Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

ProDave

Time to re assess the elastic properties of the cat?

The last month the stock markets have just about marked time.  Now they seem very much down.

My view. the dead cat bounce is over.  Reality is setting in. As lockdowns ease, cases are rising. I fear lockdowns will be back very soon.  If so I fear there will be no more government support.

The reality of the scale of devastation to the economy is starting to sink in pushing shares down.

I now feel the crash will resume downwards.

Do others feel the same?

Seldonista

Stock sale!!!

Prism

ProDave said:

Time to re assess the elastic properties of the cat?

The last month the stock markets have just about marked time.  Now they seem very much down.

My view. the dead cat bounce is over.  Reality is setting in. As lockdowns ease, cases are rising. I fear lockdowns will be back very soon.  If so I fear there will be no more government support.

The reality of the scale of devastation to the economy is starting to sink in pushing shares down.

I now feel the crash will resume downwards.

Do others feel the same?

It depends which markets you mean. The US markets are still very much rising, up about 4% in the last month. We haven't seen those gains as the pound is up about 5% vs the dollar. Then just when it looks like its running out of steam, tonight the big tech companies reported and Apple is up 6%, Google 1%, Amazon 5% and Facebook 7%. Emerging markets are up about 4% this month. It doesn't look over just yet.

Thrugelmir

Prism said:

ProDave said:

Time to re assess the elastic properties of the cat?

The last month the stock markets have just about marked time.  Now they seem very much down.

My view. the dead cat bounce is over.  Reality is setting in. As lockdowns ease, cases are rising. I fear lockdowns will be back very soon.  If so I fear there will be no more government support.

The reality of the scale of devastation to the economy is starting to sink in pushing shares down.

I now feel the crash will resume downwards.

Do others feel the same?

It depends which markets you mean. The US markets are still very much rising, up about 4% in the last month. We haven't seen those gains as the pound is up about 5% vs the dollar. Then just when it looks like its running out of steam, tonight the big tech companies reported and Apple is up 6%, Google 1%, Amazon 5% and Facebook 7%. Emerging markets are up about 4% this month. It doesn't look over just yet.

As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the economy the stock market will continue to rise. 

Prism

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

ProDave said:

Time to re assess the elastic properties of the cat?

The last month the stock markets have just about marked time.  Now they seem very much down.

My view. the dead cat bounce is over.  Reality is setting in. As lockdowns ease, cases are rising. I fear lockdowns will be back very soon.  If so I fear there will be no more government support.

The reality of the scale of devastation to the economy is starting to sink in pushing shares down.

I now feel the crash will resume downwards.

Do others feel the same?

It depends which markets you mean. The US markets are still very much rising, up about 4% in the last month. We haven't seen those gains as the pound is up about 5% vs the dollar. Then just when it looks like its running out of steam, tonight the big tech companies reported and Apple is up 6%, Google 1%, Amazon 5% and Facebook 7%. Emerging markets are up about 4% this month. It doesn't look over just yet.

As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the economy the stock market will continue to rise. 

I don't think much of this is fed money (yet). Not many share buy backs going on at the moment and these companies don't exactly need fed loans or use a lot of debt. The fed money is bailing out the struggling companies which is preventing the rest of the economy tanking which is keeping the 'hope' high - possibly correctly so.

Seldonista

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

ProDave said:

Time to re assess the elastic properties of the cat?

The last month the stock markets have just about marked time.  Now they seem very much down.

My view. the dead cat bounce is over.  Reality is setting in. As lockdowns ease, cases are rising. I fear lockdowns will be back very soon.  If so I fear there will be no more government support.

The reality of the scale of devastation to the economy is starting to sink in pushing shares down.

I now feel the crash will resume downwards.

Do others feel the same?

It depends which markets you mean. The US markets are still very much rising, up about 4% in the last month. We haven't seen those gains as the pound is up about 5% vs the dollar. Then just when it looks like its running out of steam, tonight the big tech companies reported and Apple is up 6%, Google 1%, Amazon 5% and Facebook 7%. Emerging markets are up about 4% this month. It doesn't look over just yet.

As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the economy the stock market will continue to rise. 

Thrugelmir are you shorting anything?

fiisch

I'm thinking, as someone with a propensity to gamble, it has got to be worth a punt and sell some of my modest SIPP holding tomorrow morning when the markets open.

Unless someone pops up next week with a vaccine, or governments declare an alternative strategy to battling Coronavirus other than lockdown, the market is surely only going to move one way over the next few weeks?  Therefore the potential gain from selling and buying back in at a later date seems to me to heavily outweigh the possible benefits of staying invested.

Very tempted to sell 50% of my largest SIPP holding (Vanguard 100) to try and profit from what I think is an impending crash, but the old adage of never try to time the market is ringing loudly in my ears.  One to sleep on I think...

Seldonista

fiisch said:

I'm thinking, as someone with a propensity to gamble, it has got to be worth a punt and sell some of my modest SIPP holding tomorrow morning when the markets open.

Unless someone pops up next week with a vaccine, or governments declare an alternative strategy to battling Coronavirus other than lockdown, the market is surely only going to move one way over the next few weeks?  Therefore the potential gain from selling and buying back in at a later date seems to me to heavily outweigh the possible benefits of staying invested.

Very tempted to sell 50% of my largest SIPP holding (Vanguard 100) to try and profit from what I think is an impending crash, but the old adage of never try to time the market is ringing loudly in my ears.  One to sleep on I think...

Do you trust yourself to know when to get back in? Stock returns are more correlated with last year's rainfall than they are with people's opinions (they actually are as well).

Bravepants

Hmmm..rising CV-19 cases in the US, the big four tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook) under investigation for monopoly, second-quarter results coming in, increasing lockdown in the UK....what could possibly go wrong?

cfw1994

Bravepants said:

Hmmm..rising CV-19 cases in the US, the big four tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook) under investigation for monopoly, astonishingly good (for companies in the right sectors) -quarter results coming in, increasing lockdown in the UK....what could possibly go wrong?

There....edited for accuracy!
Covid hasn’t gone away....and parts of the world are struggling with rising cases.
Does that mean the economy is screwed?  

I’m not so sure.   

It does, as you say, mean sporadic lockdowns recurring, & who knows what winter will bring for us....but I remain an optimist at heart: human nature makes us resilient, when one industry struggles (E.g., ICE car), another one emerges (E.g., EV plus renewable energy).
I can certainly envisage a bumpy ride for 12-18 months, but my mid- to long-term view is that this is a great time to be investing.  Could be wrong, of course....

og, and on those investigations.....why is it there is only ONE Monopolies Commission?