Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

theGrinch

even money

EdGasketTheSecond

Prism said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Prism said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Prism said:

I think it will go up from here - I imagine I'm looking for at least a 100% gain from this point.

Warren Buffet thinks its going down and so do I:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/warren-buffett-stock-market-indicator-finance-crash-a9493361.html

You realise that Warren Buffet article is referring to 2001? To be clear, I was talking about the standard 5-10 year equities investment time. Everything else is just noise

No it's not 2001, it's right now; just google it. (the article was from late yesterday; do pay attention)

"On Thursday, the indicator was reported to have reached a historic 179% as the market rebounded from the coronavirus sell-off, well above the average reading of 107% over the past 20 years.

It has a strong history of predicting when the market may fall. Before the 2008 financial crisis, the indicator capped 100%."

The FED can only prop up the market so much; take care.

I'm keeping up very well thanks . The article certainly did come out yesterday and used a quote from Warren Buffett from 2001. It made no claims about his current thinking but unfortunately you misinterpreted it. 
I guess we shall hear a little more about what Warren Buffett thinks tomorrow but to be honest, apart from the fact he is an interesting guy, whatever he says has no bearing on what I will be doing - which is continuing like normal.

Not misinterpreted at all. Granted the article was about the Buffet indicator but common sense tells you he is not going to be a net buyer of stocks when his value indicator is flashing red in over-valued territory.

So now we have the confirmation, he was a net seller of stocks in April and remains in cash:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sold-6-billion-stock-april-2020-5-1029156743

TemporaryUsernameMay2020

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Granted the article was about the Buffet indicator but common sense tells you he is not going to be a net buyer of stocks when his value indicator is flashing red in over-valued territory.

So now we have the confirmation, he was a net seller of stocks in April and remains in cash:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sold-6-billion-stock-april-2020-5-1029156743

So that is net sales amounting to not quite 1% of the assets Buffett is managing.

As always, most of those assets are the ownership (in whole or in part) of productive businesses. As always, there's also a significant amount of cash. As always, there's no gold.

If you think Buffett agrees with you, you're the one smoking crack

Prism

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Prism said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Prism said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Prism said:

I think it will go up from here - I imagine I'm looking for at least a 100% gain from this point.

Warren Buffet thinks its going down and so do I:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/warren-buffett-stock-market-indicator-finance-crash-a9493361.html

You realise that Warren Buffet article is referring to 2001? To be clear, I was talking about the standard 5-10 year equities investment time. Everything else is just noise

No it's not 2001, it's right now; just google it. (the article was from late yesterday; do pay attention)

"On Thursday, the indicator was reported to have reached a historic 179% as the market rebounded from the coronavirus sell-off, well above the average reading of 107% over the past 20 years.

It has a strong history of predicting when the market may fall. Before the 2008 financial crisis, the indicator capped 100%."

The FED can only prop up the market so much; take care.

I'm keeping up very well thanks . The article certainly did come out yesterday and used a quote from Warren Buffett from 2001. It made no claims about his current thinking but unfortunately you misinterpreted it. 
I guess we shall hear a little more about what Warren Buffett thinks tomorrow but to be honest, apart from the fact he is an interesting guy, whatever he says has no bearing on what I will be doing - which is continuing like normal.

Not misinterpreted at all. Granted the article was about the Buffet indicator but common sense tells you he is not going to be a net buyer of stocks when his value indicator is flashing red in over-valued territory.

So now we have the confirmation, he was a net seller of stocks in April and remains in cash:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sold-6-billion-stock-april-2020-5-1029156743

I love the way you just grab a headline that supports your view and don't bother to dig deeper. How a quarterly report (ending march 31st 2020) tells you that they sold stocks in April I'm not sure. Also even if you read the report it doesn't tell you anything really about sales or purchases made this year - just that the cash balance has grown which could be for many reasons. It doesn't look like he has bought much but likely hasn't sold either. Maybe he will answer that question tonight. Until then we just don't know.

EdGasketTheSecond

gays_on_crack said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Granted the article was about the Buffet indicator but common sense tells you he is not going to be a net buyer of stocks when his value indicator is flashing red in over-valued territory.

So now we have the confirmation, he was a net seller of stocks in April and remains in cash:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sold-6-billion-stock-april-2020-5-1029156743

 As always, there's no gold.

If you think Buffett agrees with you, you're the one smoking crack

But he has $1Bn of silver; maybe for a different reason to me but we both agree silver is a good investment currently

TemporaryUsernameMay2020

EdGasketTheSecond said:

But he has $1Bn of silver; maybe for a different reason to me but we both agree silver is a good investment currently

A quick duckduckgo (other search engines are available) suggests that he bought a lot of silver in 1997-8 (a lot, meaning: he had perhaps 2% of Berkshire Hathaway's assets at the time in silver) and sold it in 2006.

This is you:

bowlhead99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

But he has $1Bn of silver; maybe for a different reason to me but we both agree silver is a good investment currently

Berkshire' Hathaway's first quarter (10-Q) report for 2020 was published yesterday. It has a $760bn balance sheet. Can you show me where on the balance sheet the $1bn of silver is sitting? Or where in the transcript of the BH annual investor meeting he or his colleagues mention gold or silver being a worthwhile investment?

Or are you just going off the fact that within his portfolios he has some industrial metals businesses which might have held a small stock (less than a billion) of silver? That would surely be somewhat different to your attitude of trying to shape your portfolio around a 70% gold and silver allocation.

EdGasketTheSecond

Yeah, yeah, he sold silver in 2006 and it is thought the silver formed the basis of the SLV silver ETF; I got it wrong, my bad.

On the subject of this thread from what I gather of the Berkshire Hatheway meeting, Warren says the average guy should invest in the S&P. He himself was a net seller in April and has not invested as basically nothing worth investing in at the moment. So overall I would say he is slightly bearish. He also sold all airline stocks.

He was obviously keen to talk up America and how great it is; but then he has a lot invested there so I guess you would expect that unlike Elon Musk who was more candid about tesla's share price.

Sailtheworld

According to reports this morning Warren Buffett has sold off all his airline stakes. It's good to see that even someone who does have an investment edge is able to admit their long term portfolio was overly concentrated in airlines and at risk from 'events'.

He does appear to have thrown out the baby with the bathwater by selling all his stake in haste but what do I know.

george4064

Sailtheworld said:

According to reports this morning Warren Buffett has sold off all his airline stakes. It's good to see that even someone who does have an investment edge is able to admit their long term portfolio was overly concentrated in airlines and at risk from 'events'.

He does appear to have thrown out the baby with the bathwater by selling all his stake in haste but what do I know.

Indeed, in the medium to long term he also thinks that people will change their travel behaviour and hence airliners will have reduced demand from this changing behaviour.