New Car Prices after lockdown

motorguy

Jonesya said:

Hard to call but a few further factors on new car sales:
- 50% of new cars go to company car fleets, will companies continue to replace their fleets at the same rate, or will they extend existing leases? 
- the rental companies buy new cars as they turn over their rental fleets, will they be buying as many as normal?
- most private purchases of new cars are bought on finance, will the economic situation and job uncertainty affect not only willingness to buy but willingness to lend?
- Related to above, there's also the issue around expectations of residual values because if future residuals are expected to rise of fall, that would then be reflected in cost of PCP or PCH deals making them more or less affordable.

You sure about that?

Herzlos

In any recession (which this is going to have to be), sales of new cars plummet for a while (people buying older cars, keeping them longer) and used car prices increase (potentially not as much as they dropped since February though). Then in 3 years new car prices have recovered but there are less 3 year old cars on the market and thus the price of used cars stays high.

So if you're looking at buying new/nearly new from stock, or ex-lease when they finally start collecting them, you could get an amazing deal.

If you're looking to sell a used car and then buy another used car you may not gain much from it.

shaun_from_Africa

motorguy said:

Jonesya said:

Hard to call but a few further factors on new car sales:
- 50% of new cars go to company car fleets, will companies continue to replace their fleets at the same rate, or will they extend existing leases? 

You sure about that?

If the figures given here:
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/manufacturer-news/2018/09/05/fleet-and-business-new-car-sales-up-23
for 2017 and 2018 are anything to go by, I would say that Jonesya is about right.

Jonesya

motorguy said:

Jonesya said:

- 50% of new cars go to company car fleets, will companies continue to replace their fleets at the same rate, or will they extend existing leases? .....

You sure about that?

Yes, it was 53% sold to fleets in 2019, so I think I was close enough for a general discussion.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/01/record-year-for-zero-emission-cars-fails-to-reboot-uk-market-as-sector-calls-for-supportive-policies-to-boost-uptake/

born_again

Scrapit said:

born_again said:

Scrapit said:

I can't see the prices falling much. Supply and demand, there's no supply currently which meets the no demand. At least one of those will change at some point.

And when all the PCP/Lease cars are picked up and sold. 2nd hand market will hit rock bottom.

But they are not new which the th read is about.  And pcp has been doing that to the market for a while.

It is, as it will depend on how many of these owners go and get another new car. Or decide that they might as well save money and get a cheaper 2nd hand one.

motorguy

Jonesya said:

motorguy said:

Jonesya said:

- 50% of new cars go to company car fleets, will companies continue to replace their fleets at the same rate, or will they extend existing leases? .....

You sure about that?

Yes, it was 53% sold to fleets in 2019, so I think I was close enough for a general discussion.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/01/record-year-for-zero-emission-cars-fails-to-reboot-uk-market-as-sector-calls-for-supportive-policies-to-boost-uptake/

Oh.  Interesting.  I'd never have said it was that high. 

50Twuncle

Herzlos said:

In any recession (which this is going to have to be), sales of new cars plummet for a while (people buying older cars, keeping them longer) and used car prices increase (potentially not as much as they dropped since February though). Then in 3 years new car prices have recovered but there are less 3 year old cars on the market and thus the price of used cars stays high.

So if you're looking at buying new/nearly new from stock, or ex-lease when they finally start collecting them, you could get an amazing deal.

If you're looking to sell a used car and then buy another used car you may not gain much from it.

Thanks - that is what I meant and plan to do......

I have a 3 year old Suzuki Baleno - and am considering a new Suzuki Vitara - do you think that any bargains will be offered ?

Herzlos

50Twuncle said:

Thanks - that is what I meant and plan to do......

I have a 3 year old Suzuki Baleno - and am considering a new Suzuki Vitara - do you think that any bargains will be offered ?

Almost certainly, if you can find a Vitara in stock somewhere and it's not in high demand.
Small, cheap 3 year old cars will sell pretty well.

searchlight123

50Twuncle said:

According to Honest John - used car prices have increased in the last few months

This implies that it could be a good move to sell a used car, now and purchase a new car in a few months time ?

and drive what in the meantime?

AdrianC

motorguy said:

Jonesya said:

motorguy said:

Jonesya said:

- 50% of new cars go to company car fleets, will companies continue to replace their fleets at the same rate, or will they extend existing leases? .....

You sure about that?

Yes, it was 53% sold to fleets in 2019, so I think I was close enough for a general discussion.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/01/record-year-for-zero-emission-cars-fails-to-reboot-uk-market-as-sector-calls-for-supportive-policies-to-boost-uptake/

Oh.  Interesting.  I'd never have said it was that high. 

Lower than it used to be, before tax changes bopped the "perk" car on the head.