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Is now really a bad time to buy?

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Comments

  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Seventh Anniversary Name Dropper
    Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
  • Miranda25
    Miranda25 Posts: 357 Forumite
    Seventh Anniversary 100 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Miranda25 said:
    Miranda25 said:
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    How about help-to-buy scheme? It is clearly said 5% deposit, 20-40% equity loan and 55-75% mortgage. So for somebody who wants to buy it is still 5% deposit.
    https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/

    HTB relies on HTB specific mortgages. I would have thought that lenders will continue to offer them due to the government security (as surely from the lender's point of view it is 75% or 55% LTV), but it would be interesting to get the input of the brokers here, or others more knowledgeable. 

    On the other hand though, HTB prices are inflated, so I guess in that sense higher risk? I was going to buy HTB, when I felt reasonably confident that prices could at least remain the same, if not go higher - I accepted that I was over-paying at the start, but felt that the loan would still allow me to build enough equity to make it all worthwhile. However now I feel it's too much of a risk.
    Why do you think HTB prices are inflated? You pay for NEW properties.
    Also read this threat: 

    Using Help to Buy Equity Loan to hedge the potential price crash?

    It might be helpful to you?
    I have been looking at HTB properties for 2-3 years. Yes they are new (or in some cases a new conversion), but as soon as you move in they are no longer new. It's like driving a brand new car off the forecourt - the moment you move in it's not worth what you paid. You wouldn't be able to sell it on the open market for what you bought it for at that time. The whole point of the scheme is the reliance on property values going up. 

    Anyway, I have done a LOT of research and thinking about the scheme, am confident I am aware of the pros and cons, and have made a decision that is personal to me. From reading your posts it doesn't seem like you know that much about the scheme so I was trying to help, but if that doesn't fit with what you want the answer to be then no problem, I wish you well.
    Honestly, I did not decide yet what would be nice for me. 
    I cannot afford to buy in London without help-to-buy scheme. But I can rent 1-2 years more and save more money for deposit. I only know that I don't want a flat in awful condition as I want to live there straight away without spending a huge amount of money on refurbishment. So ideally it would be properties which are 2-3 years old (slightly cheaper than new ones). But these properties will be on HTB shared ownership not on HTB equity loan and I still have to pay an element of rent, correct?
    Not sure what would be better: these properties on resale or new ones? 
    But you are right, everybody's situation is different and everybody decides what is better for him.
  • Wkmg
    Wkmg Posts: 232 Forumite
    Fifth Anniversary 100 Posts Name Dropper
    edited 18 June 2020 at 3:44PM
    Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
    Again, maybe they think the UK is their own country? You’re starting to sound like you want them to go back to “their own country”.
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Seventh Anniversary Name Dropper
    Ozzuk said:
    I've been reading this thread with interest, and what has become clear is Crashy's modus operandi.  Any bad event over the last 5-7 years will see an increase in their posting level, promoting the absolute worst case as fact.  Other posters will then provide rational responses which Crashy will then ignore 90% of, picking up one statement that they think they can challenge in an attempt to divert the point with an ever meandering response.  This will be interpersed with an article with a shock headline that often they haven't actually read.  This will be followed by new accounts supporting his position.
    Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this really is just agenda driven scaremongering.  I actually agree with some aspects - this is a time to be careful about over leveraging to buy property - but being chicken little everytime something bad happens is getting old and detracts from your points.
    I think what is clear at the moment is everyone's situation is different and each person should consider their own attitude to risk, and likelyhood of certain scenarios happening (redundancy, house price drop/increase etc).  The current disaster could be a wake up call for many people who live a life based on credit, and you'd hope we'll see more shoring up of assets.  And there will be winners and losers - sadly a lot of people are losing their jobs/homes, relationships breaking, there are also a lot of people for whom the opposite is true - a lot of money is being made on the stock markets right now with clever (if risky) investment.



     



    I think it is pretty clear to most sensible people who are not blinded by their need/desire for ever rising property prices that my call that the present property/credit bubble is not built to withstand much volatility is accurate. One account is all I have ever had though, but it is quite tragic to see obvious personalities from the debate forum etc. popping up with new accounts and still trying to tell people to dive in, thankfully it seems that the banks are now worried enough to start putting a stop to the over-borrowing nonsense. To bring things back on topic, IMO it is a very bad time to take on large debt -  for anything.
  • Wkmg
    Wkmg Posts: 232 Forumite
    Fifth Anniversary 100 Posts Name Dropper
    Ozzuk said:
    I've been reading this thread with interest, and what has become clear is Crashy's modus operandi.  Any bad event over the last 5-7 years will see an increase in their posting level, promoting the absolute worst case as fact.  Other posters will then provide rational responses which Crashy will then ignore 90% of, picking up one statement that they think they can challenge in an attempt to divert the point with an ever meandering response.  This will be interpersed with an article with a shock headline that often they haven't actually read.  This will be followed by new accounts supporting his position.
    Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this really is just agenda driven scaremongering.  I actually agree with some aspects - this is a time to be careful about over leveraging to buy property - but being chicken little everytime something bad happens is getting old and detracts from your points.
    I think what is clear at the moment is everyone's situation is different and each person should consider their own attitude to risk, and likelyhood of certain scenarios happening (redundancy, house price drop/increase etc).  The current disaster could be a wake up call for many people who live a life based on credit, and you'd hope we'll see more shoring up of assets.  And there will be winners and losers - sadly a lot of people are losing their jobs/homes, relationships breaking, there are also a lot of people for whom the opposite is true - a lot of money is being made on the stock markets right now with clever (if risky) investment.



     



    I think it is pretty clear to most sensible people who are not blinded by their need/desire for ever rising property prices that my call that the present property/credit bubble is not built to withstand much volatility is accurate. One account is all I have ever had though, but it is quite tragic to see obvious personalities from the debate forum etc. popping up with new accounts and still trying to tell people to dive in, thankfully it seems that the banks are now worried enough to start putting a stop to the over-borrowing nonsense. To bring things back on topic, IMO it is a very bad time to take on large debt -  for anything.
    It depends on the individual circumstances though. If you have a secure income (for example you work for the NHS) then it’s a good time to borrow as interest rates are low.
  • Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
    "IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!"
    This from the person that gave innumerable unsupported definitions for his "standard" definition of wealth. The irony is quite remarkable but if you want to try and console yourself by saying that I don't know what I am talking about, when I can't see that anything I have said requires specialist knowledge (and, unlike some, nor do I claim to know what's going to happen), then go ahead! I really don't care what you say about me.

    "For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends."
    Well, I don't think that's what you actually said. Nevertheless, that's still just conjecture unless you claim to have reliable data on how the coronavirus aftermath will differnentially affect different economies. As I mentioned before, the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years in a row, which I think was extremely impressive, yet during that time there was still significant emigration. Moreover, I personally have no idea what benefits EU nationals will be entitled to next year, what their average age is, whether they have families here, how many will choose to remain or how many will apply for citizenship. Do you know all this information? (As an aside, and as another poster pointed out, please also note that people born elsewhere may also now think of the UK as their 'own country' and so might simply prefer to remain, something they are perfectly entitled and welcome to do, whatever your mentality on this point is.)
    Moreover, it is still notable that none of this addresses how you claim to know that emigration is definitely going to happen to an extent necessary to override all opposing factors and give you your longed-for flood of buy to let and AirBnB properties. Or is that something you are conveniently trying to avoid addressing now?
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Seventh Anniversary Name Dropper
    Wkmg said:
    Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
    Again, maybe they think the UK is their own country? You’re starting to sound like you want them to go back to “their own country”.
    Where someone will live is decided by their legal status to live there and their desire to live there, many will choose their country of origin in the EU over a recession hit post- Brexit UK IMO, your attempt to frame that fact as somehow discriminatory just doesn`t wash I`m afraid, and reading your other posts you seem disappointed that less people may choose to live and borrow in the UK, and I`m wondering why this is?
  • Wkmg
    Wkmg Posts: 232 Forumite
    Fifth Anniversary 100 Posts Name Dropper
    edited 18 June 2020 at 4:17PM
    Wkmg said:
    Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
    Again, maybe they think the UK is their own country? You’re starting to sound like you want them to go back to “their own country”.
    Where someone will live is decided by their legal status to live there and their desire to live there, many will choose their country of origin in the EU over a recession hit post- Brexit UK IMO, your attempt to frame that fact as somehow discriminatory just doesn`t wash I`m afraid, and reading your other posts you seem disappointed that less people may choose to live and borrow in the UK, and I`m wondering why this is?
    Why will many choose their country of origin? How many? Why would I be disappointed with where people want to live? Why would I want people to borrow in the Uk? I’m 34, I’d love house prices to be half what they are. 
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Seventh Anniversary Name Dropper
    Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
    "IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!"
    This from the person that gave innumerable unsupported definitions for his "standard" definition of wealth. The irony is quite remarkable but if you want to try and console yourself by saying that I don't know what I am talking about, when I can't see that anything I have said requires specialist knowledge (and, unlike some, nor do I claim to know what's going to happen), then go ahead! I really don't care what you say about me.

    "For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends."
    Well, I don't think that's what you actually said. Nevertheless, that's still just conjecture unless you claim to have reliable data on how the coronavirus aftermath will differnentially affect different economies. As I mentioned before, the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years in a row, which I think was extremely impressive, yet during that time there was still significant emigration. Moreover, I personally have no idea what benefits EU nationals will be entitled to next year, what their average age is, whether they have families here, how many will choose to remain or how many will apply for citizenship. Do you know all this information? (As an aside, and as another poster pointed out, please also note that people born elsewhere may also now think of the UK as their 'own country' and so might simply prefer to remain, something they are perfectly entitled and welcome to do, whatever your mentality on this point is.)
    Moreover, it is still notable that none of this addresses how you claim to know that emigration is definitely going to happen to an extent necessary to override all opposing factors and give you your longed-for flood of buy to let and AirBnB properties. Or is that something you are conveniently trying to avoid addressing now?
    The end of FOM is the game changer, even if the pandemic never happened. BTW what do you think are the "opposing factors"? 
  • Where do you get yours from because it is at complete odds with what everyone else is seeing?
    BBC, where else?
    It's strange you didn't want to comment on this BBC news article, is that because it undermines your BTL end of the world euphoria? ;)
    Do you honestly think 2.5 - 3 million are going to come here from HK? Many of the people wishing to leave will have foreign passports anyway for various countries and will have their plan B drawn up long ago, and if they did leave the dispersion is going to include UK but also Australia, Taiwan, U.S, Canada etc.etc. Don`t you understand that if HK is basically evacuated we are going to see major disruption to global credit markets and hence lending including mortgage and BTL lending? This along with Brexit and the inevitable recession more than neutralises any "benefit" from an influx of people who you hope are desperate for accommodation! (did it ever cross your mind that many choosing to come back to the U.K already own a property here anyway and don`t need to buy or rent?)
    so where are all of these empty properties that these people already own?

    If they are not empty and are rented out then surely the current tenants will have to find another property once the property owner returns to the UK?


    If the tenant finds another property back home in Poland for example (or goes there to live with family or already owns there) where does that leave your "fixed demand" theory?
    Yeah but, if this, if that, if, if, if, if...
    Your 'points' are essentially just far-reaching conjecture. Up until last year the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years, a better record than France or Germany, yet overall there was nevertheless still quite significant emigration. To me this suggests that trends are difficult to predict and so please do tell how you know what the pattern of migration will look like for multiple populations as a consequence of coronavirus. I don't have any idea what proportion of what nationalities own versus rent, for example, or what proportion of overseas nationals may choose to stay or what the extent and length of coronavirus impact on different countries' economies will be, and so I wouldn't be tempted to make the assertions that you dream up. Strangely, however, the little question of evidence seems to be quite irrelevant to you.
    TonyMMM said:
    Nationwide are raising minimum deposit to 15% for FTB ....says something about where they think house prices are headed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/nationwide-triples-minimum-deposit-for-uk-first-time-buyers

    Think I posted something about that a couple of days ago, should be 20-30% IMO.
    The harder it is for people to buy and sell houses the more the existing rental market will benefit. So I can't help but think that if you get your wish of 20-30% deposit requirements then you won't get your wish of a flood of buy to let properties coming to the market. You might have to decide which would bring you greater pleasure and focus all your efforts accordingly.

    So it is "far reaching conjecture" that if someone from another country loses their job here they could give up their BTL tenancy and go home to their own country? 
    "Could", no, that's a reasonable theory. "Would", yes, because there's no indication of how settled they are. They might have kids at school, might have extended family here, might be confident of getting another job etc. etc.
    However that's just yet another attempt at a misdirection because, unless I have underestimated your comprehension skills, you should have been able to realise that that's not the point I was making. To reiterate for you, what is pure and far-reaching conjecture is the concept that there will definitely be such a trend that is so extensive that it is able to overpower all counter-pressures to cause your 'guaranteed' and long-desired market "flooding" of buy to let and Airbnb properties.
    IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!
    For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends.
    "IME people who can`t make a clear point in a couple of sentences don`t really know what they are talking about, and if you add in a sarcastic patronising tone then it is a dead cert that they don`t!"
    This from the person that gave innumerable unsupported definitions for his "standard" definition of wealth. The irony is quite remarkable but if you want to try and console yourself by saying that I don't know what I am talking about, when I can't see that anything I have said requires specialist knowledge (and, unlike some, nor do I claim to know what's going to happen), then go ahead! I really don't care what you say about me.

    "For clarity my point was that a lot of younger people from EE will probably be better off sitting out a pandemic, end of FOM and rising unemployment in their own country if they have family there rather than trying to pay a UK landlord with benefits they may even no longer be entitled to after the year ends."
    Well, I don't think that's what you actually said. Nevertheless, that's still just conjecture unless you claim to have reliable data on how the coronavirus aftermath will differnentially affect different economies. As I mentioned before, the Polish economy grew steadily for 28 years in a row, which I think was extremely impressive, yet during that time there was still significant emigration. Moreover, I personally have no idea what benefits EU nationals will be entitled to next year, what their average age is, whether they have families here, how many will choose to remain or how many will apply for citizenship. Do you know all this information? (As an aside, and as another poster pointed out, please also note that people born elsewhere may also now think of the UK as their 'own country' and so might simply prefer to remain, something they are perfectly entitled and welcome to do, whatever your mentality on this point is.)
    Moreover, it is still notable that none of this addresses how you claim to know that emigration is definitely going to happen to an extent necessary to override all opposing factors and give you your longed-for flood of buy to let and AirBnB properties. Or is that something you are conveniently trying to avoid addressing now?
    The end of FOM is the game changer, even if the pandemic never happened. BTW what do you think are the "opposing factors"? 
    I personally think that will depend on what any trade agreement looks like and to what extent EU citizens that have remained/arrived in the four years since the referendum feel settled. You might be right but I just do not see such certainties.
    Re example opposing factors, I thought this had been covered; changing holiday habits, rental demand reportedly increasing in some areas, banks tightening up on mortgages. If more info is needed it's probably easiest  to look at previous posts.
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