hospitality or retail, and also a lot who may be asked to do more (all?) online work towards degrees etc, in the first case if the job disappears they might move home, in the second they might never leave it. Transactions are way down from their peak precisely because more and more younger people were just staying at home as house prices got sillier and sillier. Don`t you see the connection between demand for rental flats and wages/jobs/number of students? Do you see the eviction ban/rent holidays lasting forever?

Splatfoot

Surely Air bnb will be thriving over the next couple of years as more people choose to holiday at home? 

Crashy_Time

Splatfoot said:

Surely Air bnb will be thriving over the next couple of years as more people choose to holiday at home? 

That will please HMRC no doubt.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

Transactions are way down from their peak precisely because more and more younger people were just staying at home as house prices got sillier and sillier. Don`t you see the connection between demand for rental flats and wages/jobs/number of students? Do you see the eviction ban/rent holidays lasting forever?

Younger people already staying at home doesn't affect the housing market one iota; transactions have been at 100,000 a month for years.

You haven't even remotely explained how the market will be "flooded" by landlords with suddenly "empty flats", possibly because you've realised it was a silly thing to say?  

Yes there are a lot of young people renting and some will move back home. However to counter that you have the given that

1) holidaying abroad for many people will be a thing of the past for the foreseeable future so demand for short term lets will rise, plus

2) things like divorce legal enquiries are up 40% during the pandemic; that's going to be a lot of two-person households that suddenly need two properties for the same number of people...

If anything there's going to be a shortage of rentals and rents are going to start rising; if you ask me, now is a really bad time to be renting and paying your landlord's mortgage instead of your own.

Splatfoot

Crashy_Time said:

Splatfoot said:

Surely Air bnb will be thriving over the next couple of years as more people choose to holiday at home? 

That will please HMRC no doubt.

What's that got to do with anything being talked about?

Crashy_Time

Splatfoot said:

Crashy_Time said:

Splatfoot said:

Surely Air bnb will be thriving over the next couple of years as more people choose to holiday at home? 

That will please HMRC no doubt.

What's that got to do with anything being talked about?

It`s got to do with Airbnb becoming a mugs game as client numbers drop, taxes go up, and it becomes a political/local council football.

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

Transactions are way down from their peak precisely because more and more younger people were just staying at home as house prices got sillier and sillier. Don`t you see the connection between demand for rental flats and wages/jobs/number of students? Do you see the eviction ban/rent holidays lasting forever?

Younger people already staying at home doesn't affect the housing market one iota; transactions have been at 100,000 a month for years.

You haven't even remotely explained how the market will be "flooded" by landlords with suddenly "empty flats", possibly because you've realised it was a silly thing to say?  

Yes there are a lot of young people renting and some will move back home. However to counter that you have the given that

1) holidaying abroad for many people will be a thing of the past for the foreseeable future so demand for short term lets will rise, plus

2) things like divorce legal enquiries are up 40% during the pandemic; that's going to be a lot of two-person households that suddenly need two properties for the same number of people...

If anything there's going to be a shortage of rentals and rents are going to start rising; if you ask me, now is a really bad time to be renting and paying your landlord's mortgage instead of your own.

So according to you prices getting more out of reach and more and more people staying at home has no bearing on the large drop in transactions from the peak? What is mainly responsible for the drop in transactions in your opinion?

1) You have no idea how holidaying abroad will pan out in future, and short term lets won`t save the BTL market which relies on LONG term rents to pay the bank for the BTL mortgage (or mortgages) plus short term lets will be competing with B+B`s and chain hotels desperately price cutting to stay afloat, plus the fact that if things are so bad that UK people don`t go abroad then tourists won`t be coming here, can`t see the AirBnB crowd being able to compete on price to attract the much smaller pool of clients that that will result in because many of them are highly leveraged.

2) The last thing a squabbling couple is going to do is rush out and buy yet another overpriced new-build or high rise shoebox! In many cases they will have been down the back of the couch to scrape up a deposit for the present Happy Home, and lending is definitely tightening so one paycheck might not cut it anymore, much more likely is that one of them goes to the parents and they squabble long distance over who gets the house, and if lockdown ends many of them will get back together again so that desperate avenue of argument isn`t going to hold much water either I`m afraid!

Wkmg

Who are all these adults who live and work close enough to or have the inclination to live with their parents? Also who are these parents who would be happy to have their adult children (possibly in advanced middle age) move in with them? If I had to move in with one parent I’d have a 500 mile round trip to work. If I had to move in with the other it would be 1660 miles (assuming I’d be allowed through all the borders without issue).